president powerrs

Bush Iraq decision point : context

In March 2003, a meeting took place in the white house situation room where key leaders, such as General Tommy Franks ( the commanding general), were present, projecting from a secure video screen from an air base in Saudia Arabia - he talked about how the force was ready

• to launch an invasion of Iraq, emphasizing the need for a timely and coordinated response to the growing threat posed by Saddam Hussein.

How did the US attempt to deal with the Saddam?

1. The US had attempted to gain a unanimous United Nations Security Council resolution - the diplomacy involved reaching out to leaders across the globe such as British Prime Minister – although they didn’t have full support, the US proceeded, believing that the failure to gain a resolution did not eliminate the threat posed by Sadda, 

2. Following the invasion, the decision to execute the war came under strict scrutiny when weapons of mass destruction were not found - the CIA reported that Saddam had destroyed his programs after the 1991 Gulf war and had not continued with the large-scale production

What does the Iraq decision point under George W. Bush ?

1. the use of war powers and unilateral action

2. credibility, intelligence failure, and accountability 

3. symbolic v substantive policymaking 

How much aid has the US sent to Ukraine?

1. Scale of US aid; since the February 2022 invasion, Ukraine has become the top recipient of U.S. foreign aid -> Congress has passed five bills = totaling 175 billion 

   1. However, the total aid committed directly to the government of Ukraine is 128 billion, with the US providing a 20 billion loan late in 2024, funded by interest from frozen russian assets  – a large portion of the money in the aid bills is spent within the US 

   2. Since the invasion, congress has authorized a total budget of 175 billion across five bills committed directly to the Ukrainian government 

      1. The article highlights that a large portion of this funding is spent domestically within the US to fund defense manaufacturing and replinish US weapon stocks 

         1. The military aid provided incldues advanced systems like Javelin anti-amor systems 

         2. Also noting how Trump temporarily froze military aid and annouced a plan for NATO allies to pay for US weapons for Ukraine while also threating secondary tariffs on Russia

WMD Controversy

• virtually all intelligence services believed Saddam had WMD HOWEVER no WMD were found after invasion, which was intelligence failure. 

aid magnitude

Ukraine is the top recipient of U.S. foreign aid, the first European country to hold this position since the Marshall Plan.

•  Since the war began, the U.S. Congress has authorized $175 billion in aid through five bills. The amount committed directly to the government of Ukraine is approximately $128 billion, including military, budget, and humanitarian support. Additionally, a $20 billion loan was provided in late 2024, funded by interest from frozen Russian assets.

International comparison

the U.S. contribution is the largest compared to any single country, particularly regarding military aid.

Howell institutional presidency 

The presidency was transformed starting around the 1900s due to factors including the push for government activism (Progressive Era), the rationalization of bureaucracy through scientific management, the advent of "total war," and the expansion of social movements.

stewardship theory

Theodore Roosevelt adopted the "stewardship theory," believing the president could do anything not forbidden by the Constitution to serve the nation.

literalist theory

William Howard Taft countered with the "literalist theory," arguing the president could only exercise power explicitly granted or implied by the Constitution.

Modern Presidency

Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) ushered in the modern, more powerful and institutionalized presidency. FDR’s second term saw the creation of the Executive Office of the President (EOP) based on the recommendations of the Brownlow Committee, intended to provide neutral, competent bureaucrats but ultimately becoming a resource for presidential loyalty. FDR's actions during World War II dramatically expanded the executive branch, using broad emergency powers for mobilization.

Presidential motivation

 Presidents want to make good policy, win elections, and secure a positive legacy ("play to the ages").

Substantive policy making

alters the doings of government but is costly, faces institutional obstacles (Congress, courts, bureaucracy), and the benefits (policy outcomes) are delayed and uncertain.

Symbolic policymaking 

clarifies the president's position, helps them claim credit, and boosts immediate popularity, but does not substantially change the status quo. It faces fewer institutional constraints.

