International Relations Exam 2

What are the three approaches to explaining foreign policy decisions

• Bureaucratic and domestic politics approach

• Dictators dilemma at the intersection of politics and bureaucracy

• Psychological approach

Domestic politics approach to explaining foreign policy decisions

• international political actors, institutions and societal pressure influence foreign policy choices

Examples:

• intrest groups and lobbyist

  • Flordia is a key swing state —> lots of cubans—> voters have huge influence on presidental canidates stances towards cuba

• Public opinion and media

  • U.S invades afganistan → the people wanted it but then it pulled out because the U.S citizen thought it was a failure

Bureaucratic politics emphasizes

• the role and influence of government bureaucracies and their officials

• that states are not monothlic, singlar rational actors

• that foreign policy results from complex international bargaining

Dictators dilemma - prevent beauracy from becoming a threat

• appoint loyalists and support yes men

• limit info across orginizations

dictators dilemma- ensure good advice and capacity

• Bureaucrats can speak truthfully

• appoint chosen for competence

• information sharing occurs

Why is the security dilemma particularly pronounced for dictators?

• dictators biggest threat is generally a military coup, which often requires coordination across bureaucratic elites

• Thus dictators try to prevent coordinations and independence in the military and civilian bureaucracy

Dictators dilemma: How to prevent coordination and independence + Results

• appoint loyalist and rewards supporters

• punish opponents or remove influential individual

• silo and fragments organizations and concentrate decision making

Results":

• sycophants who provide false or overly optimist reports to avoid punishments

• Reduced competence

• No cross organizational oversight or fact checking

What are cognitive biases?

• cognitive biases are systemic errors in thinking that occur when we take in and process information from our environment

• they influence our perception, judgment and decision making by affecting how we interpret and prioritize information

Optimistic Bias

• a belief that one is stronger, smarter, more skilled than average

Illusion of control

• a belief that one has more control over the outcome of a situation that one really does

Confirmation Bias

• a tendency to only hear or pay attention to information and facts that confirm what one already believes

Fundamental attribution error

• Tendency to see others actions as a sresult of their personality or mailice rather than the result of the context and constarants they face

• tendency to see your own actions as the result of contect and constraints not personality or malice and to think others see your actions the same way

Availability Heuristic

• tendency to interpret event through the lens of recent or dramatic effects (what comes easily to mind) even if the two are not similar or the latter is not relevant

Loss aversion (prospect theory)

• tendency to experience losses as particularly painful and to discount potential gains relative to losses

• strong aversion to losses and a willingness to gamble to a possible loss to avoid a sure loss

Sunk cost fallacy

• A belief that once one has invested time, money energy and resources in something the best course of action is to continue with it when it is generating more losses than benefits

Predecessors of the United Nations

• concert of europe

• public international unions

• hauge conferences

• league of nations

Basic Principles of the UN

• Sovereign equality

  • but inequality also- veto power to the P-5

• nonintervention in states domestic affairs

States agree to:

• Refrain from threatening or using force against the territorial or political independence of any state

• settle disputes by peaceful means

• support UN enforment actions

• fulfil obligations under the charter, including paying assesed contributions, complying with sanctions and providing funding, equipment or troops for peacekeeping

The UN’s Main organs

• general assembly

• security council

• economic and social council

• trusteeship council (to 1994)

• international court of justice

• secretariat

General Assembly

• composed of all 193 member states (one vote each)

Powers:

• budget

• make nonbinding recommendations

• united for peace resolution

• makes norms

• forum for treaty making

politics:

• organized by regional blocs

• larger states vs smaller states → strong divide

• global north concerns vs global south concerns

Security Council

5 permeant member with Veto power and 10 rotating (regional representation) groups

Powers:

• approve adminsions of new member states

• authorize and oversee peacekeeping operations

• authorize and oversee sanctions

• mandate investigations

• refer cases to the international crimminal court

• amendment of the UN chater

Charter Chapter VI

The peaceful charter:

• focuses on resolving disputes peacefully before they escalate into conflicts

• Recommendations under Chapter VI are not legally binding. the security council offers guidance, but states are not obligated to follow it

Charter Chapter VII

• focuses on action with respect to threats of the peace, branches of the peace and acts of regression

• grants the security council the authority to determine when such a create exists and take actions

• Article 41: permits the imposition of non-military measures, such as economic sanctions, arms embargoes, and travel bans

Binding resolutions:

• Unlike the gernal assembly, decisons made under chapter VII are legally binding fro all member states

Veto power:

• the five permeant members (P5) can block resolutions even if they concern chapter VII

The secretariat

• 41,000 staff

• neutral professionals at most levels but political pressures determine top level positions

• the beauratcy that keeps everything running

• Un develpoment, running peacekeeping, help with climate change conventions, invesigate issues, reaserch arm, run meetings

UN security general as chief administrative officer

• overseases the UN secretariat

• manages the annual budget

• report to the general assembly on the implementation of UN programs and policies

• responsible for the performance and accountability of thousand of international civil servants

UN Security general as diplomat?

