State Exam Sustainable Development and Foresight

The discipline dealing with the study of possible futures is called what?

futurology or futures studies

According to Roy Amara (1981), what three statements are true about the future?

1. The future is not predetermined.

2. The future is not predictable.

3. The future can be influenced by our individual choices.

List the key elements of foresight (6).

Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, Acting.

__ involves considering a range of future possibilities.

Thinking in more diverse, open, balanced and non-biased ways.

__ involves translating into action and change.

Constructing pathways from the present to the future.

Involves gradual survey and comparison of experts forecasts based on anonymity is the ___.

It involves a gradual survey and comparison of the experts’ forecasts based on their anonymity, controlled information feedback, and the statistical identification of the consensus of the majority’s opinions.

List the standard Delphi method __.

Selection of experts, 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round.

List advantages of __.

Inspire creative thinking, the progress and outcome are easy to document, It is useful when solving complex, interdisciplinary problems.

What type of outcomes are produced by the Delphi method?

Outcomes are understandable not only to experts but also to amateurs.

List the disadvantages of __ .

It takes time, Facilitators filter the answers and interpret them, Single opinion can be ignored despite being valuable.

Explain the definition of __.

Scenarios describe/ narrate the possible future that demonstrate how the situation might develop from the present based on logical connection of consecutive key events.

__ are forces that affect the scenarios development.

Economic growth, legislation, competitiveness, technology advancement, etc.

The two directions of ___ are:

Explorative and Normative.

Explain the __ forecast.

Forecasts affect the future even by having been formulated.

Scanning __.

Explores the signs of change within the topic.

List the three key reasons why ___ is difficult.

Scanning is inherently subjective, Weak signals are weak, Early signals are early.

__ is subject to inertia.

It changes as slowly as possible and a revolution in value orientation is in progress silently, although it is the most revolutionary revolution.

_ are some key human values for sustainable development.

Respect of nature, Responsibility, Equity, Justice.

_ is an aggregated indicator based on personal consumption adapted with respect to factors related to social welfare and the quality of the environment.

It is a economic measure that considers other important factors besides GDP such as health, individual happiness, security, the quality of the environment to assesss a nation’s economic welfare and sustainability.

List three key dimensions of Human Development Index (HDI) __.

Long and healthy life, Knowledge, A decent standard of living.

List common demographic __.

Aging populations, Low birth rates, Urbanization, Migration patterns, Gender Imbalances, Income inequality, Healthcare needs, and Workforce changes.

The Malthusian theory argues __.

Argues that population growth tends to surpass the growth of resources, leading to poverty and famine.

Explain the definition of __.

The tragedy of the commons refers to a situation in which individuals with access to a shared resource (also called a common) act in their own interest and, in doing so, ultimately deplete the resource.

List three of Ostrom's principles for managing common resources through __ .

Define clear boundaries of the common resource, Rules governing the use of common resources should fit local needs and conditions, Sanctions for violators of the defined rules should be graduated.

__ are global comments.

Atmosphere, Land, forest, oceans, etc.

What virtue is induced by profit maximization logic to a capitalist society?

The profit-maximization logic induces the producers to invest in the latest technologies to increase productivity and efficiency.

Explain the Green Paradox __ .

Is when climate policies cause an increase in current carbon emissions as fossil fuel producers rush to extract before regulations start.

List three aspects of the sustainable __ .

The transition from a linear to a circular economy, Shifting from product provision to service provision, Investment in the restoration of natural capital

A central phrase in world politics was the key term of the report called __.

A key outcome was the report called “our common future” published in 1987.

What is the legacy of Karl Marx and Engels concerning the environment?

Contains hints of progressive thinking about human and the environment for their time.

Post communist transition to EU led to _.

Economic decline –reduction of pollution in industry and agriculture and new domestic government environmental policies and institutions.

The Gross National Happiness (GNH) is __ .

Is an attempt at defining quality of life in more holistic terms and with greater respect to the non-material aspects of life than GDP.

Describe climate __.

Global efforts to address climate change include international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.

Oceans are the largest heat sink and absorb __ % of excess heat caused by climate change.

Oceans are the largest heat sink on the planet. They absorb around 90% of excess heat caused by climate change.

List the interference of ocean and the _.

Heat absorption; Carbon sink; Ecosystems, Circulation patterns; Evaporation and Precipitation

Biodiversity __ .

Refers to the variety of life on Earth, including the different species, ecosystems, and genetic diversity within species.

__ are major drivers of habitat loss, leading to decreased habitats for many species.

Deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural expansion.

List the ways that human influence __ loss.

Land use changes, Pollution, overexploitation, invasive species and climate change

What are the two major divisions of foresight?

1. Mapping the changes in the world

2. Influencing those changes

• Futurists often refer to mapping as inbound change (information is going from outside to us) and influencing as outbound change (influence is going outside from us).