LS 443

What are the trends in immigration since 1850?

1st wave (1860s–1930s): Ellis Island, Mostly European immigrants.

In the 1930s, the Quota system started that placed restrictions on immigration

The 1960 demographic —> Ellis Island immigrants grew old

2nd wave (1980s–present): Mostly from Latin America & Asia

2015 demographic —> working middle aged population that immigrate for economic reasons

Who is the immigrant population in terms of citizenship?

2018:

U.S born: 282, 406, 817

Foreign Born: 44, 760,622

Citizen: 22, 679, 525

Non Citizen: 22, 081, 097

Immigrant population: 50.7% citizens, 49.3% non-citizens (2018).

Immigrant Destinations: California, New York, Texas, Nevada, Florida

Who is the immigrant population in terms of nationality?

Top 5 Countries of Origin: Mexico, China, India, Philippines, El Salvador

Who is the immigrant population in terms of age?

Age: revolving door where young Mexican working men would come but now whole families travel together

Who is the immigrant population in terms of documentation status?

In 1990, the undocumented population increased (2 million in 1930)

Rose to 12.2 million by 2007. After 2005, fewer people are coming and Obama’s presidency led to large deportation

What is a recent trend in immigration?

Mexicans aren’t the majority of unauthorized immigrants, instead venezuela, el salvador (central and south american) increase

What happened in 2007/8 (economic)?

Great Recession —> less jobs for immigrants, housing market greatly impacted the immigrant population

What are the trends in crime since 1960?

Violent crime rose in the 1980s —> gang violence over territory of where to sell crack cocaine (crack cocaine allowed lower income individuals to buy it)

Baby boomers reached crime prone age (young men)

murder rates spiked (highest reported violent crime because no one needs to come forward when there’s a body to be found)

Crime fell in the 90s

• legalized abortion (generation of criminals weren’t born)

• increase in incarceration rates

• economy was stronger (more employment, attracted immigrants)

• foreign born population increased as the violent crime rate goes down

Murder increase 2019

• increase 30%

• trust in police dropped

• police were preoccupied with social unrests

• black men homicide death rates increase (disparity of homicide rates between white and black men have never been so great than now in past decades)

• increase in racial disparities between covid and longevity —> Covid disproportionately killed old people, it is disproportionately younger individuals who died from homicide.

What are the violent crimes?

murder, rape, aggravated assault, robbery (Robbery is an interpersonal crime (has a threat of violence toward another) vs. larceny which consists of no threatening contact)

What are the three major ways we measure crime in the United States?

The FBIs Uniform Crime Report (UCR)

National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

Self Report Surveys

What are the strengths and weaknesses of the UCR?

Strengths

• bests for arrests, well-reported crimes, and homicides

• 93% of agencies report

• most popular (arrests)

• national data source ( standardized and can compare across cities, states, etc)

• can be combined with other data sources (census info, etc)

Weaknesses:

• UCR only includes reported crimes

• victimless & domestic violence crimes often not reported

• focuses on street crime (robbery vs white collar crimes)

• issues with discriminatory policing (NYC Stop and Frisk)

  • Arrest patterns reflect behavior differences between police. Madison set up a checkpoint for DUI on one Saturday and not the other. Is there an actual uptick in criminal behavior or just a change in police behavior

• “dark figure” of crime —> gap between the number of crimes reported and the number of crimes that actually occur

• Reporting guidlines not enforced and not consistent across agencies

• Limited information on Hispanics

What are the strengths and weaknesses of the NCVS?

Strengths:

• best for victim data and underreported crimes (e.g. sexual assault)

• surveys 49,000 households, 100,000 individuals 2x/year

• partially resolves the problem of underreporting (official stats may undercount crime by 70%)

• nationally represented survey

• gets at the “dark figure” of crime (better understanding of victims and contexts of victimization

Weaknesses

• suffers from selection bias

• over-reporting and under-reporting

• accuracy issues? memory recall? (do all of these victimizations constitute ‘crimes’

• no data on victimless crimes of child abuse (no information on the homeless, undocumented population)

  • Drugs Ex: 50% of federal crimes, 20% of State

What are the strengths and weaknesses of Self Reported Surveys?

