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Hindsight Bias
After learning the outcome of an event, many people
believe they could have predicted that very outcome.
Overconfidence
Sometimes we think we know
more than we actually know.
The scientific attitude
composed of skepticism, curiosity, and humility
curiosity
passion for exploration
skepticism
doubting and questioning
humility
ability to accept responsibility when wrong
critical thinking does not
accept arguments and conclusions blindly
critical thinking examines
assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence and assesses conclusions
How Do Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions?
The Scientific Method
Description
Correlation
Experimentation
theory
an explanation that integrates principles and organizes and predicts behavior or events
hypothesis
testable prediction, often prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept, reject or revise the theory.
Research
administer tests / observe
case study
A technique in which one person is studied in depth to
reveal underlying behavioral principles.
survey
A technique for ascertaining the self-reported
attitudes, opinions or behaviors of people usually
done by questioning a representative, random sample
of people.
Wording Effects
Wording can change the results of a survey
Random Sampling
If each member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion into a sample, it is called a random sample (unbiased). If the survey sample is biased, its results are not valid.
Naturalistic Observation
Observing and recording the behavior of animals in the wild and recording self-seating patterns in a multiracial school lunch room constitute naturalistic observation.
Correlation
When one trait or behavior accompanies another, we say the two correlate.
Correlation Coefficient
is a statistical measure of the relationship between two variables.
scatterplot
is a graph comprised of points that are
generated by values of two variables. The slope of the
points depicts the direction, while the amount of scatter
depicts the strength of the relationship.
Illusory Correlation
The perception of a relationship where no relationship actually exists. Parents conceive children after adoption.
Order in Random Event
Given random data, we look for order and meaningful
patterns.
Given large numbers of random outcomes,
a few are
likely to express order.
Experimentation
Exploring Cause and Effect
Double-blind Procedure
In evaluating drug therapies, patients and
experimenter’s assistants should remain unaware of
which patients had the real treatment and which
patients had the placebo treatment
Random Assignment
Assigning participants to experimental (breast-fed)
and control (formula-fed) conditions by random
assignment minimizes pre-existing differences
between the two groups
Independent Variable
a factor manipulated by the
experimenter. The effect of the independent variable is
the focus of the study.
Dependent Variable
factor that may change in
response to an independent variable.
Mode
The most frequently occurring score in a
distribution.
Mean
The arithmetic average of scores in a
distribution obtained by adding the scores and
then dividing by the number of scores that
were added together
Median
The middle score in a rank-ordered
distribution
Range
The difference between the highest and
lowest scores in a distribution
Standard Deviation
A computed measure of how
much scores vary around the mean
Normal Curve
A symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that
describes the distribution of many types of data
(normal distribution). Most scores fall near the
mean.
Illusory Correlation:
the perception of a relationship
where no relationship actually exists
Regression Toward the Mean
the tendency for extremes
of unusual scores or events to regress toward the average
Making Inferences
A statistical statement of how frequently an obtained
result occurred by experimental manipulation or by
chance