Decisionmaking heur 2

- Uncertainty → Heuristics used for efficiency.

Decision Making:

- Mental shortcuts → prone to errors.

Heuristics:

- Judging based on similarity → ignore statistical probabilities.
- Examples: Kahneman & Tversky (base rate neglect), Gambler’s Fallacy.

Representativeness Heuristic:

- Smaller samples → more variation (Williams v Florida jury case).

Sample Size Ignorance:

- Probability judgments based on ease of recall.
- Factors: Saliency, Familiarity, Recency.
- Example: Ross & Sicoly (household chores → people recall their own tasks more).

Availability Heuristic:

- Starting from a set point and adjusting (often insufficiently).
- Example: Mock jury and damage requests.

Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic:

- More quantity → perceived as better.
- Example: Josephs, Giesler & Silvera → font size and essay length.

Possible Quantity Heuristic:

- Too much choice → paralysis, lower satisfaction.
- Attractive features of alternatives → opportunity costs.
- Small arrays → more purchases.
- Satisfactory middle ground → "sweet spot".
- Generalizations must be contextualized.

Paradox of Choice (In-class notes):