Strengths

• best for offender data and for “victimless crimes” (prostitution, etc)

• illustrates the dark figure of crime

• learn more about the offenders (understanding the causes of crime, not victimization)

• anonymity and confidentiality

• examples: NLSY, Add Health, Monitoring the Future

Weaknesses

• can we expect honesty? (people can hide or exaggerate their crimes)

  • Ex: From the book Everyone Lies → condoms (asked how often men have sex and how often do they use a condom when they have sex)

    Incentive for Search History/Google → lying = incorrect information

• Can we include the most serious offenders? ( this includes “street” and “sweet” crime

• Target schools (high/middle)

  • serious offenders uncommon in HS (would get petty crimes but nothing serious)

  • many crimes are committed by people who dropped out of HS

What are the trends in deportation?

Reagan (1980s):

• The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA, 1986) granted temporary legal status to any undocumented immigrant who had been living in the US continuously since 1982 if they paid $185 and could demonstrate good moral character

Obama: increase in deportation, between 2008-2015 nearly 3 million people were deported from the United States

• Increasing shift from returns (people caught at the border) to removals (deportation) starting in 2000s

• Apprehensions of Mexicans at U.S. borders fall to near-historic lows in 2015

• Net migration from Mexico below zero after the Great Recession

Trump:

• apprehensions of citizens of countries other than Mexico increased with Trump

• In 2019, a majority of apprehensions at the U.S-Mexico Border increased in 2020 (family separation policy damaged Trump in polling)

• Apprehensions at the U.S Mexico Border increased in 2020

• ICE removals (2008-2021) decreased

Biden: granted humanitarian parole

• during the pandemic, most migrant encounters at the U.S-Mexico border have resulted in expulsion under Title 42

What are the theories international migration?

Neoclassical economics

New economics of labor migration.

World systems theory

Segmented labor market theory

Social capital theory

Cumulative causation theory

Neoclassical Economics

Theory

• international migration stems from geographic differences in supply and demand for labor

• workers move from low-wage countries to high-wage countries

• U.S. 58,030 PPP (purchasing power parity → how much units of monetary value does it take to get something e.g. a pound of flour)

  Mexico 17,740 PPP

Shortcomings

• migration should not occur in the absence of wage differentials

• wage inequality doesn’t track immigration well

• between 2005-2015 U.S-Mexico wage inequality grew while US experiences net negative migration from Mexico

• why would see circular migration?

New Economics of Labor Migration

Theory

• migration decisions are not made by isolated actors

• decisions are made within larger units of interrelated people, typically families or households but sometimes entire communities

• Families send migrants abroad to diversify income sources and reduce financial instability.

• Migration helps overcome market failures (e.g., lack of credit, insurance, or job stability in home countries).

• Example: A farmer’s family sends a member abroad to work, ensuring income even if the harvest fails

Shortcoming: doesn’t fully explain why some families migrate while others don’t in similar conditions

World Systems Theory

Theory

• what are the contexts in which people make decisions?

• international migration is linked to the changing structure of global markets (ex: building infrastructure/transportation makes it easier)

• migration is a natural outgrowth of the disruptions and dislocations that occur in the process of market expansion and penetration

  • ex: growth of commercial/industrial agriculture —> machines cut workers

Segmented Labor Market Theory

Theory

• immigration less about push factors in sending countries, but full factors in receiving countries

• the demand for inexpensive labor stems from four fundamental problems

1. Structural Inflation: If you raise the minimum wage at the bottom, you need to raise it all the way throughout.

2. Social constraints on motivation: Status and prestige determine wages (plumber vs lawyer)

3. Duality of labor and capital:

   1. Capital can be idled but not laid off (owners bear cost)

      Labor can be released when demand falls (workers bear cost)

      Less income = less workers

4. Sources have shrunk in advanced societies: Women work, declining birth rates, urbanization

   1. Example: Fast-food workers may be paid $15/hour, but long-term employees demand raises → Employers prefer hiring immigrants at low wages.

