ETV that opinion polls have impacted the outcome of general elections and party policy

INTRO

Opinion polls are carried out by research organisations using a sample of typical voters they are mainly used to establish voting intention but they can also be used to assess leaders popularity and the varying degrees of trust people have in political parties. In this sense opinion polls allow us to consider valence issues and the salence of specific issues.

 

P1: 1992- in 1992 most polls suggested that Labour would win the general election

• which may have encouraged wavering undeciding voters to back the then conservative government out of fear of a labour administration led by Neil Kinnock

HOWEVER polls are nor very influential on general elections or party policy in 1992

• the election can be seen to be determined far more by a variety of factors opinion polls simply picked up on these. Valence issues were significant, labour were not really trusted on the economy even some 13 years after the winter od discontent in 1979, that lack of trust was still lurking around. The media also played a significant role in the barrage against Neil Kinnock. Polls can also be innacurrate. There may also be conflicting polling that muddies the water

• the sun headline entitled "will the last person in Britain turn the lights out if labour win"

   

  Kinnock shouting we are all right lots of times on TV

   

  2017 most polls predicted a comfortable conservative majority and didn't pick up on the so called youthquake and increase in younger voter turnout prepared to turn up at voting booths and vote for labour candidates

   

  YouGovs constituency by constituency analysis on 2017 did pick up on the softening of tory support but conventional polls did not

P2: 2015 the conventional wisdom in this election is that opinion polls did actually matter

• the closeness of the polls led to conservative efforts to warn about the possibility of a labour-SNP coalition which may have helped shift the election if favour of a small Tory majority 

HOWEVER valence issues played their part in 2015. labour had failed to gain trust after the credit crunch. Cameron also was a more popular leader than Ed Milliband which shows how the perceptions of party leaders matter. The conservative campaign was more effective, they utilised a negative campaign warning people against the so-called dangers of a labour-SNP coalition of chaos this was effective

2019 the salient issue of Brexit drove voting intention, long term social factor such as regional voting mattered. Tory vote fell  in strong remain areas and rose in strong leave areas. Trust in party leaders was essential in 2019 43% in an opinion poll showed that people voted on the basis of leadership and notably a dislike of Corbyn and that that affected how they voted not opinion polls

 

In this sense all opinion polls are showing people why people are voting how they are not necessarily influencing people's votes

P3: Polls showed that immigration became an important issue for voters after 2010.

• Hence successive conservative pledges to limit net migration to the tens of thousands and recent promises to deal with the small boats issues and policies to send Asylum seekers to Rwanda. Thus we could suggest that the conservatives are picking up on voters concerns through opinion polls and responding to them when it comes to the issue of immigration

HOWEVER immigration has actually become less of a priority post-Brexit, especially since shortages in the labour market have shown our spotlight on the effects of ending free movement of labour. Opinion polls have instead showed that people are more concerned about the NHS and the cost of living than immigration and yet the conservatives still stick with quite harsh policies on immigration control.

 

Perhaps this study shows that other factors are affectting their thinking when it comes to conservtive party policy. Need to appeal to tory base and more aging socially conservative electorate? Or appeal to the new right faction of the party

Arguably Labour's manifesto in 2017 shifted and shaped opinion on public spending and paticularly on tuition fees that wasn't really part of the discussion and wasn't really picked up in opinion polls until labour put it is their manifesto in 2017 which drove the closeness of that election

 

Short term factors such as decent campaigns well received or poorly received manifestos get picked up by opinion polls they are reflection rather than a determinant of a change of party policies