Poli 10 final

last one before spring

Public Opinion

Citizen’s attitudes about political issues, personalities, institutions, and events.

Polling

Systematic methodology to collect and quantify opinions from a representative group of people to understand public sentiment.

Political Socialization

The process by which individuals develop their political beliefs, often influenced by family, friends, and the political environment.

Partisanship

The strong allegiance to one's own political party, often leading to opposing views on major issues.

Median Voter Theorem

The theory that candidates will position themselves to appeal to the median voter in order to win elections.

Electoral College

A body of electors established by the United States Constitution, which formally elects the President and Vice President.

Duverger’s Law

The principle that single-member plurality electoral systems tend to favor a two-party system.

Margin of Error

The range within which the true population value is likely to fall, indicating the precision of polling results.

Democratic Backsliding

The gradual deterioration of democratic institutions, which can entrench the power of leaders beyond democratic means.

Negative Partisanship

The phenomenon where voters are more motivated by opposition to the other party than by support for their own.

why do politicians care about public opinion

to win re-election

name 3 ways people can express their opinions besides through polls

social media posts, protests, wiring to politicians, attending town halls, campaigns, newspaper

what are the personal factors that shape public opinion

self interest, values, and information

what are the political factors that influence public opinion

partisanship and ideology

how do liberals and conservatives differ in the their view of governments role

liberals want a larger government role (social services, regulation); conservatives want a smaller role (free marker, personal responsibility)

what is thermostatic public opinion

when public opinion shifts in the opposite direction of government policy to restore balance

what are the key elements of a poll

the sample, the questionnaire, and the mode of data collection

what was the main flaw of the 1936 literary digest poll

it used a biased sample (magazines and postcards sent to car owners), leading to a 38-point error saying FDR would lose but he actually won

why is weighing used in polls

to adjust for over or underrepresented groups, thought it can introduce errors if nonrespondents differ from respondents

what does mode refer to in polling

the method used to conduct the poll (face-to-face, telephone, online, etc)

what is a political party

a coalition of politicians, interest groups, activists, and voters seeking to control government through elections

what are the three roles of political parties in government

coordinating policy, selecting leaders and setting the agenda, and introducing/passing legislation

what are the three roles of political parties as institutions

recruiting candidates, mobilizing voters, and providing cues to help voters make decisions

why are U.S. political parties considered decentralized

because state and local parties have significant autonomy from the national party

what is party sorting

the process by which voters increasingly align with one party, making parties more ideologically consistent

what is the gender gap in voting

a trend where women tend to vote more democratic and men more republican

what is the diploma divide

the split in political affiliation by education level, with higher-educated voters leaning democratic

what is direct democracy

a system in which citizens vote directly on policy issues

what is representative democracy

a system in which citizens elect representatives to make decisions on their behalf

explain the “two wolves and a lamb” theory

its an analogy warning that unchecked majority rule can oppress minority interests by illustrating a scenario where the majority (wolves) decides to eat the minority (lamb), highlighting the need for safeguards against tyranny of the majority.

what is the paradox of voting

the idea that a single vote rarely decides an election, which may discourage voter turnout as individuals may feel their participation is inconsequential.

how do voters typically decide in elections

through partisan loyalty and by evaluating policy stances (prospective vs retrospective voting)

what is federalism

the division of power between the federal government and the states

what does the tenth amendment state

powers not delegated to the federal government are reserved for the states or the people

what is dual federalism

a system where federal and state governments have clearly separate spheres of power and operate independently within those spheres.

what is shared (concurrent) federalism

a system where both federal and state government share power over certain areas such as taxation, law enforcement, and education.

how does nationalization affect elections

voters apply the same criteria to both local and national elections, often strictly along party lines

what is nationalization in politics

the increasing focus on national issues and candidates over local ones

what is a state government trifecta

when one party controls the governor, state assembly, and state senate

given an example of an initiative pursued by a state trifecta

democrats might push for free college or a higher minimum wage; republicans might push for anti-union laws or expanded gun rights

how do lawmakers use presidential cues in their speeches

they reference the president to nationalize debates and polarize public opinion

how can mentioning the president in debates affects voters

it can sway voters to support or oppose legislation based on party loyalty and the presidents approval

what is democratic backsliding

the slow erosion of democratic institution and norms that allows leaders to entrench power

name two factors that contribute to democratic backsliding

partisan competition and polarization (other factors include negative partisanship and partisan gerrymandering)

what are two solutions to combat democratic backsliding

mutual toleration and forbearance—adhering to democratic norms and rules

what is political polarization

when differences within parties are small and differences between parties are larger

how has polarization among U.S. senators changed since the 1990s

It has increased, with most senators clustering toward their party’s ideological extremes

name two factors that have contributed to increase polarization

voter sorting and media nationalization

who is newt Gingrich and why is he significant

he was speaker of the house (1995-1999) and a key figure in the republican revolution

how do forecasts relate to polling

forecasts are predictions based on polls; however, when polls are close, they may not accurately predict outcomes