Tipping Points

What is a tipping point in system’s theory?

• A point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant enough to cause a larger, more important change.

• If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society and may accelerate global warming.

What is the currently believed tipping point in terms of global warming temperature increase?

• About 1C / 1.8F higher than now

• We have about ~1F INCREASE FROM TODAY to reach this critical tipping point.

The articles list a “good” tipping point in favor of mitigating Carbon pollution global warming. What is that favorable tipping point?

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Examples of tipping points

• Thawing Permafrost: As permafrost thaws, it releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.

• Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers: The reduction of ice sheets and glaciers decreases Earth’s albedo (reflectivity), leading to faster global warming.

• Ocean Circulation Patterns: Changes in ocean currents can disrupt climate patterns.

• Ecosystems: Shifts in ecosystems due to temperature changes can have cascading effects.

Abrupt vs gradual tipping points

• Tipping points can be abrupt or gradual.

• For instance, the Greenland ice sheet has passed a tipping point, but its melt will occur over millennia.

Current Concerns

• Greenland Ice Sheets: These ice sheets are at risk of crossing or may have already crossed the tipping point…

• Amazon Rainforest: Deforestation and climate change threaten the Amazon’s stability.

• Warm-Water Coral Reefs: Rising ocean temperatures endanger coral reefs.

Cascade effects

Crossing one tipping point could trigger a cascade of others, potentially leading to severe and even catastrophic impacts.

Geological Record

Evidence from the geological past suggests that tipping points may have been crossed in prehistoric times.