Voting behaviour and the media

why is the idea that working class people vote labour and upper class people vote conservative wrong?

its a misconception

Thatcher won 3 general elections (1979, 1983 and 1987) with significant working class support.

in 2017 and 2019 the tories won several traditionally working class labour seats. the same elections, labour won seats that had been firmly conservative.

in terms of general elections, what must I do for the exam?

I must cover the 1997 general election. it is an exam board requirement.

Class-based voting and Class/partisan dealignment
what was the nature of elections just after ww2?

Between 1945 and 1966, general elections were decided by how successful labour/conservatives were at mobilising core support.

tories relied on A,B and C1 voters

Labour relied on C2, D and E voters.

Class-based voting and Class/partisan dealignment
when did this change? what did it show?

Class voting broke down in 1970 as Tory Leader Edward Heath won a suprise victory over harold wilson - showed issue voting had become more important than class.

Tories won a large number of white working class seats due to Enoch Powell’s “rivers of blood” 1968 anti immigration speech.

Class-based voting and Class/partisan dealignment
how have elections therefore changed since 1970?

Since 1970, general elections have been decided by the governments competence and key issues.

Class-based voting and Class/partisan dealignment

whats an example in terms of thatcher on how issue voting has become more preveleant than class voting?

Thatcher began her campaign in working class, labour stronghold Cardiff in 1979

-Campaign focused on inflation, purchase options for council houses and ending union power following the winter of discontent.

led to a 11% Tory swing for C2 Voters and 9% swing in DE voters.

Class-based voting and Class/partisan dealignment
how did Tony Blair gain support beyond class lines?

Blair’s new labour increased Labours vote share in all social categories.

Class-based voting and Class/partisan dealignment
how was boris johnson able to gain support beyond class lines?

The morning following the 2019 general election, Boris Johnson thanked Labour voters for voting conservatives, telling them:

“I will never take your support for granted”

Suggests that issue voting on Brexit was more important.

Region
traditionally, where do conservatives gain regional support?

Conservatives traditionally gain support in the south east, with high levels of home ownership and little unionism traditions.

-White rural araeas such as east anglia and south coast

South east voted 54% Tory in 2019.

Region
traditionally, where does labour get regional support?

labour dominates in ethnically diverse major cities with working class populations such as London

-Major centres of industrial production such as South Wales

Labour won a plurality of 48.1% of London in 2019.

Region
traditionallly, where do liberl democrats gain regional support?

Lib dems do disproportionatley badly due to FPTP

-Liberalism as an idea has support in areas such as South West and Far north of Scotland.

-Since 1950, Orkney and Shetland has always returned A liberal MP to westminster.

changes in region voting
how has london changed in terms of voting?

London has become increasingly a Labour stronghold - labour share of london increased by 9.25% between 2010 and 2019.

-its likely that the inclusive,pro europe nature of labour is popular in multicultral global cities.

changes in region voting
how have the conservatives gained support in industrial regions of england?

Conservatives have increased share of vote in areas with heavy industry and D and E voters.

-Euroscepticism has reinforced this.

In the north east, conservative support increased by 19.8% between 2010 and 2019.

changes in region voting
how has wales shown evidence of dealiagnment?

labour support has held up in wales
-tories have dramtically increased their vote by 14.7% in wales through euroscepticism.

changes in region voting
how is scotland moving away from labour?

Scotland is a traditionally labour stronghold (41/50 scottish seats in 2010)

however, it has declined since due to the growth of the SNP, with only 1 Labour MP in scotland in the 2019 general election.

-in 2024 however, labour was able to regain many seats in Scotland, contributing to its landslide.

Age
traditionally, how have the age groups voted?

Conservatives traditionally have strong support among older voters

-Labour and Liberals have traditonally won support of younger voters.

Age
why have conservatives maintained the older vote?

Tories have emphasised policies such as lower tax, strong defence and law and order.

-this appeals to older property owning voters. in 2019, conservatives won 57% of the home owner vote.