Types of Symbolic Action: Think pieces 

 Executive actions ordering the development of policies through new commissions or task forces

Types of symbolic action : Policy non sequiturs

Actions that change administrative procedure but do not effectively address the stated problem.

Types of symbolic action: Basket bets

 High-risk actions likely to fail but which signal the president's position powerfully (e.g., DAPA).

Strategic timing

 Presidents use a mixed strategy. Actions become less substantive and more symbolic as election day approaches (to maximize immediate popularity) or as opposition increases. Conversely, the lame-duck period is likely to be more substantive (as immediate popularity matters less than legacy).

Shared powers

The U.S. government is defined not by "separated powers" but by "separate institutions sharing powers".

The power to persuade

the core of presidential power is the power to persuade. presidents succedd by convincing other political actors that the president’s requested action serves their self-interest 

Bargaining advantages

 Presidential persuasion relies on bargaining advantages drawn from their formal authority, professional reputation, and public prestige.

Recess appointments as unilateral power

recess appointments allow president to fill vacancies without senate “advice and consent” until the end of the next senate session → constituting a unilateral power that forces congress to react 

checking power

Congress can check presidential unilateral powers when the presidential action creates high political costs for members and when the collective action threshold is low.

The bush case

president bush used recess appointments far more frequently than predecessors→ senate democrats perceived that allowing bush to continue would lead to extreme political costs

Low threshold action

Reid successfully blocked Bush by implementing pro forma sessions (short meetings where no business is conducted), which technically kept the Senate from being in "recess". This procedural change was a low-cost solution requiring only the support of the Democratic majority caucus.

Deterrence theory

Deterrence is fundamental to national security and involves preventing an opponent from initiating conflict, often through the commitment of costs. Effective deterrence requires threats to be both credible and efficacious.

Game theory application

 The source uses game theory, including variants of the Prisoner's Dilemma and Chicken, to model strategic conflicts.

Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)

 This crisis is analyzed as a two-person, two-move game (U.S. choices: Air strike or Blockade; Soviet choices: Withdrawal or Maintenance). The crisis is represented as a Chicken game. The agreed-upon resolution (Soviet withdrawal in exchange for a U.S. non-invasion pledge and secret missile withdrawal from Turkey) is seen as the Compromise outcome (3, 3), representing the most rational and stable strategy.

Separations of Powers

Legislative power is vested in Congress (Article I, Section 1), executive power in the President (Article II, Section 1), and judicial power in the Supreme Court and lower courts (Article III, Section 1).

Presidential powers (Article II, Section 2)

The President is the Commander in Chief. He nominates officers, judges, and makes treaties "by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate".

War powers (Article I, Section 8)

Congress retains the power "To declare War".

Green Latern Theory

the belief that the American president is functionally all-powerful and can achieve any political objective if only they try hard enough or employ the correct tactics.

What weaknesses does green latern theory have

This theory is fundamentally false because it ignores the foundational design of the U.S. government, which established a relatively weak executive and a powerful legislature.

Counterproductive action

Political science research demonstrates that when a president takes a strong position, the opposition party is often more likely to oppose the measure, viewing elections as zero-sum affairs where presidential success hurts the opposition's electoral chances.

Historical conception with the Green Lantern theory

 Historical examples of strong presidential leadership, such as LBJ's successes, are often misattributed solely to willpower, ignoring the reality of huge Congressional majorities and the low level of party polarization prevalent at the time.

