GPLA #3

Waves of Democracy

a group of transactions that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber the transitions in the opposite direction during that period of time. A wave also involves liberalization or partial democratization in political systems that do not become fully democratic

timing of third wave of democratization

first: 1828-1926, second: 1960-1974, third: 1974-

non-democratic regimes

autocratic; no elections, ex. profirio diaz. oligarchies; elections limited to few, ex. chiles parliamentary government. semi-democracies; elections free but not fair

close hegemony

ruling group exercises authority and influence over all aspects of society

Competitive oligarchy

Electoral regime where common system put in place for the nonviolent resolution of disputes among elites. Elections are fair but not free, candidates restricted to socio-economic elite and suffrage restricted to minority population

polyarchy

rule by many; government having three or more rulers

Electoral Democracy

minimalist democracies, focus on procedures

Liberal Democracy

focus on procedural, elections (free, fair, and regular and substantive requirements, minority protections; constain on authority, rule of law

procedural definition of democracy (Dahl)

emphasizes the procedures and processes by which decisions are made in a political unit, rather than focusing on specific outcomes or the nature of the people themselves

Dahl's constitutional guarantees

freedom to form and join organizations, freedom of expression, the right to vote, the right of political leaders to compete for votes and support, alternative sources of information, eligibility for public office, free and fair elections, institutions for making government policies depends on elections and other expressions of popular preferance

Delegative Democracy

hybrid regime that is democratic but involves the electorate "delegating" significant authority to a government

presidential form of government

the legislature makes the proposals and the executive (president) signs or vetoes them

parliamentary form of government

the executive (government) control the agenda, and the legislature (parliament) accepts or rejects proposals

pros and cons of presidentialism in latin america

pros: constitution follows the US model; the US was the most successful republic at the time. cons; once adopted institutions are not easy to change, institutional inertia; structure expectations of actors

Hyper-presidentialism

a system in which presidents exercise virtually unchecked authority due to the absence of horizontal accountability

presidential powers (trends)

executive lawmaking, elimination of term limits, agenda setting

Coalitional presidentialism

Party systems such as Chile in which military coups are off the table, and strong parties work with one another in order to pass legislation through.

institutional innovations in latin america

nomination and selection of presidential candidates; electoral rules to elect presidents; recall referendum; re-election rules

new presidential instability

presidencies interrupted (Valenzuela 2004), frequent inability of presidents to complete terms

decree powers

issue legally binding regulations and laws through executive decrees, often without direct legislative approval

Impeachment (in Latin America!)

lucio gutierrez; ecudaor 2005, fernando lugo; paraguay 2012

re-election principle (trends in LA); continuismo

move towards re-election, non limits. continuismo, tendency of leaders to want to continue power; pre revolutionary mexico: the tendency of leaders wanting to remain in office

bilateral veto game (president-legislature)

political or institutional situation where two powerful actors or institutions each have the ability to block or veto significant changes or policies, even if one of them wants reform. often creates a deadlock

constitutional powers

powers of the president (legislative and non legislative

partisan powers

size of the presidential legislative contingent, level of polarization among the parties in the legislature, responsiveness of the presidential; legislative contingent to his or her leadership

political party

their primary goal is the conquest of power or a share in its exercise. they draw their support from a broad base in contrast to pressure groups, which represent a limited number with a particular or private interest

party system

"Parties make for a "system", then only when they are parts (in the plural); and a party system is precisely the system of interactions resulting from inter-party competition. That is, the system in question bears on the relatedness of parties to each other, on how each party is a function (in the mathematical sense) of the other parties and reacts, competitively or otherwise, to the other parties."

party-system formation in Latin America; (compared to Europe?)

development of party systems in LA did not follow european pattern. not rooted on cleavage structures, did not follow an evolutionary path of party replacement, mass-based parties are not class-bred

catch-all parties

broad electoral appeals to multiple sectors and groups pragmatic rather than ideological

Electoral Rules

direct, plurality, run-off (presidential), compulsory voting in most countries

compulsory voting; trends and impact in LA turnout

high (average 70%), very high in the founding elections, decline over time in several countries

level of electoral turnout and competitiveness

how close elections are, elections are highly competitive in the region

pink tide in LA (timing, scope, examples)

victories of left and left center parties throughout the region. begins with hugo chavez in 1998 venezuela. expansive wave of of leftist party victories

Civic Voluntarism Model

A theory claiming that political activism can be explained by the time, money, and civic skills that people have. findings: men vote more than women, younger and older people vote less, married vote more, black people vote less, catholics vote more than any other religious denomination

