UCLA Political Science 20 Final

Defense

ward off an attack; minimize damage to self

Prestige

respect from others; establishing dominance and hegemony

Brute force

used to achieve one's desires through the elimination of the enemy; use of violence to get victory; about enemy strength; does not try to shape the motives of others

Coercion

diplomacy of violence; threat on costs of other political actors in order to change their behavior; may not involve the use of force at all - more success when not using force; two forms - deterrence and compellence; threat of more violence to come; about the enemy's interests

Economic threats/coercion

embargo, sanctions, trade agreement severances

Gulf War; Iran/Iraq War examples of?

Brute force

Deterrence

preventing others from doing an unwanted action through threats; a type of coercion; no need for force if successful; "I will hurt you if you take action;" others must believe it

Examples of deterrence

Eisenhower threatened use of nuclear weapons to defend Taiwan; US cares about NK having nuclear weapons and use threat of force to stop them

Compellence

stop unwanted action; convince others to take an action they don't want to take through the threat of force; "I will hurt you until you do what I want;" successful because of rapid change

Example of compellence

Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1950 and 1958 - US demanded to leave Formosa, Taiwan alone, Eisenhower threatened naval ships would attack

Which is more difficult: compellence or deterrence?

Compellence - once you've already done something, it is hard to go back on what was done; more costly than deterrence; fixed deadline

Bargaining

political actors choose outcomes where they are better off at the expense of another

Crisis bargaining

at least one actors threatens to use force if demands are not met; tradeoff between trying to get a better deal AND trying to avoid war

Warfare before Napoleonic Wars

wars fought on behalf of monarch, mercenary soldiers, no nationalized armies, little concept of nationality; purpose = to obtain territory and material gains; no point hurting civilians

Warfare with French Revolutionary Wars

Levee en Masse = a million and a half Frenchmen in French national army, it was the people's wars, greater connection between war and civilians; purpose = victory, hurt enemy's military first

Warfare today

can start with coercion, target civilians, no need to hurt enemy's military first, victory can also = serious cost

Shelling on nuclear weapons

nuclear weapons do no more damage than an ice pick to defenseless people; scale of destruction is not different through time; purpose of violence has change - now it's easier to hurt others & civilians; instruments are used more for punishment than to gain

Nuclear triad

land, air, and sea

Causes of proliferation (rapid growth)

national security, regime legitimization, status/prestige, coercive power

Security model

IR is anarchic; states are uncertain about survival so they seek deterrents; nuclear asymmetry = major vulnerability; proliferation/rapid growth and acquirement = chain reaction

Example of security model

Stalin asked America to provide them with an atomic bomb to protect themselves

Domestic model

leaders are guided by domestic constituents and powerful lobbies; idea that weapon growth can be a distraction from something more important - model more likely during hard times

Example of domestic model

Indian weapon growth - lost war to China, no consensus about security needs/nukes, took 10 years after China's nuke test and government infighting/lobbying by scientists to have nuclear program; did test because of = record low approval ratings, economic recession, riots; 90% Indians proud of the test = national confidence in leadership

Status model

Nukes = symbols of modernity & great power status

Example of status model

French weapon growth - wanted to restore great power status in 50's, loser in WWII, decolonization minimized France's role, "in 10 years time, France will still be an important country"

Benefits of nuclear proliferation

extended peace/stability - nukes are not obsolete by better ones, no need for guaranteed total destruction; second-strike ability (strike back if hit)

5 benefits of nuclear proliferation by Waltz

small gains is little incentive to fight; states act with care when costs are high; country with nukes does not need to fight to increase security; attacked states fight stronger (out of self-preservation); certainty knowing states are strong makes war less likely

Costs of nuclear proliferation

domestic instability - nukes end up in the wrong hands = terrorists, unchecked military, nuke smuggling; might encourage reckless nuclear states

Terrorism

NO AGREED DEFINITION - US definition: spread terror among civilians to achieve political objective; premeditated, political violence, done by sub-national groups/secret agents, usually to influence audience; tactics are not international norms of war, does not want territory, fight not in the open, done by "violent intellectuals"

Suicide terrorism

use of it violates the norm of tactics; targets civilians even though it is generally agreed they should not be involved; publicity or coercion purpose, not scared of dying for their cause, remove opposition, more destructive than other terrorisms, lots of attention

Actions that are not terrorism

wartime, self-defense, action is against war targets/military (not civilians), collateral damage

Terrorism trends (what is becoming more common?)

increase in # of attacks, not very deadly, most are bombings

Why terrorism?

gain supporters/publicity from large audience (hostages, hijacking), to coerce (bombings)

Is terrorism irrational?

organizational level = no; have objectives, strategies, adopting practices, strike democracies where leaders will give in to demands

How to stop terrorism

target leaders (but can get new leaders), crush group, move towards legitimate political process (talks with them often don't work), border control, homeland security

