conclusions

Is politics a science or not?

• Debate over whether political science can make predictions like the natural sciences.

• Challenges in political polling: non-response, "shy tory" effect, demographic shifts, distrust, turnout variability.

• Despite challenges, models like Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys” offer structured prediction methods for elections:

• If 6 out of 13 keys are against the incumbent, the opposition is predicted to win.

What is the debate around media narratives vs political science perspectives?

• Media often dramatizes election outcomes.

• Political science uses broader, structural factors (economy, incumbency, crises) to explain likely outcomes, e.g., 2025 Australian Federal Election:

• Strong economy, no major crises, first-term government—Labor victory was likely, despite media narratives

What are Benn’s five essential questions for democratic scrutiny?

1. What power have you got?

2. Where did you get it from?

3. In whose interests do you use it?

4. To whom are you accountable?

5. How do we get rid of you?

• Democracy is vital because it gives citizens the right to ask these questions—hence, those in power often resist it.

• "Freedom and liberation are an unending task" (Umberto Eco). True freedom of speech means freedom from empty rhetoric

What are some reflections on political science as a discipline?

• Political science is contested in its core principles, methods, and even journals.

• Encompasses a wide range from abstract philosophy to quantitative analysis.

• UK tradition: "Political studies" focuses on qualitative methods, history, philosophy, and thick description.

• US tradition: "Political science" emphasizes quantitative methods, formal models, scientific standards, prediction1.