Main factors explaining turnout in Latin America

individual factors, compulsory voting, party system polarization

clientelism (definition); differences with pork-barrel and redistributive policies (examples)

qui pro quo method of contingent exchange. parties use targeted inducements to mobilize electoral support

Democratic Backsliding

denotes the state-led debilitation or elimination of any of the political institutions that sustain an existing democracy

Types of Backsliding

old: coup d'etat, executive coups, election day fraud. new: promissory coups, executive aggrandizement, strategic harassment and manipulation

Competitive authoritarianism (definition, examples)

retain democracies formal features in practice, failing to meet its minimum standards elections are insufficient to designate a regime as a democracy. examples: Venezuela under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, Nicaragua under Daniel Ortega, Honduras under Juan Orlando Hernández, El Salvador under Nayib Bukele

Features of party system (effective Number of Parties (ENP); polarization; institutionalization)

ENP; the number of parties that meaningfully compete in elections and hold seats in the legislature, polarization; Measures the ideological distance between the main political parties, institutionalization; the stability and predictability of the party system and outlines four dimensions (Stability in Interparty Competition, Strong Party Roots in Society, Legitimacy of Parties and Elections, Party Organization Strength

Party system institutionalization (definition)

the degree to which a party system is stable, predictable, and embedded in society over time. It captures how firmly political parties and patterns of competition are established in a democracy

Dimensions of party institutionalization:

Core dimension: stability of inter-party competition. Other dimensions: party rootedness in society, legitimacy of parties, solid party organization

measure of stability of inter-party competition

electoral volatility, persistence of major parties, continuity in coalition patterns

measure of party rootedness in society

survey data, sociological linkages, geographic or demographic voting patterns

measure of legitimacy of parties and elections

public opinion surveys, elite behavior, low incidence of anti system rhetoric

measure of solid party organization

presence of party infrastructure, rules and procedures, programmatic coherence, longevity

electoral volatility (measure: Penderson Index)

measures how much vote shares shift between elections. It captures the degree of change in party support, helping us understand how stable or unstable a party system is over time. (high volatility = unstable party system, low volatility = more institutionalized system)

party replacement

the degree to which new or previously minor political parties replace established parties in elections

Stable party volatility

changes in vote shares among existing, established parties from one election to the next—without the entry or exit of major new parties

Which type of volatility is more common in LA? When?

Party replacement volatility dominated in times of instability. (1990-2000)

Stable volatility appears in more institutionalized democracies in the region (Uruguay/Chile)

Correlation between economic performance and electoral volatility

the worse the economy, the more likely voters are to "punish" existing parties, leading to higher and more destabilizing volatility

Crisis of representation (definition)

a situation in which political parties lose their capacity to:

Represent the interests and demands of organized social groups (e.g., labor, peasants, the urban poor).

Mobilize these groups effectively within democratic institutions.

Maintain legitimacy and trust among broad segments of the electorate.

Crisis of representation (manifestations)

Erosion of Programmatic Linkages, Weakening of Traditional Party-Society Ties, Electoral Volatility, Rise of Outsider or Populist Candidates, Protest and Anti-Party Sentiment (i.e. Hugo Chavez, Alberto Fujimori)

Party system crisis in LA in the 1990s: examples of collapse of party system

venezuela and hugo chavez, alberto fujimori in peru, Bolivia and evo morales

How parties represent citizens

through party-society linkages—the mechanisms that connect organized social groups and voters to the state via political parties

Party-society linkages; dimensions of party-society linkages (level of association, degree of contingency)

the channels through which political parties mobilize support, represent interests, and maintain ties with social groups or constituencies. dimensions; levels of of association (institutionalization), degree of contingency

Political Brokerage and Patron-Clientelism (characteristics, examples)

characteristics: intermediary role, resource distribution, flexible and informal, transactional. examples: Argentina and Peronist party machines, Mexico and the PRI's dominance, Brazilian neighborhood association

Encapsulating linkages (characteristics, examples)

characteristics: combination of ideology and patronage, moderate institutionalization, selective but broader inclusion, stability and adaptation. examples: Mexico and the PRI, Brazil and the PMBD and PT, Argentina and Peronism

Programmatic linkages (characteristics, examples)

characteristics: ideologically driven representation, long term policy focus, accountability and responsiveness, broad based mobilization, institutionalized political parties. examples: workers party (pt) in Brazil, AD in venezuela, pdc in Chile, pan in Mexico, mas in Bolivia

Personalistic and Charismatic Bonds (characteristics, examples)

leaders charisma, weak institutionalization of political parties, clientelist practices, populism and direct appeals to the people, personalized political machines. examples: Hugo Chaves in venezuela, alberto fujimori in Peru, Juan peron in Argentina, Rafael correa in Ecuador