How terrorism stops by itself

achieved their objectives/autonomy (i.e. PKK in Turkey), group implosion (philosophy implodes, group differences, lose control), do other forms of activism (i.e. FARC)

International Political Economy (IPE)

study of the relationship between politics and economics; three theories = liberal, Marxist, mercantilist

IPE - liberal

absolute gains are possible, less regulation = best, maximize total welfare, no politics involved in economics; actors = individuals, firms, entrepreneurs

IPE - Marxist

gains = zero-sum between classes, all parties can't win, distribution = skewed (favors those on top), mode of production determines the political structure; actors = economic classes

IPE - mercantilist

realist approach, gains = zero-sum between countries, power politics & national security determines political structure, trading zones establish power over lesser states; actors = nation states

History of trade

1850s = Britain & others liberalize - result of change from mercantilist

Late 19th/early 20th century = 1st era of globalization; Interwar = trade restrictions; Postwar = liberalization under GATT; 1980s = globalization

Absolute advantage

a good a nation produces more efficiently than others

Comparative advantage

a good a country produces at a lower opportunity cost than other countries; all countries have a C.A. in something so theoretically all countries should benefit from free trade so should focus to produce these

Opportunity cost

what a country forgoes in order to produce a particular good

Political reasons to restrict trade

autarky (self-efficiency), national security, domestic welfare

Economic reasons to restrict trade

infant industry, anti-dumping, ensure survival of technological industries

How to restrict trade

tariffs (tax levied at border) & non-tariffs barriers (quota/limit # of foreign goods, regulations/red tape, standards, subsidies, nationalization, voluntary export restrictions)

Common market

no tariffs or other barriers internally, common external trade policy

Economic Union

common market, unified institutions, and economic policies

World Trade Organization (WTO) (succeeded GATT) goals

liberalization (remove all barriers), non-discrimination, reciprocity, safeguards; successful in reducing barriers to trade among nations

WTO and the poor

many came out of poverty through trade, some suffered because of liberalization (barrier removal); cannot assess overall welfare; WTO usually benefits economy

What does currency do?

provide liquidity, adjustment, signal confidence

How to compare my country's currency vs. another's

trade-off of stability vs. policy control

stability = do I want a currency with reliable and predictable exchange rates? --> then fixed or adj. peg

autonomy = do I decide my own interest rates/respond to domestic economic conditions? --> then floating

History of monetary system

Gold Standard = paper money fixed to gold, states hold gold in reserve to back up currency; country w/ deficit = lower reserves & forced to decrease money supply

governments tried floating rate systems --> lead to economic isolationism and government intervention

Bretton Woods acomplishments

1944

created adjustable peg at $35/oz.; dollar as reserve currency (not enough gold), established IMF and original World Bank

Bretton Woods problem

US started spending and dollar was devalued; NATO members = "exorbitant privilege"

End of Bretton Woods

1971

US no longer willing to keep the dollar fixed to gold; "dollar as hostage" of speculators; desire to stabilize the dollar

Currency situation today

floating exchange rates among major currencies that fluctuate widely = US, Japan, Euro, and Britain

regional monetary systems = stabilize exchange rates among groups of countries

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

1944

to manage international monetary relations, focus on international financial system i.e. debt/currency crisis

provide emergency funds, administer rules about change rates, surveillance and consultations on countries' economic policies

Currency crisis

inflation pressures --> imports are now more expensive; debts are denominated in foreign currency = firm bankruptcy

Changes in globalization in 1930s-80s

ISI (done by most developing countries) = import substitution industrialization - self-sufficiency, nationalization/subsidies, growth from within

EOI (done by East Asia) = export oriented industrialization - export goods with comparative advantage, self-sufficiency is not a goal; 70s = export boom

International globalization factors

products made cheaper by weak currencies, tax breaks to exporters, low-cost loans

Overseas investing

direct investing abroad = managing/owning foreign companies

indirect investing abroad = portfolios of stocks and bonds

90% to wealthy countries - more economic/political stability = less risk

Almost half of all world's investments travel across borders - controversial practice

FDI (foreign direct investing)

investment made by firm/individual in one country to another country that is relatively stable

Portfolio investment

can leave quickly; restrictions in some countries

when it goes - negative effects on domestic economy, casino capitalism (economic dues of other states as a form of gambling - led to ongoing economic crisis)

Risks of overseas investees (not the investors)

policies made to attract international investors - not focus on domestic development; often prevents natural internal development; developing countries create huge debts/poverty trap

Multinational corporation criticisms

should invest at home, outsourcing jobs to countries with lower wages, low standards (anti-union, abuse of workers), look for pollution friendly countries & ethically lax governments, influence locals

Economic interdependence

movement of goods and capital

Political interdependence

examples = UN, WTO, IMF

implementation/surveillance of global rules, international standards

International courts

Cultural interdependence

people and ideas move more freely

possible cultural homogeneity/decreasing diversity = more shared interests = peace

