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Two Thinking Systems (Kahneman)
System 1: fast, automatic, emotional; System 2: slow, deliberate, logical.
Origin of Cognitive Biases
Biases mostly come from System 1 (fast thinking).
Cognitive Biases and Optical Illusions
Both distort perception automatically, even if we know the truth.
Confirmation Bias
Tendency to seek information that supports our beliefs and ignore evidence against them.
Availability Bias
Overestimating events that are easy to recall because they are recent, vivid, or emotional.
Anchoring
Being influenced by an initial number or reference point when making estimates.
Framing Effect
Different presentation of identical information changes decision-making.
Loss Aversion
Losses feel stronger than equivalent gains.
Ego Bias / Rationalization
We justify our actions to protect self-image and avoid blame.
Sample Size in Statistics
Larger samples give more reliable estimates of the population.
95% Confidence Interval
There is a 95% probability that the true population value lies within the estimated range.
Double-Blind Tests
Both researcher and participants don't know group assignments, reducing bias.
Dispersion (Statistics)
Spread of data measured by range and standard deviation.
Scientific Hypothesis
A tentative explanation that can be tested through observation and experiment.
Adequacy Criteria for Hypotheses
Goodness of fit (explains data) and accuracy (makes correct predictions).
Objective Truth
Truth is independent of opinions or beliefs.
Belief ≠ Truth
Believing something doesn't make it true.
Justified True Belief
Knowledge requires belief, truth, and justification.
Moral Objectivism
Moral truths are valid for everyone, universally.
Moral Relativism
Moral truths depend on individuals or cultures.
James Rachels' Critique of Cultural Relativism
Cultural relativism leads to absurd consequences: justifying Nazism, blocking moral debate, and silencing reformers.