Chinese Foreign Policy

Responsible Great Power

Large, influential nation that actively participates in global governance and upholds international peace

China = Chair of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Founder of AIIB, Belt and Road Initiative

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

World’s largest regional intergovernmental organization by geographic scope and population

China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, Iran, Belarus

AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)

Finances sustainable infrastructure projects globally

Belt and Road Initiative (One Belt One Road)

China’s international cooperation and economic strategy, announced in 2013

Global infrastructure and development strategy that aims to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe through an extensive network of railways, ports, highways, etc. boosting global trade and expanding China’s political and economic influence

Wolf Warrior Diplomacy

Aggressive, confrontational foreign policy adopted by Chinese diplomats

Combative social media presence, public rebukes, unapologetic nationalism

Strategic Competitor

China as a potential challenger seeking regional hegemony

Challenges the existing liberal international order

Trump 1st Term

Era of “America First!”

MAGA

Protectionism, uncertainty, sanctions, negotiation, anti-globalism

Biden Presidency

Era of rehabilitating US world leadership, recommitting to democratic values, and pressuring China on human rights

Trump 2nd Term

Era of “Keep America Great”

Institutionalized MAGA movement

Tariff pressure

1978

The year Deng Xiaoping became the leader

China opened up to foreign trade and investment

1989

The year Tiananmen Square happened

Tiananmen Square

Site of 1989 pro-democracy protests and military crackdown

1997

Year of transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong from UK

Year of Deng Xiaoping’s death

1999

Year of Chinese anti-American protests following the NATO bombing of a Chinese embassy in Belgrade

2001

Year of China’s entry into the WTO, which allowed it to grow economically

2008

Year of Global Financial Crisis

Rise of “east is rising, west is declining” mentality + Beijing olympics

2013

Year Xi Jinping came into power

2018

The year the US-China trade war began

Abolition of presidential term limits

2020

Year that COVID-19 began

Chimerica

Term referring to the symbiotic, highly-integrated, trade co-dependent relationship between China and the United States

America consumed, China manufactured

Declined after the 2008 financial crisis

US believed that by integrating China into the global economic system, it would foster economic growth and lead to demands for political freedom and democratization

Global Financial Crisis (2008)

Most severe worldwide economic downturn since the Great Depression; global crisis led to a number of bank failures

US’ global leadership was challenged, and Chinese perception of the US changed

“East is rising, west is declining”

Kissinger Consensus

The US would facilitate China’s economic integration and rise, in return for Beijing acknowledging American hegemony and stabilizing the global order

Failure of US’ expectation of China (they didn’t democratize after developing)

Thucydides Trap

The idea that there is an inherent danger of war when a rising power threatens to displace an established ruling power

Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions, or Washington can accept being #2 in the Pacific, tensions could escalate into war

Power Transition Theory

Theory that global stability occurs when power is clearly concentrated in a satisfied dominant hegemon

Conflict arises when a rapidly growing, dissatisfied challenger increases in strength (approaches parity) → begins to overtake the dominant power

Hierarchical system: dominant nation → great powers → middle powers → small powers

China Threat Theory

Theory that states that the rise of the PRC poses a significant danger to regional stability, the global economic order, and Western democratic values

China’s consistent modernization and improvement as proof of its hidden intention for hegemony

Increased popularity since 2018, when Trump initiated trade war

National Security Strategy (NSS)

Submitted every 4 years, outlines the US’ vision for foreign policy, security objectives, national interests

Blueprint for administration’s foreign and security policy

Shift from coop

Managed Competition

Idea that the U.S. needs to avoid unnecessary confrontation and not provoke China → limit harmful behaviors, but do not insist on transformation

Criticism: this could embolden China to act more aggressively

American Triumphalism

Ideological belief that the US possess exceptional qualities that make its political and economic systems superior

Hide and Bide

Idea that China must conceal its strength and avoid direct confrontation

Hundred Year Marathon

China’s long term strategy to displace the US by the PRC’s 100th year in 2049

China has always sought to overtake and surpass the U.S.

Upstart Strategy

A calculated mix of three distinct approaches that China took to maximize its power while minimizing the risk of premature American backlash

Emulation, exploitation (Global South, Africa), and entrepreneurship

Emulation

One pillar of China’s Upstart Strategy

Copying the successful strategies, institutions, and practices established by the U.S.

Exploitation

One pillar of China’s Upstart Strategy

Taking American methods/strategies and applying them in spaces/domains that the US had neglected, ignored, or abandoned

Ex. Global South, Africa

Entrepreneurship

One pillar of China’s Upstart Strategy

Developing unique, innovative, and non-traditional approaches the US never attempted

Made in China 2025

Plan launched in 2015 to transform China into a global high-tech superpower

Aim to develop China’s manufacturing sectors

Key sectors: semiconductors, robotics, AI, EVs

China Standards 2035

Goal to shift China’s role from global manufacturer to an architect of international tech rules → by writing specifications, protocols, and safety limits for global industries, will reduce reliance on foreign IP and secure long-term geopoliticall and technological leverage

Plan launched in 2018

SDO (Standards Developing Organization)

Entity whose primary activity is developing, coordinating, and publishing technological standards

China is gaining power within these organizations

Global South Coalition

China positions itself as the natural leader and core partner of the Global South

Emphasizes anti-colonial solidarity, non-interference, and a reformed, multi-polar global order

Peak China

The argument that China has already reached, or is about to reach, the peak of its national power in terms of economy, population, military, and technology and will soon enter a period of decline

Peak China Reasoning

Slowing growth, demographic decline, property and debt crises, intensifying US-China rivalry

Concern that historically peaking powers can be more dangerous than rising ones, closing window logic

Peak China Counterarguments

China is the world’s second largest economy and a leading industrial/tech power (EVs, batteries, AI, renewables)

Authoritarian centralization may provide resilience and mobilization capacity in crises

Peaking Power Trap

Theory that nations become most dangerous when their economic growth stalls, demographic crises begin, and rival alliances close in

They fear their window for global dominance is closing and lash out with aggressive, expansionist policies while they still have the capacity to

Structural Decline

Rather than temporary setbacks, deep-rooted economic, demographic, and political problems lead to decline