Demographic Factors

What used to be seen as the most reliable predictor of voting behaviour

Class- following the decline of the liberal party after the first world war, many voting behaviour analysts believed that social class was the best predictor of someones likely voting behaviour

Peter Pulzer- “Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail.”

Explain what class alignment used to be like with an example

Labour tended to emerge as the dominant party amongst the working class, while the conservatives retained their strong performances amongst middle and upper class voters- this is an example of class allignment

E.G.- 1964 GE- Labour won 22 percent of middle class votes and 64 percent of working class votes, compared to conservatives winning 62 percent of middle class votes and 28 percent of working class votes.

what are all the different categories for different social classes

AB- people in higher or intermediate managerial, administration and professional roles.

C1- People in supervisiory, clerical or lower level managerial , administration or proffesional roles.

C2- People in skilled manual occupations

DE- People in semi skilled and unskilled manual ocupations and unemployed people.

Definition of class dealignment

when people dont follow the traditional voting behaviour of their social class

give two examples of class dealignment in recent decades

1. 2019 GE- Conservatives performed better with C2DE voters (48 percent) then with ABC1 voters (43 percent). Labour performed the same in both (33 percent)

2. During the Blair era, many ABC1 voters started to support new labour because of Tony Blairs more centralist views rather than traditional left

Give two examples of age now being considered a better predictor of voting behaviour than class

1. Age seems to be a more consistent indicator of voting behaviour:
   2019 GE- 67 percent of the over 70 vote, 22 percent of under 30 vote. 2024 GE- despite the landslide defeat to labour, they still won 46 percent of the vote for over 60s.

2. Labour has consistently performed better with younger voters compared to older ones:
   2024- won 43 percent of under 30 vote 2019- 55 percent of under 30 vote. They lost votes for under 30s in 2024 desppite a more successful GE because the green party won 11 percent more of under 30 vote compaired to 2019. In 2019, Labour won just 14 percent of over 70 vote , compaired to 20 percent in 2024.

Give an example of education becoming a more reliable predictor of voting behaviour

In both the 2019 and 2024 GE, Labour performed much better than the conservatives among graduates:

In 2019, Labour won 43 percent of graduate votes, compared with 29 percent for the conservatives.

In 2024, Labour won 42 percent of their votes, and the conservatives won 18 percent.

Explain what is meant by voters becoming disillusioned with political parties, and give an example of it

If some voters feel like their interests aren’t being represented by politicns, they may become dillusioned and this leads to apathy. It can be characterised by low election turnout and a lack of awareness of current political events.

E.G.- in the 2024 GE, areas with high levels of young voters or muslim voters has lower turnouts than others. This may suggest that there is some disillusionment within these demographics