Shortcomings:

1. Assumes migrants only take low-status jobs, ignoring upward mobility.

Social Capital Theory

Theory

• migrant networks are a set of interpersonal ties that connect migrants, former migrants, and non-migrants at places of origin and destination through reciprocal ties of kinship, friendship, and shared community origin.

• They increase the likelihood of international movement because they lower the costs and risks of movement and increase the expected net returns of migration.

Cumulative causation theory

Cumulative causation theory explains how migration becomes a self-sustaining cycle. Once migration begins, it creates conditions that encourage further movement. As people migrate, they establish networks that lower barriers for others to follow. Over time, private institutions and voluntary organizations emerge to meet the growing demand for migration services, sometimes leading to black markets, such as human smuggling operations (e.g., coyotes). Each act of migration changes the social and economic landscape, influencing future migration decisions and making continued movement more likely.

What are the Eras of Immigration?

• Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo (1848)

• The Era of Enganche (1900-1929)

• The Era of Deportations (1929-1941)

• The Bracero Era (1942-1964)

• The Era of Undocumented Immigration (1965-1985

• The Great Divide (1986-2000)

What is the history of U.S-Mexico migration?

Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo (1848)

• The U.S. acquires California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and parts of Colorado, Nevada, and Utah.

• Nearly all Mexican Americans today have ancestry tracing back to after 1848.

The Era of Enganche (1900-1929)

• Railroads expand, increasing labor needs in the U.S. West.

• Recruiters use coercive labor policies ("the hook" or indentured labor).

• WWI increases demand for Mexican labor.

• 1917: Congress limits immigration, but Mexico is exempt due to labor shortages.

• Mexican migration rises due to economic and political instability from the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920).

The Era of Deportations (1929-1941)

• The Great Depression leads to anti-immigrant sentiment.

• The U.S. launches a mass deportation campaign.

• Mexican population in the U.S. drops by 41%:

  • 1930: 639,000

  • 1940: 377,400

The Bracero Era (1942-1964)

• WWII creates high labor demand, especially in agriculture.

• A binational agreement brings temporary Mexican farmworkers (Bracero Program).

• 168,000 workers arrive; the program eventually brings over 5 million.

• 1954: "Operation Wetback" increases border apprehensions (>1 million).

• Deportations double the number of braceros removed (400,000 - 450,000).

The Era of Undocumented Immigration (1965-1985)

• The Bracero Program ends due to civil rights-era labor reforms.

• U.S. farms remain dependent on Mexican labor, leading to informal migration.

• By 1982, Mexico’s economy collapses.

• Legal Mexican immigration is restricted, leading to widespread undocumented crossings.

• "Repeated trials model": Migrants attempt crossings multiple times until successful.

• Migration remains circular: 28 million entries, 23.4 million departures.

The Great Divide (1986-2000)

• 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA):

  • 50% increase in INS funding.

  • Employer sanctions for hiring undocumented workers.

  • Amnesty for ~2.3 million long-term undocumented immigrants.

• After the amnesty period, undocumented immigration surges again

How does the history of U.S-Mexico immigration relate to contemporary patterns of immigration?

• 1. Structural Dependence on Mexican Labor

  • The Bracero Program (1942-1964) established a long-term reliance on Mexican labor, particularly in agriculture. Even after the program ended, the demand for low-wage labor remained, and undocumented immigration increased.

  • Today, the U.S. economy, especially in industries like agriculture, construction, and service work, continues to depend on Mexican and Central American migrant labor. Many of these jobs are still considered “foreign” work, echoing the patterns set in motion by the Bracero Era.

• 2. Cycles of Restriction and Legalization

  • The Era of Deportations (1929-1941) and Operation Wetback (1954) show that economic downturns and shifts in public sentiment often lead to stricter immigration enforcement.

  • Similarly, contemporary policies fluctuate between crackdowns (e.g., increased ICE raids and border security) and legalization efforts (e.g., DACA and temporary protected status programs).

  • The 1986 IRCA legalized millions of undocumented immigrants but also strengthened enforcement—a pattern that continues today, with discussions about border security often tied to potential legalization pathways.

• 3. Tightened Immigration Policies and Militarization of the Border

  • Since the Great Divide (1986-2000) and the IRCA, border security has increased dramatically, making it more difficult and dangerous for migrants to cross.

