Intelligence Analysis Review

Flashcards for reviewing key concepts in intelligence analysis, including biases, heuristics, and methods for improving analysis.

Key Features of Intelligence Environment

Ambiguous/conflicting information, deception, incomplete information, overload of information.

Strategic Surprise (e.g., Pearl Harbor)

When key data is not communicated to top officials or data is inconsistent with preconceptions, so it is dismissed.

Intelligence Failures during Wartime (Operational vs. Non-Operational)

Army tends to be more optimistic, while operational agencies are more pessimistic.

Assume the Worst (Suggested Solution)

Assume the worst to be prepared, but it can lead to crying wolf, high expenses, and security dilemmas.

Multiple Advocacy

Avoid groupthink and bring multiple perspectives, but can lead to polythink and paralysis.

Devil's Advocate

Brings an opposing perspective, but can be dismissed after some time.

Centralized Intelligence

Allows for accumulation and information sharing, but a security breach can be detrimental.

"Change the system, not the analyst"

Aim for a mix of personality types among analysts.

Vividness Criteria

Information that is concrete/personally experienced carries more weight.

Persistence of Impressions Based on Discredited Evidence

Even after evidence is flawed, individuals stick with initial judgments.

Best Guess Strategy in Processing Evidence

Analysts make a yes or no decision, leading to total acceptance or total rejection.

Oversensitivity to Consistency

Consistent data is given more weight, especially when little information is available.

Absence of Evidence

Adjust judgments accordingly when information is missing; "out of sight, out of mind."

Bias in Favor of Causal Relationships

The desire to assign a cause behind even randomly occurring events.

Bias Favoring Perception of Centralized Direction

The perception that actions of others are intentional and the result of centralized planning.

Bias Towards the Similarity of Cause + Effect

The belief that causes and effects will be similar in type.

Illusion Correlation

Creating a relationship that does not exist, even if X and Y move together.

Heuristics

Cognitive shortcuts

ACH Method (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses)

An 8-step procedure for analyzing competing hypotheses.

Tools for Improving Analysis

Tools for improving analysis, including sensitivity analysis, peer review, thinking backwards, crystal ball, and role playing.

Parker and Stern: Categories of Intelligence Failures

Organizational, political, cognitive, environmental/contextual.

Keller and Yang, Fog of War Lessons

Empathize with the enemy; rationality alone is not enough.

Vietnam Fog of War Lessons

Belief and seeing are both often wrong; be prepared to reexamine reasoning.