Civil war & Terrorism

Human rights as universal obligations

Howard & Donnelly

-              Human rights belong to individuals simply because they are human

-              Civil wars violate these human rights

-              Internation enforcement is difficult as the international system has no world government

Universalism vs. Cultural Relativism: Debate over whether rights apply equally across cultures

Sovereignty as responsibility

Kofi Annan

• UN Charter protects sovereignty, but not when it blocks action needed to preserve peace

Humanitarian intervention

Western & Goldstein

• -              Despite early failures, the world has imporved at conducting humanitarian interventions

  -              Interventions must have transition strategies, not just “exit strategies.”

  -              Effective operations blend military action with political reconciliation, institution-building, and economic reconstruction.

  -              Interventions can save lives but must plan for postconflict governance

Regime change

Downes

= removal of government by external force

Using military regimes rarely produce stable democracies

Regime change is more harmful than helpful

Power sharing

Hartzell & Hoddie

= Institutional arrangements that distribute political, military, and economic power among former rivals

-              Negotiated settlements that include power-sharing or power-dividing institutions make peace more durable

-              Long, low-casualty civil wars are more likely to end in power-sharing agreements.

-              The presence or promise of peacekeepers increases the likelihood of reaching such agreements.

-              Power-sharing builds security and trust between former enemies, but it is also complex and can freeze rivalries into political structures.

Transnational Advocacy Networks (TAN)

Keck & Sikkink

= voluntary networks of NGOs, activists, movements etc

-              They share values, exchange information and circulate personnel

-              Grown due to globalization, rise of global civil society

-              Especially powerful on human rights, environmental issues

-              TAN influence global politics through 4 tacitcs

o   Information politics – rapidly generating credible information.

o   Symbolic politics – using impactful symbols or stories.

o   Leverage politics – calling upon powerful allies to pressure governments.

Accountability politics – holding states to their publicly stated commitments

The boomerang pattern

When activists are blocked by their own government, turn outward – support from international allies who then pressure the government from the outside

Cyber conflict & attribution problem

Herbert Lin

• Cyber conflict is undermining state authority

• Allows states to interfere in rivals political/military system & small groups/individuals to challenge state control

• Cyber capabilities introduce ambiguity, as attacks can be covert, anonymous, and difficult to attribute.

• Attribution Problem: Difficulty of identifying the attacker in cyberspace.

International law and global norms

Steven Ratner

• International law is expanding into areas once considered purely domestic

• Key developments

  • New forms of soft law supplement traditional treaties.

  • More actors—NGOs, corporations, international organizations—shape legal norms.

  • Growing challenges include failed states and technological change.

• International politics is becoming more regulated, but enforcement remains inconsistent.

• Compliance without Enforcement: Obedience driven by legitimacy rather than force

Civil war

• Armed conflict within a state – key element

• Target is the state

• Government vs an organized non-state group

• Defined by amount of deaths: 1000

• Mobilization + organizational structure behind

Terrorism

• Strategic violence targeting civilians

• Non-state political purpose

• Coercion through fear

• Target is civilians

• Symbolic effects of their act

Non-state violence

• Insurgents, militias, extremists, criminal groups

• Increasingly hybrid actors

• Different kind. Of strategies depending on what you want to reach

Why civil war happens: 4 frameworks

• Grievances

• Opportunities

• state capacity

• international factors

Grievances

o   Inequality, repression, exclusion

o   Arise when groups experience systematic exclusion

o   Ethnic marginalization

o   Grievences as a motivation to push back

o   Organization, structure, resources – how to mobilize

o   What the countering group desnt’t have or what your group have

Opportunities

o   Terrain, resources, absence of a state-> rebellion becomes feasible

o   New natural resources for state to become rich -> opportunity for other groups to become rich

o   Access to weapons (easier with a state that is already in civil war – many weapons in circulation)

o   Having the means to strive towards the goal

State capacity

o   Strong states deter rebellion – less likely to have rebellion compared to weaker states

o   Weak states create permissive conditions

o   Institutions that are seen as legitimate

o   Civil war in a state that cant control what is happening

International factors

o   Involvement of any other international actors

o   Engage and further push for this afterwards

International dimensions of civil war

-              Refugee flows and spillovers

-              Diaspora financing

-              Foreign sponsorship & proxy warfare

-              Multi-causality: motivations × capability × permissive conditions

Logic of terrorism as strategic, organisational and symbolic

• Terrorism as rational, instrumental choice, strategic

• Gain power by targeting civilians

• Used when groups cannot win militarily

• Adopted by organizations who don’t have the military means to confront the state military

• Aimed at coercing governments or influencing publics

• Violence as communication

• Outbidding among rival groups

• Maintaining cohesion, attracting recruits

• Symbolic violence: multiple audiences

• Terrorist groups view terrorism as a plan b to civil war

Strategic: achieves political goals through fear and coercion

Organizational: enables sustained violence through structured networks

Symbolic: communicates meaning, identity and power

Civil war as enabler for terrorism

• Civil war can create conditions for terrorism -> challenging state authority -> other groups can try to start a civil war

• State fragmentation → space for armed groups

• Ungoverned spaces: recruitment, training, logistics

• Reduced costs of attack

• Multi-group competition drives escalation

Terrorism transform civil war

• Targeting civilians increases polarisation

• Spoiling peace processes

• Attracting or provoking external intervention

• Rise of hybrid actors (Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah)

• Mutual reinforcement: civil wars ↔ terrorism

Counterterrorism challenges

• Send military to try to prevent terrorism or counter it

• Heavy-handed approaches: risks of backlash

• Importance of proportionality and legitimacy

• Combined approach: intelligence + policing + political strategy

• Terrorism is political, not only a security issue