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Fifty question-and-answer flashcards covering the 2025 FOMC calendar, key economic indicators, policy reactions, and related resources.
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What is the typical duration of the FOMC’s liquidity cycle?
About 4–5 years.
Name the two main phases of the liquidity cycle.
Expansionary and contractionary phases.
Which two policy tools most clearly define the expansionary phase?
Rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE).
Which two policy tools most clearly define the contractionary phase?
Rate hikes and quantitative tightening (QT).
List the four major economic indicators that guide FOMC policy.
Asset prices, inflation, employment, and economic growth.
Why is tracking the FOMC liquidity cycle useful for crypto investors?
Because crypto prices often follow shifts in global liquidity driven by the Fed’s stance.
How did Satoshi Nakamoto time Bitcoin’s halving mechanism?
He aligned it with the 4-5 year global liquidity cycle to absorb liquidity effectively.
When high inflation and strong labor data coincide, what policy action is most likely?
Rate hikes.
When inflation slows but remains above target and data are mixed, what stance may the Fed adopt?
A rate pause or monitoring stance.
Which report details non-farm payrolls, unemployment, and average hourly earnings?
The Employment Situation Report (Jobs Report).
How might the Fed respond to a strong Employment Situation Report?
With rate hikes or a pause if prior tightening is considered sufficient.
How might the Fed respond to a weak Employment Situation Report?
With rate cuts/QE or no action if weakness is deemed temporary.
What does the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure?
Monthly changes in consumer prices, reflecting inflation.
If CPI is above 2 % and climbing, what action might the Fed take?
Rate hikes or a continued tightening bias.
If CPI is below 2 % and the economy is slowing, what action might the Fed consider?
Rate cuts or QE to ward off deflation.
What is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge?
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
Rising PCE above target suggests what possible Fed move?
Rate hikes or a hawkish stance.
Declining PCE below target may prompt what response from the Fed?
Rate cuts/QE or at least a dovish stance.
What recurring event results in official policy statements roughly eight times a year?
FOMC meetings.
A hawkish FOMC statement signals concern about what?
Inflationary pressures.
A dovish FOMC statement signals concern about what?
Slowing economic growth.
How long after each FOMC meeting are the minutes released?
About three weeks.
Inflation-focused language in meeting minutes could foreshadow which policy actions?
Rate hikes or QT.
Growth-focused language in meeting minutes could foreshadow which policy actions?
Rate cuts or QE.
What does Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measure?
Overall U.S. economic growth on a quarterly basis.
Strong GDP growth above roughly 2 % with inflation concerns might lead to what?
Rate hikes.
Weak or negative GDP growth may push the Fed toward what action?
Rate cuts or QE.
What does monthly Retail Sales data primarily indicate?
Consumer spending on goods and services.
Rising retail sales alongside higher inflation can trigger what Fed response?
Rate hikes.
Falling retail sales coupled with weak demand can cause what Fed response?
Rate cuts/QE.
Give two typical conditions that lead to rate hikes.
Strong jobs data and high inflation (CPI or PCE).
Give two typical conditions that lead to rate cuts or QE.
Weak jobs data and low or falling inflation.
What stance might the Fed adopt when economic data are mixed and inflation is moderating?
A rate pause/monitoring stance.
On what date is the Employment Situation Report for December 2024 released?
January 3, 2025.
When will December 2024 CPI data be published?
January 10, 2025.
What are the dates of the first FOMC meeting in 2025?
January 28–29, 2025 (statement January 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET).
When is the CPI release for January 2025 scheduled?
February 14, 2025.
At what time is the statement from the March 18–19, 2025 FOMC meeting released?
March 19, 2025 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Which dates host the Bank of Japan policy meeting in late April/early May 2025?
April 30 – May 1, 2025.
When is the Employment Situation Report for May 2025 released?
June 6, 2025.
At what time will the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC statement be released?
June 18, 2025 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
On what date is CPI for June 2025 scheduled for release?
July 10, 2025.
When will the September 2025 FOMC meeting occur?
September 16–17, 2025 (statement September 17 at 2:00 p.m. ET).
When is the CPI release for October 2025?
November 13, 2025.
When is the final FOMC meeting of 2025 scheduled?
December 9–10, 2025 (statement December 10 at 2:00 p.m. ET).
On what date is CPI for November 2025 scheduled to be published?
December 11, 2025.
Which article is suggested for reviewing U.S. rate-cut history?
"Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2023" – Forbes Advisor.
Which article explains the Fed’s quantitative tightening program?
"What Is the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening Program? And Why Its End Matters" – Morningstar.
Which article discusses the global liquidity cycle in depth?
"The Global Liquidity Cycle" by Michael Howell.
What section of the notes summarizes conditions for rate hikes, cuts, or pauses?
The "Summary Key Guide."