  • Contemporary policies, such as the expansion of Border Patrol and the use of technology (drones, surveillance), reflect an ongoing effort to control migration, despite continued demand for labor.

  • Unlike earlier periods of circular migration (e.g., high return rates during the Bracero Program), stricter enforcement has encouraged permanent settlement rather than seasonal migration, since returning to Mexico has become riskier and more expensive.

What does Gonzales mean when he says undocumented youth need to “learn to be Illegal?”

Youth need to “learn to be legal”: Gonzales uses the phrase “learning to be illegal” to describe the transition that undocumented youth undergo as they move from a legally protected childhood to an adulthood marked by exclusion and illegality. During childhood and adolescence, undocumented youth often experience a form of “suspended illegality,” where they can attend school and participate in social life without direct legal consequences. However, as they transition to adulthood, they begin to encounter significant barriers when they attempt to access higher education, obtain a driver’s license, or seek legal employment​. Gonzales argues that undocumented youth must retool their aspirations, daily routines, and survival strategies to adapt to the constraints of illegality. This process places them in a state of developmental limbo, preventing them from fully integrating into society and often leaving them vulnerable to economic exploitation and social exclusion.

How does being undocumented affect the transition to adulthood?

• Discovery: Ages 16-18

  • Through school, they developed aspirations rooted in the belief that they were part of the fabric of the nation and would have better opportunities than their parents

  • There was a “jolt” around age 16

  • Finding a part time job, applying for college, and obtaining a license – all markers of transition – require legal status

  • Fear of detection curbed interactions with teachers and peers.

    • Uncertainty in the future and severing of support structures led to withdrawal.

    • Many were unaware of resources available.

• Learning to Illegal: Ages 18-24

  • The realization of a few choices sets in.

  • Difficult to make successful transition to college

  • Sufficient money

  • Family permission to delay or minimize work

  • Reliable transportation

  • External guidance and assistance

• Coping: Ages 25-29

  • They begin viewing their legal circumstances as permanent

  • Many drop career aspirations for security and stability

  • Especially difficult for college educated

  • Why?

    • No advantage in the low-wage labor market

    • The only markets they have access to.

  • The entry into a stigmatized identity has negative and usually unanticipated consequences for their educational and occupational trajectories, as well as for their friendships and social patterns.

    • Fear of becoming a disenfranchised underclass.

  • Whether they become a disenfranchised underclass or contributing members to our society, their fate rests largely in the hands of the state

How does the process of “illegality” differ by factors such as generation, gender, mixed families or local context?

• Generation

  • First-generation immigrants experience illegality as personal devaluation, feeling that their life is inherently worthless without legal status.

  • 1.5 generation (those that come to the U.S. as young children) experience illegality as stigma (less about deportation)

  • Ex: Some family members feeling safer driving to the airport than others

• Gender

  • Men → more at risk for deportation because of work, gendered expectations of providing financially

  • Women → less at risk of deportation, may feel unattractive, mothers may be unable to care for children in expected ways (stress, lack of social services)

• Local

  • Living in a community with mixed-status families can be helpful (otherwise may feel hostility from community)

• Mixed status families

  • A sense of insecurity makes it difficult to build solidarity

  • Neighbors, even documented, may avoid police to protect their undocumented neighbors

How do undocumented workers face a “double disadvantage” in the labor market?

The undocumented are 1.) channeled into the secondary labor market (meaning working for a non-Mexican employer and being paid cash with no taxes withheld), and 2.) they earn less money than their legal counterparts (regardless of their employment sector)

Why is the secondary labor market bad? → Illegal immigrants are often channeled into low-paying, unstable jobs with little security or opportunity for advancement. These jobs typically lack benefits like healthcare, legal protections, and job security.

What is selection bias?

Selection bias occurs when the individuals or groups being studied are not randomly selected, leading to results that are systematically skewed. This bias can arise when certain characteristics influence who is included in or excluded from a study, making the findings unrepresentative of the broader population.

Hard to measure immigration. Selecting Immigrants → Undocumented vs Documented

What are the trends in immigration enforcement?

