4. Evaluate the extent to which General Elections in the UK are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition (30)

As this essay focuses on the elections that are ‘lost by the government’, What elections will be the key examples here?

• The 1979, 1997 and 2010 elections, in which there was a change of government.

Paragraph 1: Leadership (FOR)

• Arguments that General Elections in the UK are lost by the government.

• It can be argued that general elections in the UK are lost by the government because the unpopularity of Prime Ministers is often a key reason why voters vote against a governing party and opposition leader isn’t required to be hugely popular.

• This can be seen in the 2010 election when David Cameron didn’t have particularly high approval ratings, but was still able to win the election due to unpopularity of Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

  • An IPSOS MORI Poll shortly before the election showed 33% regarded Cameron as the most capable PM, compared to 29% for Brown.

    • However, he was still able to defeat the government and win the most votes of any party due to Brown’s reputation of being cowardly, boring and uninspiring. Against this, Cameron didn’t need to be hugely popular for the Conservative Party to win.

• The same can be seen in the 1979 election, when Prime Minister James Callaghan was derided for his failure to deal with militant trade unions, leading to the Winter of Discontent. Labour were highly unpopular and started the campaign way behind in the polls.

  • As a consequence, it was largely irrelevant that Conservative Party leader Margaret Thatcher wasn’t well known and didn’t have major popularity, as she and the Conservatives were able to benefit from the unpopularity of Callaghan and the Labour government.

Para 1: Leadership: AGAINST

• Arguments that General Elections In the UK are won by the opposition.

• On the other hand, if the governing political party recognises that their leader has become unpopular and is no longer an electoral asset, they will often remove them in favour of a new leader who can convince the electorate they are offering something new.

  • This can be seen most clearly in the Conservative Party in the past decade, which has removed three leaders who had become unpopular with the public due to failing when in power: Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

  • Before the 2019 election, the Conservative Party removed May and brought in Johnson, who was able to distance himself from the rest of the party and successfully win the election for the Conservatives, in part due to his charisma and personal popularity.

• Popular opposition leaders can also be highly important in why opposition parties are able to win elections against the governing party.

  • This can be seen in particular in the 1997 election. Blair was very popular across the country and was seen as a strong, competent and charismatic leader with a clear vision and control over his party.

    • This contrasted with Prime Minister John Major, who was seen as a weak, boring leader presiding over a party divided over Europe and tainted by ‘sleaze’ and the cash for questions scandal.

What is the judgement on paragraph 1 (Leadership)

• Overall, leaders are key to winning elections for parties and a popular opposition leader is certainly an electoral asset.

• In relation to leadership, though, elections are more often lost by the government rather than won by the opposition. If a Prime Minister and their party is unpopular with the public, opposition leaders don’t need to be hugely popular themselves to win, as voters often seek to punish the governing party and vote for something new anyway

Paragraph 2: Competence (FOR)

• It can be argued that general elections in the UK are lost by the government as the perceived incompetence of the government when in office is often a key reason why voters vote for the opposition

• The failure of the government in power was a key reason for the government losing in the last three elections when there was a change of government: 1979, 1997 and 2010

  • In the 1979 election, Labour was voted out in large part due to the perception they were unable to manage the economy and trade unions in the context of the 1979 ‘Winter of Discontent’, in which the government's attempts to impose a 5% limit on pay increases led to widespread strikes and a sense of national paralysis.

    • This provided the Conservatives with an irresistible theme: that the country needed a new direction and a government that could grapple with economic and social breakdown.

      • The Conservative Party used the clever slogan ‘Labour isn’t working’

  • Perceived economic incompetence was also significant in the 1997 election. By 1997, the economy was recovering from the recession of the early part of the decade, but voters didn't give the Conservatives credit for this, rather they remembered the catastrophe of 'Black Wednesday' in September 1992.

    • Monthly opinion polls showed Labour consistently ahead of the Conservatives from the autumn of 1992 onwards. The Conservatives had lost their reputation as competent managers of the economy and failed to retrieve it.

