Outlining the 2025 Bullrun & Related Monetary Policy

Vocabulary flashcards covering key monetary-policy and crypto-market terms highlighted in the lecture notes.

2025 Bullrun

The anticipated cryptocurrency market upswing influenced by current Federal Reserve policies and expected to peak around shifts in QT scheduled for mid-2025.

Bull Market

A prolonged period of rising asset prices, marked by investor confidence and strong demand.

Altcoin

Any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, often more sensitive to liquidity and monetary policy changes.

Blow-off Top

A sharp, rapid price surge followed by an equally swift decline, signaling the end of a bull run.

Distribution Phase

A period in which large holders gradually sell into market strength, flattening price growth—seen in altcoins during 2021.

Monetary Policy

Central-bank actions, such as adjusting interest rates and balance-sheet operations, that influence money supply and economic conditions.

Quantitative Easing (QE)

The Fed’s purchase of financial assets to inject liquidity, lower yields, and stimulate markets.

Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The Fed’s sale or runoff of assets to withdraw liquidity, raise yields, and cool markets.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

A record of the Fed’s asset holdings; its expansion signals QE, while contraction signals QT.

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)

The Fed body that sets U.S. monetary policy, including interest-rate targets and QE/QT decisions.

Interest Rates

The cost of borrowing money; rising rates generally suppress risk assets, while low rates boost them.

Treasury Securities

U.S. government bonds of varying maturities used by the Fed in QE and QT operations.

Market Yield (1-Year Constant Maturity)

The daily interest rate investors demand for holding a one-year Treasury, a key short-term benchmark (4.16 % on Jan 9 2025).

Weighted Average Maturity

The average time until Treasury securities mature, weighted by their dollar value, indicating the duration profile of debt.

Liquidity

The ease with which assets can be bought or sold without affecting price; increased by QE and reduced by QT.

Risk-on Markets

Environments where investors favor higher-volatility assets such as equities and altcoins, often fueled by abundant liquidity.

Maturity Profile

The distribution of outstanding Treasury debt across different time horizons (e.g., 0-3 mo, 1-3 yr, >10 yr).

Government Spending Reduction

Efforts, including those championed by Elon Musk & DOGE advocates, to cut fiscal outlays and potentially curb inflation.

3-5 Year Bonds

Medium-term Treasuries heavily purchased during the 2017 QE phase, influencing that cycle’s liquidity.

Zero Percent Rates

Near-0 % interest-rate policy in 2020–2021 that magnified QE’s effect and extended the crypto bull market.

2025 Bullrun

The anticipated cryptocurrency market upswing influenced by current Federal Reserve policies and expected to peak around shifts in QT scheduled for mid-2025.

Bull Market

A prolonged period of rising asset prices, marked by investor confidence and strong demand.

Altcoin

Any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, often more sensitive to liquidity and monetary policy changes.

Blow-off Top

A sharp, rapid price surge followed by an equally swift decline, signaling the end of a bull run.

Distribution Phase

A period in which large holders gradually sell into market strength, flattening price growth—seen in altcoins during 2021.

Monetary Policy

Central-bank actions, such as adjusting interest rates and balance-sheet operations, that influence money supply and economic conditions.

Quantitative Easing (QE)

The Fed’s purchase of financial assets to inject liquidity, lower yields, and stimulate markets.

Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The Fed’s sale or runoff of assets to withdraw liquidity, raise yields, and cool markets.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

A record of the Fed’s asset holdings; its expansion signals QE, while contraction signals QT.

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)

The Fed body that sets U.S. monetary policy, including interest-rate targets and QE/QT decisions.

Interest Rates

The cost of borrowing money; rising rates generally suppress risk assets, while low rates boost them.

Treasury Securities

U.S. government bonds of varying maturities used by the Fed in QE and QT operations.

Market Yield (1-Year Constant Maturity)

The daily interest rate investors demand for holding a one-year Treasury, a key short-term benchmark (4.16 % on Jan 9 2025).

Weighted Average Maturity

The average time until Treasury securities mature, weighted by their dollar value, indicating the duration profile of debt.

Liquidity

The ease with which assets can be bought or sold without affecting price; increased by QE and reduced by QT.

Risk-on Markets

Environments where investors favor higher-volatility assets such as equities and altcoins, often fueled by abundant liquidity.

Maturity Profile

The distribution of outstanding Treasury debt across different time horizons (e.g., 0-3 mo, 1-3 yr, >10 yr).

Government Spending Reduction

Efforts, including those championed by Elon Musk & DOGE advocates, to cut fiscal outlays and potentially curb inflation.

3-5 Year Bonds

Medium-term Treasuries heavily purchased during the 2017 QE phase, influencing that cycle’s liquidity.

Zero Percent Rates

Near-0 % interest-rate policy in 2020–2021 that magnified QE’s effect and extended the crypto bull market.

Risk-off Markets

Environments where investors prefer safer, less volatile assets, often in response to economic uncertainty or reduced liquidity.

Federal Funds Rate

The target interest rate set by the FOMC for overnight borrowing between banks, influencing other interest rates across the economy.

Inflation

The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling; a key concern for central banks.

Bitcoin Halving

A predetermined event in Bitcoin's protocol that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half, occurring approximately every four years and historically coinciding with bull markets.

Yield Curve Inversion

A bond market phenomenon where short-term Treasury yields rise above long-term yields, which has historically signaled an impending economic recession.

Taper Tantrum

The 2013 bond market sell-off triggered by the Federal Reserve's announcement of a potential reduction (tapering) in its quantitative easing (QE) program, causing sharp increases in Treasury yields.

Real Interest Rate

The nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation, reflecting the true cost of borrowing or the true return on saving. Calculated as Nominal\;Interest\;Rate - Inflation\;Rate

The mechanism by which a stablecoin maintains its value relative to a fiat currency (e.g., USD) or other stable asset, often through collateralization or algorithmic stability.