• Represent UN on world stage

• mediates conflicts

• advocates for human rights

• conducts quite diplomacy to resolve international disputes behind the scenes

UN Charter and peacekeeping

• peacekeeping is not specifically named in the UN charter

• however Chapter VI allows for pacific dispute settlement

• and Chapter VII allows for enforcement measures including force

Why do states send their military and police to be peacekeepers?

• smaller countries send their military for status with the U.N, salary, military experience and close proximity (to the war → concern for the outcome)

Types of UN involvement

• peacekeeping (VI) and peace enforcement (VII)

UN involvement: Peacekeeping (Chapter VI)

• based on consent

• created after peace agreement or cease fire

• serve as impartial observer

• use minimal force

Types:

• observer missions

• ceasefire / buffer

• post conflict state-building or administration

UN involvement: Peace enforcement (Chapter VII)

• does not require consent of all parties to dispute

• does not require peace agreement in place

• charged with protecting civilans and UN personal

• Authorized to use often “any means necessary”

Examples:

• stabilization mission in Mali

• Stabilization mission in the DR congo

Is all peacekeeping done by UN forces?

• the UN can authorize regional bodies to oversee peacekeeping operations

• It can also authorize specific countries to lead multinational peacekeeping missions

Where are UN peacekeepers sent?

• peacekeepers are deployed where there is no clear winner in the war

• in areas where formal peace agreements are often not in place

• UN peacekeepers are more likely to be sent to countries with military weak states

• Peacekeepers go where they are most needed rather than where peace is easy to keep

Why does the UN peacekeeping face criticism?

• Many peace enfomencent missions continue with little progress towards peace

• missions may fail to protect civilans and instances of sexual violence are common

• stealing

What is international Law?

• International law is a set of rules and principles governing the relations and conduct of sovereign states with each other as well as with international organizations and individuals

The law of the sea

• Establishes zones of jurisdiction

• Territorial sea: 12 nautical miles over which the coastal state exercises sovereignty, including the airspace above the seabed below, while allowing for innocent passage of foreign ships

• Exclusive economic zone: 200 nautical mile area from a a coastal state where that state has sovereign rights to explore, exploit, conserve and manage natural resources

• High sea: Seas beyond any country’s jurisdiction

Protects global navagation: right of innocent passage and right of transit passage

no enforcement body

What are the sources of international law?

Formally legally binding agreements

• treaties, conventions, protocols

Customary international law: Requires both state practice, which is the consistent and general actions of state and opino juris, which is the belief that these actions are legally binding

Court rulings and jurists writings

Principles of law “ of civilized nations”

Who arbitrates international law?

• international courts

  • international courts of justice

  • international criminal court

  • permanent court of arbitration

  • dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO

• Regional courts

• Domestic courts

Permanent Court of Arbitration

• Members of the court are appointed for a term of six years and their appointments can be renewed

• each contracting part is entitled to nominate four persons to accept the duties of arbitrators as members of the court.

US domestic courts and international law

• International treaties are superior to domestic law

• once treaties are enacted they override domestic laws that contradict their provisions and cannot be changed by subsequent legislation

Two controversial types of drone strikes

Signature strike: A drone strike where the identity of the person/ persons targeted is not known but their pattern of life behavior indicates they are involved in terrorist activity

Double-tap strike: The practice of following a strike with a second strike several minutes later, which can hit emergency reponders and medical personal rushing to the site

Why has the united states deployed drones?

• can operate where there is a lack of on the ground military presence

• can provide support where there is an on the ground military presence

• provides a lower number of civilan casualties than traditional military engagement

• less public opposition in the US

• cheaper than traditional military engagement

Three levels of variation in international law

1. obligation: Degree to which agents are leally bound by international law

2. Precision: Degree to which international legal obligations are fully specified

3. Delegation: Degree to which courts, arbitrators, mediators or others are given the authority to implement, interpret and apply rules and to resolve disputes or make additional rules

Jus in bello/ humanitarian law general principles of law

• what can and can you not do in international law

• Discrimination or distinction: Only military targets are permissible in conflict; civilian targets are not permitted. however, warning parties detrmine which constitutes each one'

• Proportionality: Collateral damage will occur in war even if civilians are not targeted. Therefore, militaries must weigh the advantage of attacking a particular target compared to the harm that it will do to civilans

• Principle of Precaution: Military commanders must take precautions to limit the amount of civilian damage while pursuing targets.

International Humanitarian law sources

• the Geneva conventions (four conventions)

• Hague conventions

  • Prohibition of restriction of certain tactics

  • establish rules of how an occupying force must treat the civilian populations and property

  • rome statue

what is the difference between Jus ad belum/ jus contra bellum and jus in bello/ Humanitarian law

Jus ad bellum/Jus contra bellum: When you can go to war, the why of war

Jus in Bello: The how of war. Rules and principles to minimize suffering and protect civilians and societies

International Court of Justice

• Based on UN charter

• Cases between states

• Broad range of disputes

• All UN members but by consent

International Criminal Court (ICC)

• Rome statute

• Cases against individuals

• Four categories of crimes: Genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, crime of aggression

• Crimes committed by citizens of state parties or crimes committed in states that have ratified

Geneva Conventions and protocols

establish legal standards for the humanitarian treatment of victims of war, including prisoners of war, civilians, and wounded or sick military personnel.