  • In the 2010 election, the 2008 financial crash had wrecked New Labour’s reputation of being economically competent that had played a key role in winning them the previous three elections.

    • Further, the government’s decision to invade Iraq and the subsequent revelation that the claims that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction were untrue, undermined Labour’s support.

Paragraph 2: Competence (AGAINST)

• Arguments that general elections in the UK are won by the opposition.

• On the other hand, it can be argued that the opposition are only able to benefit from the government’s incompetence and win the election if they are perceived to be competent themselves.

  • This can be seen in the 1997 election, when Labour were successful in presenting themselves as an economically competent party, pledging not to increase income tax and to prioritise national finances.

  • It can also be seen in the 1979 election, when a great deal of the Conservative Party’s messaging focused on bringing down inflation. The Labour Party’s did too, however theirs lacked credibility due to their failure when in office.

What is the judgment on paragraph 2 about competence?

Overall, though is it important for the opposition to appear competent themselves, incompetence when in government is often a key reason why governments lose elections.

The importance of competence therefore supports the idea that general elections are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition.

Paragraph 3: Rational Choice and Issue Based Voting (AGAINST

• Arguments that general elections in the UK are won by the opposition

• One key argument for why general elections in the UK are won by the opposition rather than lost by the government is that the opposition is able to provide a manifesto and policy platform to the electorate that offers a real change and benefits them economically.

  • This can be seen in the 1997 election, when Blair successfully rebranded the Labour Party. As Labour leader, Blair drove forward the policy of modernisation and abandoned old-fashioned party policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and the strengthening of Trade Union powers, which might put off middle-class voters.

    • Blair also gave off reassuringly tough signals of law and order (using the slogan ‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’), an issue that mattered to voters after rising crime rates in the early 1990s, and emphasised his links to the business community.

    • As a sign of the party's desire to show how responsible it was, its 1997 platform stressed specific policy details where it promised to make a difference, such as reducing primary school class sizes and cutting hospital waiting lists.

  • As a consequence, the Labour Party was able to offer a concrete policy platform and real change to the electorate, which enabled Labour to win the election with a landslide.

Paragraph 3: Rational Choice and Issue Based Voting (FOR)

• Arguments that General Elections are Lost by the government

• On the other hand, it can be argued that general elections are lost by the government, as opposition parties often have similar policies to the governing party, but are able to win as they provide a change in terms of leadership and aren’t tainted by their record in government as the governing party is.

  • This can be seen in the 1979 election, when both parties prioritised bringing down inflation and the Conservative Party’s manifesto contained very little indication Thatcher intended to move her party so far to the right.

    • There was a mention of returning recently nationalised industries to private hands and removing Trade Union powers, but no suggestion of the radical crusade to scale down the state sector that followed.

  • In 2010 too, the policies of the Labour and Conservative parties were relatively similar, with both parties supporting austerity and bringing down the deficit, however the Conservative Party had more success as their reputation for economic competence hadn’t been damaged by the financial crash as Labour’s had.

What is the judgement on paragraph 3: Rational Choice and Issue based voting

• Overall, in relation to rational choice and issue based voting, elections are sometimes lost by the government and sometimes won by the opposition.

  • In some elections, especially 1997, an opposition’s manifesto offering change can be important in winning them the election, whilst in other such as 1979 and 2010, opposition parties don’t need to offer major changes in policy but simply a change in leadership.

What is the overall argument on the essay?

In conclusion, when the government loses an election it is invariably a combination of the government’s failures and the opposition offering an alternative to the electorate.

The failure of the government both in terms of the unpopularity of their leader and wrecking their reputation for competence is arguably more important than the opposition’s offering, however. The opposition party can sometimes win an election simply by not being the governing party.

General elections in the UK are therefore lost by the government more than they are won by the opposition.

Other possible essay questions to practice adapting this plan to answer?

Evaluate that the performance of the government when in power is the most important factor determining general election results in the UK