Age
why have labour maintained the youth vote?

Labour promotes issues such as social justice and enviroment.

in 2017 Corbyn connnected with young people via the slogan “for the many not the few”

Labour committed to abolishing tuition fees in 2019 and 2017.

Age
despite age voting, how have labour and conservatives been sucuessful in reaching beyond their core age group support?

In 1997 new Labour achieved a 5% lead over tories among 65+ aged voters.

-Thatcher in 1979 achieved a 1% over labour for 18-24 year olds.

Ethnicity
traditonally, what ethnicities vote labour?

Traditionally, Commonwealth immigrants have been in C2, D and E classesm and more likely to vote labour.

Labours connection to multicultralism and the race relations acts of 1965, 68 and 76 has consolidated this.

Ethnicity
traditionally, what ethnicities vote conservative?

Due to enoch powell’s 1968 Rivers of Blood speech, the conservatives have not been as popular as Labour too immigrant communities.

in the 2017 general election, the tories only won 5 of the 75 most ethnically diverse constituencies.

Ethnicity
how have conservatives attempted to appeal more to the ethnicities?

Johnson and Truss’s cabinet were the most ethnically diverse cabinet in history at their time.

-Rishi Sunak was appointed as the UK’s first British Asian PM in October 2022.

Ethnicity
despite this, how does labour still lead with minoritiy group votes?

in the 2024 general election, labour achieved 46% of the ethnic minority vote, whie the conservatives only won 17%

Education

traditonall, how does education effect voting?

Those with higher education qualifications comprimise the top social brackets and have traditionally voted conservative.,

Education

how did education based voting changed recently?

in 2017, the conservatives increased support among those will less educational qualifications, while labour increased their support among those with top degrees

-Labour won 48% of the degree or higher vote

conservatives won 52% of the no qualifications vote.,

Education

what has caused this change?

2019 general election results suggests a long term trend in which hte conservatives have alligned themselves with stricter migration policy, increasing support among white working class voters.

gender
what caused gender voting to change?

From 1945 to 1980 Labour’s had a association with male dominated trade unionism

-This, and Labour’s reputation for allowing inflation to spiral allowed the Conservatives to appeal to the housewives vote.

gender
how have conservatives tried to appeal to female voters?

Thatcher in 1979 articulated womens concerns that Labour governments have allowed inflation to undermine family finance.

gender
how have labour challenged conservative traditional lead among female voters?

labour’s focus on education, social care and the NHS has resonated with women more recently than Conservatives emphasis on euroscepticism and strong national defence,

Poltical conext
what key terminology is given to factors which influence the outcome of elections?

Valence factors such as governing competence and party leader

-Have become more important with the decline of class voting

Governing competence
how does governing competence effect voting?

If voters feel the government is effective and competent, they are likely to renew its mandate.

Alternativley, if voters feel a government cannot cope with current challenges, then they are likely to vote in a new government.

Governing competence
how did governing competence influence the 1979 general election?

-Inability of Labour PM James Callaghan to stop strikes during ‘winter of discontent’ in 1978

-Made worse when he reassured the country in the misquoted “crisis? what crisis?”

Governing competence
how did government competence influence the 2024 general election?

-Tory PM Rishi Sunak was seen as out of touch with the cost of living crisis.

-14 years of Tory dominance made it difficult for government to defend itself

Leadership
why is leadership imporant?

-The image that a party leader projects has become increasingly important since Macmillans victory in 1959

Leadership
how did leadership influence the 1983 general election?

in the 1983 General Election, Thatcher’s reputation for strong ‘common sense’ leadership contrasted with Michael Foot’s left wing intellectualism, which had little appeal beyond Labour’s core vote.

-Strong leadership during the 1982 Falklands war improved this.

Leadership
how did leadership influence the 2001 general election?

in 2001, Tony blair dominated politics through his charisma which contrasted the weak opposistion of william hague.

opposistion leader
how did the opposistion leader influence the 1997 general election?