• cover armed forces

• armed forces at sea

• POWS

• Civilians

• Enhanced protection for civilians in international conflicts

• non-international conflicts

What are the two main sources of international humanitarian law

• Geneva conventions and rome statue

Rome statute

the treaty that established the International Criminal Court (ICC), granting it jurisdiction over genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression

Kyoto Protocol

• developed states

• legally binding emissions from some state parties but not others

• no major global reduction in emissions

Paris climate agreement

• all state parties

• legally binding reporting but no binding reductions

• reduced emissions from some state parties but not others

• no major global reduction in emissions

• NDCs never set to keep warming below 1.5 or even 2 degrees

UNFCCC (United Nations Framework convention on climate change) and the COP meetings

• first agreement of climate change

• non binding agreements

• framework = not really a solution

COP: Convention of the parties

• Adopts new agreements, resolutions or actions via consensus

• Annual meetings of the U.N to help combat climate change

What are the benefits from a liberal theory perspective of having the UNFCCC and the COP meetings?

• requiring meetings build trust, encourages cooperation due to repeated interactions and reduces transaction costs.

ARGUMENT: What states should most aggressively reduce emissions?

• those who historically contributed the most GHGs

• Those who currently contribute the most GHGs

ARGUMENT: When should states reduce GHG emissions

• while industrializing or economically developing?

• after achieving a certain level of economic development or industrialization?

What should determine how much states reduce GHG emissions?

• a legally binding international agreement among states

• a voluntary international agreement and national governments

Barret Argument

• collective action problem: All are responsible and no one is responsible

• Prisoner’s dilemma: each country is better off when all countries reduce their emissions substantially. but each country has only a small incentive to reduce its own emissions

• If there was a clear red line we could divide up limits by country to stay in a safe zone, and every country would have an incentive to comply

• There is no clear red line with climate change so countries feel like they can free ride without knowing for certain that there will be a catastrophe

• mitigation is costly

Montreal protocol

• almost all states participated (minimum participation clause)

• its limited in scope (adresses each problem one at a time)

• It contains clear punishment (a trade ban) that makes the benefits of participating higher than the potienal benefits of free riding

Alkin and Mildenberger

• many states are unconditional cooperators as are many publics.

• other states are unconditional non- cooperators. they pull out of agreements or refuse to join them regardless of what other states are doing

• It depends on domestic poltical ideologies

• balance of power between parties in office

Tragedy of the commons - Climate change as a collective action problem

• collective and non-excludable goods will be overused as everyone seeks short term gain over long term well-being of the commons

• the atmosphere is sjared and it is impossible to exclude somone from its benefits een if they overuse it

• states have an incentive to free ride

Describe how excessive optimism bias, illusion of control, and availability heuristics help explain Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022

Illusion of control: Russia thought they could control the situation in Ukraine and thought they could win the war

Optimism Bias: Saw themselves as strong and thought they could win the war

Heuristics: They remembered the invasion of crema and thought they could also win the invasion of Ukraine

Describe how loss aversion and sunk cost fallacy help explain why the war continues and there have been no serious peace negotiations.

Sunk cost: spent so much into this war and dont want it to be a waste

Loss aversion:

• Russia: gained territory that they dont want to lose

• Ukraine: doesnt want to lose its land

Concert of Europe - influence on U.N

• the idea of veto power

League of nations

• collective security: an attack on one is an attack on all

Traditional peacekeeping vs state building

Traditional peacekeeping: Only there to observe, maintain ceasefire, very minimally armed

State building: Rebuild country after conflict. → to rebuild state functions and institutions in post-conflict

Case study of east timor

The three missions:

• UNAMET (UN advance mission in east timor)→ peacekeeping (help supervise a fair voting process)

• INTERFET (International force for east temor)→ peace enforcement (Indonesian backed militia -used weapons to restore peace)

• UNTAET → (UN transitional administration in timor-leste)State building peacekeeping ( help build a country that can govern themselves as an independent and democratic nation)

Based on the arrest warrant justification by Prosecutor Khan, what are two specific war crimes that Hamas leaders are accused of and two specific war crimes that Israel's leaders are accused of?

Hamas Leaders:

• taking hostages as a war crime, tourture as a crime against humanity, Murder as a crime against humanity

Isreal Leaders:

• Starvation of civilians, Intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population, wilful killing or murder as a war crime

Gaza case study- How did the ICC prosecutor collect evidence?

• Interviews, authenticated photos and vidoes, statments from perpetrater groups, medical records, eye wittness reports,

On what basis does the ICC claim jurisdiction over the actions of

Israeli leaders?

• Palestine is a member of the UN and thus the ICC can investigate hamas and since isreal committed crimes in palistine they have jurisdiction to charge them as well