• Increasing Border Security and Spending

  • The U.S. has significantly increased immigration enforcement, spending more on it than on the FBI, DEA, Secret Service, Marshalls, and ATF combined.

  • Border Patrol budgets have steadily risen, along with the number of federal law enforcement officers deployed for immigration enforcement​

• Tighter Laws and Policies

  • Major legislative efforts include the Immigration Reform and Control Act (1986), Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA) (1996), USA PATRIOT Act (Creates the Department of Homeland Security and increases Border Patrol budget an additional $300 million dollars), and others that expanded enforcement powers​

• Shift from Circular to Permanent Migration

  • In the past, migration between the U.S. and Mexico was more circular (workers would come and go).

  • However, due to higher risks and costs of crossing, many undocumented immigrants now stay in the U.S. permanently instead of returning home​

Why did immigration enforcement “backfire?”

Stricter enforcement reduced return migration, increasing undocumented population. Stricter policies also did not show trends in deterring immigrants from coming. Immigrants remained in the United States instead.

The combination of increasingly costly (coyotes/smugglers cost higher because it’s more difficult) and risky trips (increase in migrant deaths because routes to travel have become more dangerous e.g. deserts) and the near certainty of getting into the United States created a decision-making context in which it still made economic sense to migrate but not to return home to face the high costs and risks of subsequent entry attempts

What are the trends in local immigration ordinances?

2000s: Rise in anti-immigrant laws (e.g., Hazelton, PA; Farmers Branch, TX).

Effects: Local immigration ordinances push out undocumented immigrants but do not attract native-born workers. In fact, some areas suffer population and job losses after implementing these laws. Both noncitizen and naturalized Latinos avoid moving to states with strict immigration policies, and U.S.-born Latinos are also less likely to relocate there, though to a lesser extent.

How are immigration ordinances/policies framed?

Five Categories of Framing:

1. Political / Legal (“Law & Order”) → “I simply want my city back”; “America is a country of laws…If we break down our laws, this country will fall to ruin.

2. Nationalistic / Cultural

3. Traditional Quality of Life

4. Economic

5. National Security

Why might immigration decrease crime?

(1) Selection

People who come here are highly motivated because it's difficult to come to the U.S. (“playing the long game”)

Ability to delay gratification because there’s more at stake

(2) Formal social control

Worst punishment under the law for immigrants (strong incentive to avoid criminal wrongdoing)

Hiring more police if constituents are worried about crime

(3) Social capital and family structure

Economic revitalization and social networks

Ex: ethnic enclaves → Chinatown

More likely to have better family structure (2 parent home vs 1 parent)

Immigrants more likely to be entrepreneurial (economic revitalization)

Immigrant communities are tight knit = economic growth

(4) Cultural diffusion

The code of the streets

In certain places, what matters is your reputation. You want to have a reputation of someone who shouldn’t be messed with. E.g. in certain neighborhoods not making eye contact

Immigrants don't understand the code of streets, so things that may have turned into a conflict don’t actually occur because they don't share the same culture of violence. The issue diffused before it even started.

Why might immigration increase crime?

(1) Crime-prone population

Young men are more likely to immigrate → younger people likely to commit more crime

(2) Population instability

Social disorganization theory

New immigrant communities often experience economic hardship, population instability, and weak social ties, making them vulnerable to crime and disorder.

This is because informal social controls (strong community ties, neighborhood watch, cultural norms) take time to develop.

Different immigrant groups = more conflict between groups

(3) Poor labor market opportunities

Poverty, low educational attainment

Double disadvantage

(4) Lost economic prospects for native workers

Lower socioeconomic status and education are more likely to commit crime, if immigrants come and take these jobs then crime would increase. Immigration increasing poverty for certain groups

Competitive pressure on low skill jobs

(5) Illegal drug markets

What does the weight of the evidence say in regard to the immigration-crime nexus (relationship)?

There is not overwhelming evidence for one side, but there’s a weak negative correlation.

What is the Paradox of Assimilation?

Second-generation immigrants (the U.S.-born children of immigrants) tend to show educational and socioeconomic improvements over their parents but also experience worse outcomes in areas like crime, health, divorce, and substance

Why?