Marketing linkages (characteristics, examples)

characteristics: media, targeted messaging, emotionally driven appeals, voters as consumers, short term strategies and issue focus. examples: Mexico (pan, votor por el cambio campaign), Brazil (PSDB - Fernando Henrique Cardoso's 1994 and 1998 Campaigns), Chile (Sebastián Piñera's 2009 Presidential Campaign), Argentina (Mauricio Macri's 2015 Campaign)

Robert's description of the transformation of party-society linkages in recent Latin America-trends of transformation

Decline of Traditional Institutionalized Linkages (1980s-1990s), Rise of New Forms of Linkages: Personalistic and Charismatic Bonds, Emergence of Clientelism and Patronage Politics, Emergence of New Political Actors and Movements, Expansion of Marketing and Media-Based Linkages, Decline of Ideological and Programmatic Linkages

Civic Voluntarism Model (main factors)

resources, motivation, and social networks, and political context

brokers (referents or punteros in Argentina); what is their role in clientelism? How do theyconnect with voters?

roles: Intermediaries Between Voters and Political Parties, Provision of Material Goods and Services, Loyalty and Control, Social and Political Control. They connect with voters through personalized relationships, local influence, and patronage networks

connection between vulnerability and clientelism

The connection between vulnerability and clientelism lies in how the system of clientelism thrives on the economic, social, and political vulnerabilities of certain groups. By offering material benefits in exchange for loyalty, clientelism reinforces dependence and loyalty to political actors or parties that may not address the broader causes of the group's vulnerability. While it can provide short-term relief for vulnerable individuals, clientelism often perpetuates cycles of dependency, limits political efficacy, and hinders deeper democratic development or social change

Social desirability issues in research on clientelism. What empirical strategy was used by theauthors in this research?

empirical strategies to mitigate social desirability bias and ensure the accuracy of their findings regarding clientelism. i.e. indirect questions, confidentiality, measures of behavior and observational data, survey experiments, triangulation

What do we learn about the poor and clientelism? (Murillo et al's article)

that clientelism has a complex relationship with the poor. On one hand, it offers vulnerable groups much-needed material support and facilitates political participation in contexts where they might otherwise be excluded. On the other hand, it can also trap the poor in a cycle of dependency, limit their political agency, and reinforce patronage-based politics rather than fostering democratic accountability or broader social change

How democracies die? What is the main answer to this question by the authors?

when political leaders, often elected legitimately, undermine democratic institutions, norms, and the rule of law to consolidate power

'Fateful alliances'; examples

hitler, mussolini, and trump

Litmus test' for identifying authoritarian leaders

Rejection of (or weak commitment to) democratic rules of the game, Denial of the legitimacy of political opponents, Toleration or encouragement of violence, Readiness to curtail civil liberties

Political parties as gatekeepers of democracy

political parties are crucial gatekeepers of democracy because they decide who gets access to power

mass-level authoritarianism (definition; different measures; how it is operationalized in the article)

definition: a set of psychological or ideological predispositions that favor order, hierarchy, and conformity over individual autonomy, pluralism, and dissent. operationalized: latent variable models, cross-national and within-country analyses

mass-level institutional authoritarianism

the degree to which ordinary citizens are willing to support leaders or political actions that concentrate power and erode institutional constraints

elite-level authoritarianism

authoritarian tendencies of political leaders or candidates, particularly their willingness to undermine democratic institutions, norms, or civil liberties to consolidate power or maintain control

Who votes for authoritarian candidates? Main findings of the research

Authoritarian Voters Are More Likely to Vote for Authoritarian Candidates

Nayid Bukele

current president of El Salvador, took office on June 1, 2019

"Mano dura" policies

tough, often authoritarian, measures that governments or leaders implement to address crime, social unrest, or other societal problems. These policies generally involve strict law enforcement, aggressive crackdowns on criminal activity, and limited tolerance for dissent

Explanations of the success of this policy in El Salvador (and limitations in other countries,Honduras and Ecuador)

The success of mano dura policies in El Salvador can be attributed to Bukele’s strong political will, public support, and his ability to isolate and dismantle gangs through a combination of tough law enforcement and prison reform. However, the challenges faced by countries like Honduras and Ecuador—such as deeper social, economic, and institutional problems, and more entrenched criminal networks—make the simple replication of El Salvador’s strategy less feasible

Connections between Bukele's model and democratic backslidin

His actions have increasingly concentrated power in the hands of the executive, weakened the judiciary, undermined the media, and limited civil liberties—all hallmarks of democratic backsliding