In 1997, the energy of Tony Blair and his attractive self confidence was in huge contrast to John Major

opposistion leader
what does the 1979 general electin reveal about the role of opposition leaders?

in 1979, Thatcher was less popular than James Callaghan, however successfully focused on Labour’s inability to combat trade unionism.

-Shows how issue voting is more important than opposistion leader.

opposistion leader
how has weak opposistion influenced elections?

Neil Kinnock in the 1992 General election was confident of beating John Major.

-however, his trumphant presidentialism in his sheffield rally days before hte election damaged his reputation.

Major won a slim victory.

LIberal/Liberal democrat and minority party leadership
ho did the liberal democrats influence the result of the 1974 general election?

In The Febuary 1974 general election,, Jeremy Thrope, the liberal leader offered an exciting alternative to Edward Heath and Harold Wilson.

-They increased their share of the vote by 11.8%, and by holding the balance of power, was able to force hte resignation of edward heath as PM.

LIberal/Liberal democrat and minority party leadership
how did he liberals influence the 2010 generla election?

-the 2010 election was the first in which televised leaders dbeates were held.
-Nick Clegg’s engaging personality made him the clear wwinner , forcing both Cameron and Brown to admit that they “agree with nick”

-lib dems party political broadcasts focused on Clegg’s trustworthiness. 57 lib dem MP’s were elected, which formed the first coalition since 1945.

The campaign

how did the campaigin influnece the 1983 general election?

labours highly socialist 1983 manifesto appealed only to their core voters and failed to engage the middle class swing voters who wree beginning to benefit from the tax cuts of thathcer.

it was described as “the longest suciide note in history”

The campaign
how did the campaigin influnece the 2017 genera l election?

Corbyn campaigned across the nation, taking hte labour case directly to the people, which contrasted with theresa May’s lackluster campaign

-in 2019, Corbyn failed to replicate his campaign and was bested by accusations of anti semitism

-Johnson on the other hand, was able to campaign on a ‘get brexit done’ promise, and won an 80 seat majority.

The campaign
limitation on the influence of campaigns?

in 1987, Peter Mandelson epxertly organised Labour’s campaign, inclulding a TV campaign focusing on Neil Kinnock.

-Labour’s vote was only increased by 3.2% over Michael foots disasterous 1983 campaign. The key issuew as that thatcher was percieved as much stronger.

Manifesto
how did labours 1987 manifesto help the tories?

in 1987 The Labour manifesto did not commit to the UK’s nuclear deterrent, which enabled the tories to claim labour could not be trusted on defence

-Their Campaign poster boldly stated “LABOURS POLICY ON ARMS” next to an image of a surrendering soldier

Manifesto
how did the labour manifesto of 1992 help the tories?

in 1992, the labour manifesto commitment to increase public spending allowed the tories to claim that a labour government will cause a “Tax Bombshell” for all.

Issue/instrumental voting
what is ‘instrumental voting’?

instrumental voting sees voters vote on issues, such as immigration, cost of living of the enviroment.*

Issue/instrumental voting
how do parties respond to the importance of instrumental voting?

parties often establish ‘focus groups’ to respond to particular issues, the public feels most strongly about so they can tailor their manifesto accordingly.

Issue/instrumental voting
how did oinsrumental voting infleunce the 1983 general election?

in 1983, conservative warnings that a labour government under michael foot word reverse Thatcers ‘right to buy’ scheme encouraged the aspirational working class to vote conservatvie.

Issue/instrumental voting
how did instrumental voting influence the 2015 general election?

in 2015, immigration and euroscepticism were unexpected core issues for many voters. UKIPs vote increased from 3.1% in 2005 to 12.6%

Issue/instrumental voting
what is an example in which instrumental voting was not a large influence?

in the 1997 general election, labour enjoyed an 11% swing among AB voters even though they were most likely to be affected by labours proposed windfall tax on privataised properties.

