Agent-Based Models to Predict Crime at Places

Agent-based modelling

A methodology used in computer simulation to model crime.

Individual-level behaviour

A computer simulation technique that focuses on individual-level behaviour and is perfectly suited for crime modelling.

Virtual "agents"

Placing virtual "agents" in an environment that lets them to traverse space and time and behave as they would in the real world.

Crime prediction

ABM can be used both to investigate Agent-Based Models to Predict Crime at Locations and to produce accurate predictions in a virtual environment that simulates the actual world.

Environmental criminology

The subject of environmental criminology and the benefits it provides to the field through agent-based modeling.

Social systems

Complex systems comprised of numerous components, intricate interactions between those components, and emergent traits.

Acquisitive crimes

Crimes such as burglary and street robbery that result from the interaction of environmental, social, and individual forces.

Importance of understanding criminal justice system

Understanding the processes and forces that define the criminal justice system is essential for crime prevention and policy formulation.

Autonomy

An agent should be able to regulate its own state, engage with other agents and its environment, and make choices without being directly governed by a central authority.

Heterogeneity

Agents don’t need to be identical. It is possible to develop offender agents that reflect the variety of offending behaviors demonstrated, allowing for the incorporation of qualitatively collected facts and theories.

Reactivity

Agents should be able to respond to environmental changes in a proactive manner, demonstrating goal-directed behavior. This is especially relevant for a crime model, as the environment will alter as a result of the crime, influencing the agents' future conduct.

Bounded rationality

It is essential, especially in social science modeling, that agents do not always act exactly logically. Agents can be designed with "bounded" rationality by restricting their world knowledge, so that their decisions are not always optimal.

Agent-based modeling (ABM)

A more naturalistic method of modeling a system since they describe the system's basic components and then attempt to "grow" the observed crime patterns from the "bottom up." ABM is particularly useful in environmental criminology since offenders can be treated similarly to non-offenders and the effects of noncriminal activities on crime can be investigated.

PECS model

A cognitive architecture used to regulate agents by comparing the magnitudes of various motivations to generate different types of criminal agents.

Routine Activity Theory

A theory applied to street robbery using agent-based modeling, where citizens (offenders, victims, and guardians) and police make up the model's two agent kinds.

Household Burglary Model

A model that assigns attractiveness scores based on socioeconomic position, guardianship, race, and economic levels, and includes measures of social cohesiveness and guardianship.

ABM of the Drug Market

An agent-based model that integrates linkages between local actors, authorities, social services, and drug users and sellers to study drug markets, where small-scale efforts were found to be more effective than national ones.

Abstract Theory

A theory that is not based on specific, real-world situations or contexts.

Virtual Laboratory

A simulated environment that can be used to investigate the dynamics of a system or phenomenon.

Identifiability Issue

The difficulty in determining whether a model accurately reflects reality due to the large number of variables involved.

Step-by-Step Construction

The process of gradually increasing the complexity of a model to ensure that it accurately reflects reality.