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Project valuation
firms acquire productive capacity by assembling necessary assets
Enterprise valuation
acquisitions of entire businesses, acquiring the productive assets of an existing firms
How much of large investment projects fail to achieve their hoped-for results
over half
Potential causes of large investment projects not reaching potential
managers "go with their gut," investments in risky projects, uncertain future events, incomplete information
Five key issues to consider when a company is making a major investment
1. Does the "story" make sense?, 2. What are the risks involved in undertaking the investment?, 3. How can the investment be financed?, 4. How does the investment affect near-term earnings?, 5. Does the investment have inherent flexibilities?
Three-Phase Investment valuation process
Investment Origination and Analysis, managerial review and recommendation, managerial decision and approval
Financial statement analysis
the process of analyzing a firm's financial statements to learn about how well the firm is being managed and the firm's future performance potential
Fixed asset formula
FA of the previous year + Capex spending - Depreciation
Problems that can be detected by financial statement analysis
uncollectible accounts receivable, unsellable inventory, overstated book values of PPE, excessive probability of financial distress due to debt financing
Days Sales Outstanding
(AR/Sales) * 365, if a company is increasing their A/R a lot for earnings management, it will negatively affect their DSO
Inventory Turnover
COGS / Inventory
Days Payable Outstanding
(AP/Sales) * 365
Solving for accounts receivable using days sales outstanding
A/R= DSO * (Sales / 365)
Liquidity Ratios
current ratio, quick ratio, cash ratio
Current ratio
current assets / current liabilities
Quick ratio
(current assets - inventory) / current liabilities
Cash ratio
cash / current liabilities
Long-Term solvency Capitalization ratios
debt ratio, debt-to-equity ratio, asset multiplier
Long-Term solvency Coverage ratios
TIE ratio, EBITDA Coverage
Total debt ratio
debt / assets
Debt-to-equity ratio
debt/equity
Asset multiplier
assets/equity
TIE ratio
EBIT / interest expense
EBITDA coverage
(EBIT + depreciation expense) / Interest expense
A firm's ability to make their interest payment depends on two things
the level of its cash flows and the volatility of those cash flows
Asset and Liability Management Ratios
Inventory Turnover, Receivables Turnover, Payables Turnover
Inventory Turnover
CoGS/Inventory
Receivables Turnover
Sales/Receivables
Payables Turnover
CoGS/AP
Days Inventory Outstanding
(Inventory/COGS) * 365, How long does it take to convert inventory to a sale?
Days Sales Outstanding
How long does it take us to collect?, (AR/Sales) * 365
Days Payable Outstanding
How long are we taking to pay for our Inventory?, (AP/COGS) * 365
Cash Conversion Cycle
How long does it take to go from paying for our inventory to getting paid for our sales?, DSO + DIO - DPO
Profit margin
Net Income / Revenue
EBITDA Margin
EBITDA / revenue
Return on assets
Net income / assets
Return on equity
Net income / equity
Dupont equation
Return on assets * (assets / equity) OR (NI/Sales) * (Sales/Assets) * (Assets / Equity) OR Profit margin * Asset Turnover * Equity multiplier
P/E ratio
Share price / EPS
Market-to-Book ratio
Market cap / book equity
Market capitalization
shares outstanding * share price
Enterprise value
market value of entire firm
EV multiples
an example of one of these is EV/EBITDA
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) process
forecast free cash flows, solve for WACC, discount FCF using WACC to estimate the value of the project
Relevant cash flows
cash flows directly generated by the investment, indirect effects that the investment may have on a firm's other lines of business
Incremental Cash Flows
projected revenues and costs of a new product, includes potential cannibalization of other existing products, sunk costs are not incremental cash flows and should be ignored
Free Cash Flow formula for a firm
EBIT * (1-T) = NOPAT, NOPAT + depr. - Capex - ΔNWC = FCF
Free cash flow formulas for a project
FCF = EBIT(1 - T) + Dep/Amort. -∆ONWC - CAPEX
Operating net working capital formula
(current assets - cash) - (current liabilities - current portion of interest bearing debt)
Contribution margin in Year T formula
(price per unit in year T - Variable cost per unit in Year T) / (price per unit in year T)
CapEx formula
Ending PP&E − Beginning PP&E + Depreciation Expense
After-Tax Salvage Value formula
Salvage Value - Tax rate * (SV-BV)