Terrorism, Political Violence, and Ethnic Conflict: Key Concepts and Case Studies

Terrorism, Insurgency, Guerilla Warfare

Insurgent groups function as states, hold territory, high levels of organization

- Isis- opening courts, providing services to the people

- Function as an army, organizational structure

Can combat the state, mixed targets

- ISIS, Shining Path (Peru)

Guerilla Groups: can hold some territory operate as a state in some capacities

- Hold only a little bit of territory

- Mixed targeting, more civilian targeting than an insurgent group

Terrorist groups are non-state actors that do not hold territory

- Operate while trying not to be caught

- Low levels of organization

Huff and Kertzer

Public opinions on terrorism

Data on number of deaths as well as damage

Who carries it out?

Who is targeted? Civilians vs Army

Public does not distinguish between civilian and army targeting

Race of perpetrator impacts view of the event

Kalvyas

Defining political violence

4 connecting logics: hierarchical, escalation, instrumental, substitution

Hierarchical: one instance of political violence is transformative and therefore paves the way for others to happen after; most commonly interstate war

Instrumental: using political violence as a tool to implement another instance of political violence

Escalation: small examples leading to bigger examples

Substitution: substituting one example of political violence to avoid another; ex: proxy war

4 processes involved in political violence: war, regime type, economic development, ethnic divisions

Hierarchical Logic

Top down, large event paves the way for more political violence

ex: interstate war causing civil war

instrumental Logic

Political Violence used to justify a separate act

ex: civil war as the context for ethnic cleansing

Substitution Logic

Replacing one form of political violence with another

ex: proxy wars

Escalation Logic

Small acts of political violence lead to larger ones

ex: protests leading to civil war

Hoffman

The idea of terrorism arose during the French Revolution

- "Propaganda by Deed"

- Most terrorists don't view themselves as terrorists, usually driven by desperation

- Rise of Terrorists post WWII to fight colonial powers

Rapaport

Thugs

- Terror is propaganda by deed

- Primary audience is the deity

- Want their victims to experience terror for the Hindu godess Kali

- Existed as early as the 7th century

- Kali gives and takes life and the Thugs kill via strangling to assist but not take blood

Assassins

- Posed a major threat to persian/syrian governments

- Lower kill count than thugs

- Reached out to the public with their actions

- Islamic organization

- Could use any weapon besides swords

- Created their own semi-state that reached across Islamic countries

Zealots-Sicarii

- Similar to Assassins

- Only lasted about 25 years

- Jew terrorists

- Belief that redemption can be sped up through religious acts of violence

- Use of fear tactics at high levels

- Pushing romans out of jerusalem

Waves of Terrorism

Anti colonial: 1945-1960s

- FLN in Algeria, Irgun in Palestine

Leftist Wave: 1970s- 1980s

- Red Brigades in Italy, FARC in Colombia

Extremist Wave: 1980s-present

- Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Boko Haram

Crenshaw

Terrorists are not psychopaths, mentally ill

Importance of 3 levels of analysis

- Contextual motivators

- Group level motivators

- Individual level motivators

- Must be more useful as a means of messaging than any other option

- Organizations have internal values and beliefs

- "Rational" actors

- Revolution or pushback against a faulty government

- Not all groups have the same foresight

- Effective method of weakening government control over a territory

- Easy solution when government has notably more power than challengers

Fortna

Rebel Funding

Armed groups funding themselves by real economic means (resource extraction) vs some groups use civilian support or foreign funding

Civilian supported less likely to carry out attacks on civilians

Mitts

- People are more likely to carry out terrorist attacks if they feel isolated from society

- Anti-minority hostility

- Example of ani-muslim sentiment in Europe

- Large degrees of right-wing voting correlation to acts of terrorism

Krueger and Maleckova

Terrorism is likely not caused by poverty

- Profile of Palestinians, Hamas and Hezbollah Fighters

- More likely to have higher than average economic status and education

- Because they have higher levels of social understanding

- Screening Mechanism by groups for competence

Blair

Survey Experiment in Pakistan about public opinions of militant groups

- Poor citizens are more anti violence than middle class

- Negative externalities towards poor communities

Kidd and Walter

Attrition: Small attacks that harm over time

Intimidation: using violence to intimidate local populations into obedience

Provocation: provoke the state into overreacting and turning the civilian population over to the militant group (Boko Haram)

Spoiling: Sabotaging peace negotiations between moderates and the governments

Outbidding: using more extreme violence than other groups to show strength

Pape

- Suicide terrorism does a good job of getting foreign governments to make concessions (usually land)

- Very high proportion of total suicide deaths

- Exclusively aimed at democracies where the government is more sensitive to public opinion

- Martyrdom effect

Ex: Tamil Tigers (Secular/Marxist)

Civil War in Yugoslavia

Milosevic

Rise of Serbian Nationalism

Serbian Dominance over national politics

Nationalist tendencies

lack of acceptance of Croat input

rising conflict that resulted in civil war

Primordialism

Ethnic identity is so set and ingrained that it naturally becomes conflicting

Constructivism

ethnic identity is not set but created and conflict arises out of formed differences

Fearon and Laitin

Role of ethnic diversity

Ethnic diversity does not necessarily create violence

Factors:

State capacity/legitimacy, weak governments

Terrain characteristics, places to hide from the government (Afghanistan)

Collective action Problem: armed groups are trying to provide a "public good", participants in the conflict are tempted to free ride

Brainwashing and private benefits for dedicated members

Cederman

In cases of ethnic diversity AND horizontal inequalities, more likely to see civil wars

Economic standing does not automatically mean there will be conflict

Ex: Hindus vs Muslims

Horizontal inequalities: different access to opportunities between groups

Posen

Role of Security Dilemmas

Security Dilemma: groups find themselves uncertain of other groups capabilities and cannot distinguish between offensive and defensive actions. They are therefore likely to keep bolstering defenses

- Lack of central control

- Anarchy environment

- Groups may be pressured to be offensive to avoid being taken over by surrounding enemies

Ex of Yugoslavia: Different territories were examples of the security dilemma (Serbs and Croats)

- Militaries all bolstered because before there was a unified Yugoslavia the different territories fought regularly

Varshney

Civic Society

"Good types" of civic society can prevent ethnic conflict

Interethnic interactions that provide formal or informal ways of meeting, there is less hatred between ethnic groups

Intraethnic civic society is more likely to cause violence especially in Urban areas

Wilkinson

Electoral Incentives

State politicians have incentives in government to either protect or attack minorites

In areas where Muslims have less voting share, politicians can attack Muslims without fear of hurting their chances of reelection

Attacking Muslims can create a greater sense of ethnic unity for Hindus in some cases

Rwandan Genocide

Hutu vs Tutsi

Hutus targeting Tutsis

in response to Tutsis RPF attacking rwanda from Uganda and Assassination of Hutu President in 1994

violence directed by the state

Strauss

Macro Level: State Power, Existing conflicts,

Government had very widespread, heavy control as a result of Rwanda being small and densely populated

When perpetrators of genocide were questioned, they said that they didn't necessarily hate their neighbors, but were spurred on by the government