• Second generation engage in crime for the same reasons that explain involvement in crime among typical native-born youth

  • Gang involved peers

  • Delinquent peers

  • Parental education

  • School attachment

  • Emotional ties to parents

Is the immigration-crime relationship similar in European countries?

NO

1st and 2nd generation immigrants tend to be more involved in crime than native born

Immigrants with “illegal status” in the Netherlands more crime-prone than native born

In Germany and the Netherlands, Turkish and Moroccan 2nd generation tend to have higher crime rates than other groups

Complicated by lack of generation data and classifications due to citizenship laws

In the UK, immigrants with poor labor market opportunities are more likely to commit property crimes (true of native groups)

What are the contemporary debates on immigration and crime?

1. Old vs. New Destinations?

2. Racial Differences?

3. Undocumented Immigration?

4. Undocumented Immigration, Drugs, and Alcohol Problems?

5. Undocumented Immigration and Terrorism

6. Does Immigration Enforcement Reduce Crime?

7. Do Sanctuary Policies Increase Crime?

8. Do Amnesty Policies Affect Crime?

9. Doesn’t Any Crime by an Undocumented Immigrant Increase Crime?

10. Do Undocumented Immigrants Commit More Crime?

11. Historical Changes in Immigration and Crime?

What is Debate #1: Old vs. New Destinations?

• Immigration may affect crime differently in new vs old immigrant destinations

  • Dramatic shift in immigrant destinations since 1990

  • Rooted in Social Disorganization

• Old destinations: Established immigrant communities may provide stability, social cohesion, and economic opportunities, which could lower crime rates.

• New destinations: Weaker social structures, economic barriers, and lack of established immigrant communities could contribute to more social instability, which some theories suggest might lead to higher crime rates.\

Debate #2: Racial Differences?

• Immigration may have varied effects for different racial/ethnic groups.

• Some studies suggest immigration increases Black violent crime (job displacement).

• Latino immigrants in new destinations may experience higher violence rates

• HOWEVER, Light (2017) argues cross-sectional data can be misleading; longitudinal data suggests immigration reduces crime over time. Immigration is a process that unfolds over time, longitudinal design needs to be used.

Debate #3: Undocumented Immigration?

• Do undocumented immigrants commit more crime than legal immigrants?

• Evidence suggests undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes due to fear of deportation, stronger motivate individuals, strong social structures

• Undocumented immigration negatively associated with violence

• Some argue crime may be underreported in immigrant communities, so the true rates of crime are unknown.

Debate #4: Undocumented Immigration, Drugs, and Alcohol Problems

• Research Question: does the increase in undocumented immigrants correspond with the opioid epidemic? Alcohol problems?

• Some politicians claim undocumented immigrants fuel the opioid crisis or DUIs.

• Studies show no strong link between undocumented immigration and drug overdose deaths or DUI fatalities.

• Arrest data can be misleading: More arrests might reflect increased policing, not increased crime.

Debate #5: Undocumented Immigration and Terrorism (Social Science Research)?

• Does undocumented immigration increase the risk of terrorism?

• Post-9/11, immigration policy became tied to national security concerns.

• Few terrorists enter the U.S. unlawfully; most come through legal channels.

• Studies find no evidence that undocumented immigration leads to higher terrorism risks.

Debate #6: Does Immigration Enforcement Reduce Crime?

• Have stricter enforcement policies (e.g., Secure Communities) lowered crime rates?

• Secure Communities (S-Comm) to ensure that every person arrested for a crime by local law enforcement is screened by the federal government for immigration violations (wanted to deport)

• Many deported individuals were non-violent offenders (e.g., traffic violations).

• Secure Comunites didn’t work:

  • The increase in criminal deportations were primarily for less serious criminals, such as traffic offenders

    Local immigration enforcement may undermine public safety by marginalizing immigrant communities and impeding cooperation between police and local residents

Debate #7: Do Sanctuary Policies Increase Crime?

• Do cities with sanctuary policies experience more crime?

• Sanctuary policies limit local cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.

• Studies show these policies are associated with lower crime rates.

• Sanctuary cities may promote community trust, leading to better crime reporting & social control.