Media and Impartiality in the UK
what body regulates media impartilaity in the uk?

Ofcom (office of communications) regulates telvision and radio broadcasts to ensure ‘due impartiality’. the bbc, itv, channel 4, SFC and Channel 5 are expected to provide a balanced approach to the news.

Media and Impartiality in the UK
whats an example of ofcom getting angry at the news for not being impartial ?

in 2019, RT, Kremlin backed broadcaster, was fined £200,000 by ofcom for its biased reporting of the war in syria and the salisbury poisinings.

RT’s broadcasting liscence was revoked by Ofcom in 2022 over their coverage of the russo-ukraine war.

Media and Impartiality in the UK
how has a new rightwing newschannel limited media impartiality in the uk?

in June 2021, Privately funded GB news launched with a clear right wing bias.

-the emergence of such channels have showed that UK voters are beginning to favour more partisan news sources.

Media and Impartiality in the UK
are newspapers regulated by Ofcom?

Newspapers have never been bound by “due impartiality” and have historically approached news from political perspectives.

-Controversial editors such as Piers Morgan have taken pride in their highly opinionated pieces.

Media and Impartiality in the UK
is social media regulated by ofcom ?

Social media is unregulated by Ofcom, and are not expected to fulfil impartiality.

-implications of internet bias and misinformation is becominig highly important as young people use social media as the main way of accessing news.

Print Journalism

as newspapers are not bound by ‘due impartiality’ what has been the bias of newspapers in the UK?

newspapers have traditionally supported the conservative party, through right wing tabloids such as The Sun and The Daily Mail ruthlessly attacking labour.

-The Guardian has a progressive bias, attracting liberal democrats.

-only Mirror Group newspapers have consistently supported labour.

Print Journalism

how have newspapers given political power to business tycoons?

Influence of newspapers for opinion forming have made them highly attractive to business tycoons such as Rupert Murdoch.

Do newspapers have political influence?
how has the decrease in sale of newspapers limited their influence?
-whats a counter?

The Sales of the Sun have dropped from almost 4 million in 1997 to just over 1 million in 2020.

-Daily Mirror has seen similar drops.

-However, free online newspaper sites attract a massive audience. Mail Online had over 150 million online visits in just december 2021.

Do newspapers have political influence?
how did newspaper influence the 1992 election?

in 1992, The Sun switched support to the victorious JOhn Major, declaring “its the sun wot won it”

-its notorious headline on the last day of the genreal election “if kinnock wins today, will the last person to leave britain please turn out the lights” consolidated public unease with kinnock following the disasterous sheffield rally.

Do newspapers have political influence?
how did newsppaers influence Tony Blairs premiership?

The Sun’s Deciision to abandon the conservatives in favour of new labour in 1997 provided blair with consistent posotive publciity.

-Media experts working for blair such as Alastair Campbell were effective at “spinning stories”

-questions over the legitimacy of the 2003 iraq invasion led to the erosion of blairs media support.

Do newspapers have political influence?
how can hostile press coverage exacerbate poltiical scandals?

In 2021, Health secretary Matt Hancock came under scrutiny by press coverage of him kissing his aide during lockdown.

-The Daily Mirror and The Guardians investigation of illegal lockdown parities at downing street provoked the resignation of Boris Johnson in 2022.

in 2024, Keir Starmers post election popularity slumped as newspapers covered the extensive amount of ‘freebies’ he received upon entering downign street.

Broadcast media
how has the rise of foreign/privatley funded news channels limited the impartilaity of broadcast media?

GB news openly markets itself as right wing as it is privatley funded.

foreign Russian Today news had its liscence revoked in 2022 as Ofcom investigated 29 seperate ellegations concering its ocverage of the war in ukraine.

Broadcast media
how do governments and political leaders protect themselves from broadcast media?

alastair campbell, former daily mail editor played a vital role in constructing tony blairs new labour public image.

in 2022, boris johnson appointed veteran journalist and broadcaster guto harri as director of communications as an emergency attempt to restore his media reputation.