Globalization perspectives

states are becoming hollow/useless, will decrease in influence; globalization inevitable

globalization maximizes welfare

states are not going anywhere

globalization is reversible (Friedman)

globalization has happened before (20th century) with development of railways, steamships, telegraphs and states persist

Intervention

a state's intervention in the affairs of another state to change political/economical structure

different from conflict = limited goals = replacement of leader, aid to refugees, protection of civilians from own government

not to conquest/defeat military

one-sided action, no declaration of war

Strategic intervention

give ideologies (dangerous ideologies like communism are seen as a threat), install reliable, business-friendly leaders, install stronger leader to prevent overthrow

Humanitarian intervention

designed to relieve humanitarian crises come from large-scale human rights abuses

political overthrow, peacekeeping, aid and resources to civilians

Ideological intervention

i.e. the Cold War and wanting to stop communism

Forms/ways of intervention

economic sanctions, diplomacy, peacekeeping, humanitarian aid on the ground, use or threatened use of military force (i.e. no-fly zones, regime change)

Regime change w/ direct involvement examples

meaning to take military action to restore democracy

example Operation Nifty Package - threatened democracy in Panama by fraud elections, beating up opponents, threatened access to Panama canal

example Operation Enduring Freedom - enemy Saddam Hussein, possible weapons of mass destruction, murderous dictator, US to spread democracy

Regime change w/ indirect involvement examples

funding/arming insurgent groups, funding opposition parties, anti-regime propaganda, supporting overthrows

example Operation Ajax - targeted prime minister of Iran when he nationalized oil; US and UK put embargo on Iranian oil, many killed, covert propaganda campaign

Increase in regime change w/ direct involvement

preoccupation with seeing bad leaders as the next Hitler, unmatched US power = implement desires anywhere

Why does regime change rarely work?

privileges some groups over others, lack of knowledge about domestic situation, lack of will to remain indefinitely, better strategy to install pliable leader than allow democratic vote, lack of preconditions for democracy

Peacekeeping paradox?

conflict recurs 50% of the time w/ peacekeepers

conflict recurs 20% of the time w/o peacekeepers

explanation = peacekeepers only go to extremely troubled states where conflict is harder to peacekeep; does not mean peacekeepers are incompetent

in controlled study, peacekeeping reduces conflict by 85%

Intervention problems

increase in distortions in local economy, discourages local economic activity, produces new dependencies, reinforces existing political and economic quos

Intervention morality perspectives

morals should have no role in IR

national interests prevail over morals

morality is local - stronger moral obligations to our people than other people

morality should have no boundaries - a person is a person

Peacekeeping enforcement

used to create peace through hostility i.e. they're uninvited to the party, forced to shut the party down

Environmental issue

CFCs connection with global warming/ozone hole and bad effects on humans (i.e. cancer)

CFCs mostly used by developed countries

strategies to fix it - regulate? privatize? punishment?

Montreal Protocol

1987

single most successful agreement seen in IR

prohibited CFCs, 197 nations ratified, expected to recover by 2050

Greenhouse gases

C02 emissions lead to higher temperatures; big increase in 2000s (mainly due to industry in China)

Freeriding

social benefit but you don't pay the cost

Externality

unintended consequence of production or consumption

Negative externality example

pollution

caused by production of goods, affects entire population, companies not held accountable so no incentive to reduce impact

Positive externality examples

immunization, restored historic buildings, research into new technologies

Collective action problem example

coal in India - 55% of India's energy is from poor quality coal = twice as polluting than that in the West

fairness issue - if India continue high coal usage, it will hurt us all

Tragedy of the commons

effects shared by all, invisible hand doesn't always work

common pool resources = water, air, etc.

Recent environment agreements

2014 US/China agreement on carbon radiation = use non-fossil fuels for energy, reduce emissions

2015 Paris agreement = nationally determine your conditions to help temperature issue, no enforcement but "name and shame"

Rise of China

economic - main exporters, surpassing US, helps economy by keeping their currency low and exports high

demography - rapid population growth and urbanization

military - spending increasing, projected to surpass US military spending; pursuing same aircraft carrier as US and UK

cultural - influence growing since 2008 Olympics, technology boom

Why China owns debt?

reliable investment and return, guaranteed market for its products, reduces dollar value and increases local currency value

Why US allows China to own debt?

keeps consumer prices low, fund government programs that grow economy, keeps US interests low

If China sells US debt

increases US interest rate, people lose confidence in the dollar, slow US economy, consumer prices increase

can hurt Chinese economy too - US can devalue dollar and decrease debt

Liberal view of future of China

China would prevent domestic unrest due to economic decline

interdependence reduces probability of war because of mutual benefit - cost of war is high

liberals = more open

Liberal solution

strengthen current Western order - US should follow rules