Core function of the executive branch

Take care Clause (article II, Section 3) requires the president to take care that the laws be faithfully executed 

Green Lantern theory of the presidency

1. the belief that the president can achieve any policy goal through enough willpower, persuasion, or leadership→ Often used to critique unrealistic expectations of presidents – for example, when people expected Obama to pass major reforms despite congressional gridlock

Article II of the U.S. Constitution

the section that establishes the executive branch, outlines presidential powers, and defines duties and limits  → used to justify actions like issuing executive orders, commanding the military, and making treaties (with senate approval)

Constitutional powers of the president

1. the powers explicitly stated in Article II (e.g., veto power, commander-in-chief, pardons, appointments, treaties)

Presidential role in the shared/separated powers system

1.  the president operates within a system where powers are divided among branches, requiring negotiation and cooperation → the president must work with Congress to pass legislation and may face judicial review from the Supreme Court 

The electoral college

1. the constitutional mechanism for electing the president, where states voters are weighted by their congressional representation 

   1. Allows a candidate to win the presidency without winning the popular vote

Institutionalisation of the presidency

 the process by which the presidency developed permanent structures, staff, and bureaucratic support (the Executive Office of the President)— New deal era expanded the white house staff and formalized policy

Mutually assured destruction (MAD)

Cold War doctrine where both sides posses enough nuclear weapons to destory each other, deterring first strikes

Prisoners dilemma and chicken games – cold war

1. Game theory models of conflict and cooperation

   1. “Chicken” models nuclear standoffs and presidents used signlaing like “naval blockades” to force cooperation or avoid escalation 

1. Lessons from Cuban Missle Crisis to ukraine/ russia 

1. caution in escalation, backchannel communication and the role of deterrence 

   1. Bidens diplomacy mirrors Kennedys crisis mangagement in avoiding direct US-Russia confrontation

1. Neustadt’s power to persuade 

1. Presidential power depends on persuasion and bargaining, not command 

   1. Presidents must convince congress, bureaucracy and the public to act not just issue orders

Bully pulpit

1. he presidents platform to shape public opinion and influence policy 

   1. FDRs “fireside chats” or biden speeches on democracy use media to rally public support

Spatials models of voting

1. graphic models showing voter and candidate preferences on a policy spectrum (helps explain candidiate strategy → presidents often move toward the median voter 

Impoundments

1. when a president refuses to spend funds appropriated by congress → when a president refuses to spend funds appropriated by congress   

   1. Nixon used this to block programs he opposed; congress later passed the 1974 budget act to restrict it 

1. Recess appointments and presidential powers 

1. Temporary appointments made without senate confirmation while congress is in recess

   1. Used by presidents to bypass senate opposition (Obamas NLRB appointments)

1. How have presidents increased power overtime 

1. Through precedent, war powers, executive orders, emergency actions and media influence → modern presidency is far stronger than the framers envisioned, with expanded administrative and foreign policy roles 

important dates to 13 day cuban missile crisis

• 17th, US military units began to move to bases in Southeastern US as intelligence founds additional missiles around the Island 

• Day 3, soviet minister basically told Kennedy that those missiles are just there for defense but Kennedy already knew wassup so he ain’t want to say anything

• Day 5– kennedy returns to washington after 5 hours of discussion with top advisers and decides on quarantine – plans for deploying naval units are drawn and work is begun on a speech to notify the american people 

• Day 6- Tactical air command tells him that an air strike could not guarantee 100% destruction of missiles

• Day 7 – president kennedy delivers a speech telling the American citizens about the nuclear weapons found in cuba and he asserts that Russia remove their weapons immeditaley 

• Both US and USSR get ready on the defense – Kennedy was scared that Russia would not adhere to the US warnings, causing the US ships to attack 

• Day 9 – words from the general “"You, Mr. President, are not declaring a quarantine, but rather are setting forth an ultimatum and threatening that if we do not give in to your demands you will use force”

• Day 10 - a little light day but still had tension 

• Day 11- Fidel castro urges Nikita (leader of Russia) to fire upon America in the event of an American Invasion of Cuba 

• Day 12- plane is shot down and Kennedy resists pressure for immediate military action against the SAM sites 

  • They understand that the USSR will withdraw the missiles from Cuba under the UN supervision inexchange for an American pledge not to invade Cuba - in an additional secret, understanding the United States agrees to eventually remove the Jupiter missiles from Turkey 

• Day 13– moscow accepts this proposed solution and releases the text of a Krushchev letter affirming the missiles will be removed