Broadcast media
what are examples of poltiical leaders, whose poor relationsship with broadcast media cost them?

Labour leaders MIchael Foot, Neil Kinnock and Ed Milliband have had a difficult relationship with television, perhaps explaining their inability to win general elections.

Broadcast media
how did broadcast media influenc the 1974 general election?

in the feburary 1974 general election, the suave media savvy liberal leader jeremy thorpe had a much more attractive TV image than either edward heath or harold wilson. the liberal vote increaed by 11.8%.

Broadcast media
how can broadcast media harm poltiical leaders?

Tony Blairs authority and tv image was completley destroyed by tv footage of bloodshed in iraq.

in 2022, boris johnsons positive, likeable media image was crushed by accusations that downing street had disobeyed covid restrictions.

Social Media
how is social media becoming more influential?
-what is the difference between social media and older forms of media?

young voters are increasingly receiving news stories and political opinion via instagram, twitter and tiktok.

-algorithms register viewers opinions and connect them to similar posts, creating echo chambers. this can lead to a more partisan public.

Social Media
how have memes influenced voters?

the spreading of memes to mock or porytray certain poltiical ideas or figures has allowed voters to be more easily swayed with misinfromation.

Social Media
how has social media helped the right?

right wing GB news has become increasingly dominant on social media.

nigel farage has made extensive use of tiktok to spread reform UK ideas, outpeforming all other UK poltiical leaders in that sector.

Social Media
how did social media help boris johnson?

in the 2019 general election,, ‘get brexit done’ was a simple and arresting message that spread quickly on social media, to the advantage of the conservative party.

following russias invasino of ukraine in feburary 2022, brois jonhosns statement condemning russian agressino was posted across social media, making governemnt posistions clear.

Social Media
how did social media inlfuence the 2024 general election?

Reform UK and nigel farage made extensive use of tiktok in the 2024 general election, outpeforming all other parties and UK poltiical eaders in that sector. this helped spread the populist policies of farage.

reform UK continued to win an unprecedented 14.3% of the 2024 vote.

Opinion polls
what is the effect of opinion polls?

determine publics attitude on a specific issue

-determine how public intend to vote on referendums/election

-parties can commission polls themselves to determine public opinon on issues to develop policy

-exit polls are released at 10pm on election day when polling closes.

arguments that opinion polls are beneficial to UK politics
why are opinion polls beneifician in terms of demonstating changing attitudes of uk voters?

-Opinion polls demonstraate changing attitudes on important issues, which can ensure politcal parties are informed and representatitve.

-following Russias invasino of Ukraine in 2022, a yougov Poll highlighting the % of people who view russia as a threat jumped from 34% in september 2021 to 64% in march 2022.

arguments that opinion polls are beneficial to UK politics
how can opinion polls generate enthusiasm?

can increase turnout if a race is tight.

In 1992, opinion polls suggested a hung parliament, consequently, turnout was very high (77.74%)

in the 2014 scottish independence referendum, opinion polls suggested a tight race, this encouraged a high turnout of 84.6%

arguments that opinion polls are beneficial to UK politics
how have opinion polls allowed parties to be more representative?

a yougov poll in september 2022 put labour 33% ahead of conservatives. this promoted tory mps to outst liz truss.

-demosntrates democracy.

arguments that opinion polls are not beneficial to UK poltitics
why can opinion polls create worse policy?

politicans focus too much on policies which may generate short term support rather than long term goals.

-in 2023, the tory Rwanda Deportation plan for immigrants seen as highly controversial and flawed, perhaps to gain short term voter support.

arguments that opinion polls are not beneficial to UK poltitics
why can opinino polls lead to low turnout?

if opinion polls show one side far ahead, it can discourage voter turnout

in the 2024 general election, labour was consistently polled to win a landslide majoirty agains the incumbet tory government. as a result, turnout decreased by 7.5% from 2019 to 60% in 2024.