rise of china

is china an aggressive state?

they claim not to be but a (american) realist would probably say yes

what are china’s constraints

structural constraints

1. shrinking population/ghost cities

2. rapid industrialization

3. environment issues

4. corruption

5. inequality

what are china’s capabilities?

1. largest modern military force

2. many weapons

3. skilled crafts

4. blue water capabilities

is the china threat real?

Mearsheimer says yes, realists probably would too (security dilemma)

general china facts

• official language: mandarin

• capital: Beijing

• about 9.6 mil km²

• about 1.35 bil population, expected to shrink in coming years

• authoritarian state, communist party

realism approach to the china threat

says china is growing economically and that will be converted into military power, so a US-China conflict is coming

voluntary constraints

we really want to do something negative but instead we will do something positive

US voluntary constraint against china

in 1971, china replaced Taiwan in the UN Security Council, we wanted to nuke them but instead we opened trade agreements, we voluntarily restrained ourselves

structural constrints

things that inhabit ones ability to engage in conflict

china population constraint

china has a shrinking population and an increased demand for public services

china industrialization constraint

china’s rapid industrialization has little concern for environmental problems

china environmental constraint

china has bad water pollution and water shortage, soil erosion, landslides, deforestation, and flooding

china corruption constraint

china is corrupt and has shoddy construction work with little regard for human lives/potential dangers

china inequality constraint

china has inequality and discrimination/prejudice against ethnic minorities and social economic status’

china weapon capabilities

missile tech, aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons and submarines, and advanced warplanes

china skilled craft capabilities

cyber hacking; diplomacy and intelligence operations; and they stole US secrets, allegedly stole designs for a thermo nuclear warhead

china blue water capabilities

they have nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers which are considered sovereign territory, even in the sky

what are china’s foreign policy goals?

1. preservation of territorial integrity

2. recovery of lost territories china considers to be part of china

3. recognition of the chinese communist party as the sole legitimate government of china

4. enhancement of chinas international structure

what challenges does china face?

1. US hegemony (trying to contain china)

2. Chinese hegemony (can they do it),

3. Unpredictable north korean nuclear program next door

4. Taiwan

5. Territorial disputes with japan

6. US+Japan’s responses to chinas rise in power

how much did china increased thier military spending in this century?

total about 500 billion dollars; 21.5 bil (1998) → 532 bil (2010)