• Neighborhoods benefit most from immigrant concentration in terms of homicide reduction in cities that limit local enforcement of federal immigration laws.

Debate #8: Do amnesty police policies affect crime?

• Has granting legal status to undocumented immigrants affected crime rates?

• 1986: IRCA (amnesty for 2.7M undocumented immigrants) had no effect on violent crime but reduced property crime.

• Why? Legal status allows access to jobs → fewer incentives for theft & illegal work.

• Findings suggest legalization reduces economic-motivated crimes.

Debate #9: Doesn’t any crime by an undocumented immigrant increase crime?

• Does the fact that some undocumented immigrants commit crimes mean they increase overall crime?

• Using this logic, any group (e.g., men, young people, sports fans) could be blamed for crime.

• Crime rates must be analyzed per capita, not just based on total numbers. (NYC experiences higher crime numbers than Detroit because it has far more people, but Detroit is more dangerous)

• Studies show undocumented immigrants commit less crime per capita than native-born individuals

Debate #10: Do Undocumented Immigrants Commit More Crime?

• Are undocumented immigrants more criminal than other groups?

• Major crime databases (UCR, NCVS) do not track immigration status.

  • Data quality has just gotten worse.

• Texas is the only state with full immigration-status crime data, showing undocumented immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than both native-born and legal immigrants.

• Claims of high undocumented immigrant crime often rely on flawed or misleading statistics.

Debate #11: Historical Changes in Immigration and Crime

• Crime differences between immigrants & U.S.-born are not explained by demographics (age, race, education, etc.).

• Due to changes in immigration policy: Crime rates declined among U.S. citizen immigrants the most, and deportations increased later (2000s).

• Not due to incarceration-crime relationship: If the criminal justice system favored immigrants, it would understate their crime rates.

• Not due to underreporting: Crime declines were observed across all immigrant groups, including before mass deportations.

• Overall trend: The widening of the incarceration gap is part of a trend of growing differences between immigrants and the US-Born

This federal organization has the most law enforcement officers by far

US Customs and Border Protection (>35,000)

More than double

Using longitudinal data, what is the relationship between Latino immigration and homicide for whites, blacks, and Hispanics (1990-2010) Does distination type matter?

The relationship is consistently negative, regardless of destination type

What does the evidence say about the link between undocumented immigration and crime?

Overall, undocumented immigration is negatively associated with violence

What are the two largest immigrant receiving countries?

USA (>50 million)

Germany (~15.7 million)

Overall, the weight of evidence regarding immigration and crime suggests…

The most recent wave of U.S immigration has not increased crime, and may have actually helped reduce criminal violence

According to more recent research, the most recent wave of immigration may increase crime for African Americans. Why?

Displacing black workers in the low-skilled labor market

Conservative response to argument: people don’t want to do those jobs because no one wants to do them because they are paid poorly and in cash

True of False: Mexicans comprise the majority of undocumented immigrants in the U.S

False → As of 2021, Mexicans comprised ~4.1 million while non-Mexicans made up 6.4 million

True or False? Deportations have increased dramatically over the past ~ 20 years

True. Between 2008-2015, nearly 3 million people were deported from the United States, roughly 270,000 more than over the entire last century

True or False? Research from the early 1990s generally confirmed the fear that immigration increase crime

False → Dillingham Commission and Wickersham Commission

According to more recent research, the most recent wave of immigration may increase crime in these areas…

New immigrant destinations (more social networks, economic prospects, easier transition that doesn’t have a history of having immigrants)

According to Dr. Light, recent immigration research suffers from one major methodological problem…

Entirely cross-sectional data (need longitudinal because it’s a process that unfolds over time)

This is the most commonly used source of official crime statistics…

UCR → FBIs Uniform Crime Reports

This is the most commonly used source of information on criminal victimization…

The National Crime Victimization Survey → NCVS

This is the best source of information on criminal behavior…

Self Report Studies such as NLSY, Ad Health, PHDCN

How can we be confident that crime went down during the same time immigration increased (how do we know its not just less reported)?

Decreased reporting wouldn’t explain the decline in homicide or victimizations that were not reported to the police