Signs of the US recession

Introduction

Economy could get into a recession in second or third quarter of 2025 , if it does happen the magnitude and duration would be impossible to predict like tariffs and geopolitics

How down is the SNP

4-6 percent

What is the first sign of a economic slowdown

Consumer sentiment , fell from 72 to 64 in recent surveys, indicating reduced confidence in the economy.

Second sign

Deterioratig manufacturing outlook , number of new orders have slowed due to tariffs

Payroll figures

Employment rose but fell short of expectations

Working hours

Working hours have gone down to 34 from 35

Quits rate

The quits rate measures the percentage of employees who voluntarily leave their jobs, indicating labor market confidence. it has increased

Q1: What does a rally in U.S. 10-year Treasuries typically signal about investor sentiment?

→ A flight to safety, indicating rising concerns about a possible recession.

Q2: Why are rising gold prices and inflows into gold-backed ETFs considered a recessionary signal?

→ Because they show that both central banks and individual investors are shifting toward risk-off assets amid uncertainty.

Q3: What do widening credit spreads and rising put option prices suggest about market expectations?

→ Investors are anticipating higher risk of defaults and seeking more protection against a market downturn.

Q4: Why are airlines like Delta seen as economic bellwethers?

→ Because travel spending reflects consumer and business confidence, so cuts in revenue forecasts may signal slowing economic activity.

Q5: What does the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently project, and what would qualify as a recession?

→ It projects -2.4% GDP growth in Q1; a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.