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Deterrence
A strategy to prevent an adversary from taking an action by threatening credible retaliation.
Credibility
The believability of a threat or promise; essential for deterrence to work.
Normal form game
A representation of a strategic game using a matrix showing payoffs for each strategy combination.
Zero-sum game
A situation in which one player's gain is exactly equal to another's loss.
Prisoner's Dilemma
A game showing why two rational actors might not cooperate even when it's in their best interest.
Extensive form games
Games represented as trees showing sequential moves, decision nodes, and outcomes.
Backward induction
Solving a game from the end (final decision node) backward to determine optimal strategy.
Commitment device
A way to lock in a course of action to influence an opponent's expectations.
Dominant strategy
A strategy that always provides a better outcome regardless of the opponent's actions.
Nash equilibrium
A set of strategies where no player benefits from changing their strategy unilaterally.
Security dilemma
When a state's defensive actions are perceived as threats, leading to arms races or conflict.
Human security
A focus on individual safety from violence, poverty, and disease, beyond traditional state security.
Hegemon
A dominant state with overwhelming influence in the international system.
Polarity
The arrangement of power in the international system, including unipolarity, bipolarity, and multipolarity.
9-dash line
China's territorial claim in the South China Sea.
Monroe Doctrine
A U.S. policy opposing European intervention in the Western Hemisphere.
Manifest Destiny
The belief that the U.S. was destined to expand across North America.
Lone wolf terrorism
Attacks carried out by individuals without direct group orders.
Affiliate terrorism
Local groups linked to global organizations like Al Qaeda or ISIS.
Other Minds' Problem
The challenge of understanding others' intentions in strategic settings.
Cyber security
Protection of digital systems from cyberattacks, includes threats like Stuxnet.
Ethnic war
Conflict driven by ethnic divisions, identity, and grievances.
Transnational organized crime
Crime crossing borders, often linked to weak states or corruption.
Counterinsurgency
Military and political efforts to combat insurgent groups.
Impossible trilemma of counterinsurgency
The challenge of protecting civilians, defeating insurgents, and building local legitimacy—can't do all three.
Rwandan genocide
Mass killing of Tutsis by Hutus; example of ethnic outbidding and scapegoating.
Revolution in warfare
Fundamental changes in how wars are fought due to technology or strategy.
Moral hazard in IR
When protection or support encourages risky behavior (e.g., interventions encouraging rebellion).
Force protection
Military emphasis on minimizing casualties, sometimes at odds with mission goals.
Stuxnet
A cyberattack (by US and Israel) that targeted Iran's nuclear program.
Ethnic outbidding
Politicians using extreme ethnic rhetoric to gain support.
Slobodan Milosevic
Serbian leader instrumental in the Yugoslav Wars and ethnic cleansing.