US elections

US presidential elections have how many stages

7

7 stages of presidential elections

• invisible primary

• primaries and caucuses

• running mate selection

• NNCs

• election campaigns

• election day and count

• electoral college

when is the invisible primary

from when first candidate declares to the start of the Iowa caucus

what happens during invisible primary

candidates focus on raising as much money as they can, campaigning in key states, improving their national name recognition etc

what debates are held in invisible primary

party debates between candidates, in 2016 there were so many republican ones they had to have 2 debates in one night

invisible primary in 2016

trump trailed ted cruz throughout but went on to win nomination comfortably

significance of invisible primary

sets the tone for election but many front runners during this state don’t get the nomination

who can be president

natural born citizen of the usa, at least 35 and have lived in the US for at least 14 years

where does the primary process begin

With the caucus in Iowa and primary in New Hampshire

open primaries

anyone eligible to vote in a presidential election able to vote for their preferred candidate

closed primaries

only allow registered supporters of the party to vote

caucuses

voters express preference by physically gathering in a designated area

primary

fill out a ballot paper to express preference

party delegates

nominated representatives of the parties in each state, more populous states have more so their primaries have more influence on nomination result

how do primaries work

candidates compete for party delegates who’s votes at the NNCs help to decide the party’s final choice of candidate

how are delegates awarded

winner takes all in some and proportionally in others

Super Tuesday

largest day after iowa and new hampshire that happens on first tuesday in march

after super tuesday

over 20 states have indicated preferences so one candidate usually has clear sense of momentum

Joe Biden 2020

expected to pull out after poor performance in Iowa and new hampshire but got a surprising 9 states on super tuesday

balanced ticket

idea that between them a presidential candidate and their running made should balance each other out in terms of their age, experience, ideology, regional background and appeal to voters

when is running mate selected

once party’s nominee has been confirmed successful candidate choses their vp candidate but in reality these agreements have been made prior to this

why did Kamala pick Waltz

it was hoped that the minnesota governor would help her target white midwestern rural voters in key states like Wisconsin and Michigan

president who chose different running mate from VP

FDR changed twice

National Nominating Conventions

NNCs, stage when delegates cast final votes, decide party platform and policies on key issues

formal powers of NNCs

declined as candidates generally already known so their purpose has become more informal in generating media attention and boosting party polling figures

2020 trump NCC

gained a narrow lead over Biden after RNC but lost both popular vote and electoral college

2024 DNC

aimed at promoting Kamala so Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey and Biden

televised debates since when

every election since 1960

Swing states fact

In the 3 months up to 2024 election all the main candidates made over 200 visits to the 7 swing states

Electoral college aim

designed by the framers as a safeguard against authoritarian rule

how is the number of ECVs determined

number of representatives plus number of senators a state has

How many ECVs to win

270 mins

states that don’t have winner takes all ecv

maine and nebraska

times when ECVs were the deciding factor

2000 and 2016

spending surin

2024 harris spending

spent just over 1.6 billion with her campagin and affiliated superpacs compared to trump’s one billion

how many states hosted no official campaign events in 2020

33

80 percent of americans

live in non battleground states

california since 1992

has voted democrat

2024 swing states

hosted 94% of the official campaign events

How many more votes did Gore win

500,000 more but didn’t win

elections where ECV determined outcome

5

Clinton votes v Trump

3 million more but only got 227 ECVs to Trump’s 304

instance where EC has distorted votes

1984, Regan wins 59% of popular vote but 98% of ECVs

Ross Perot 1992

got 19% of the vote but no ECVs

alternatives to electoral college

congressional district method which is used in Maine and Alaska

National popular vote

Direct national election

congressional district method

presidential candidates would have to win a majority of the 435 congressional districts rather than states

direct national election

would abolish electoral college completely and automatically elect who wins popular vote

National Popular vote

states promise to give ECVs to candidate who wins the popular vote, since April 2024 17 states and the district of Columbia have passed laws pledging to adopt it but they can’t do it until its a constitutional amendment

issues with the congressional district model

suffers from gerrymandering

issues with direct national election

less populous states would have less of an impact so campaigning would continue to be very concentrated

Citizens United v FEC

2010, ruled political donations are covered under 1st amendment

What did Citizens United v. FEC allow corporations and unions to do?

Spend unlimited money on political campaigns, as long as it was not coordinated directly with candidates.

What are Super PACs?

Political action committees that can raise and spend unlimited sums independently of campaigns/parties.

What were the top-spending Super PACs in 2020?

: Senate Leadership Fund ($295m – Republicans) and Senate Majority PAC ($230m – Democrats).

How much did campaign spending increase from 2004 to 2020?

From under $2 billion to over $14 billion.

What’s an example of disproportionate influence in a state proposition?

Prop 22 (2020, California): Uber & DoorDash spent $200m vs unions' $15m — the proposition passed.

Example of industry influence?

2/3 of Congress received pharma donations in 2020 — possibly limiting drug regulation.

Who spent more in 2016 — Clinton or Trump? Who won?

Clinton spent more than double, but Trump won.

How did Trump overcome funding disadvantage?

Dominated free media with controversial statements, gaining ~$2bn in coverage.

Can campaigns succeed without big donors? Example?

Yes — Obama’s 2008 campaign had 90% of donations under $100.

What was Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign message and slogan?

Fiscal responsibility and deficit reduction; slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

What message helped Obama in the 2008 election?

Positive messages of “Yes, We Can”

What were Trump’s key policies and slogan in 2016?

Build a wall, replace Obamacare; slogan: “America First.”

What economic event harmed Trump’s 2020 campaign?

COVID-19 recession reduced his approval from 49% to 38%.

What happened with McCain’s 2008 running mate?

Sarah Palin helped at first, but made gaffes (e.g. couldn’t name newspapers).

How did Ralph Nader affect the 2000 election?

Won 97,000 Florida votes; Gore lost by just 537, helping George W. Bush.

What is the spending limit per UK constituency in general elections?

£30,000.

How much was donated to UK parties in the 2024 general election?

Over £15 million.

What campaigning tactic has the UK adopted from the US?

attack adds