IB ESS Topic 8

Demographics

the study of the dynamics of population change

Exponential curve-

when populations follow an accelerating rate of growth which is proportional to the population size

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

number of births per thousand individuals in a population per year

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

number of deaths per thousand individuals in a population per year

calculate CDR and CBR

dividing the amount of deaths or births by the population, and then multiplying it by 1000.

Natural Increase Rate (NIR)

rate of human growth expressed as a percentage change per year.

calculate NIR

CDR-CBR, then divide it by 10.

Doubling Time (DT)-

the time it take for a human population to double

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)-

average amount of children each woman has over a lifetime.

3 Estimates on Human Population Growth Over Time

High Variant- assumes that CDR will continue to fall rapidly but that the CBR will continue to fall slowly

Medium Variant- middle ground and straight forward projection of the curve

Low Variant- assumes we will not find a cure to AIDS or any of the other big killers and that CBR will fall.

Factors That Affect Population Size

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Immigration

Emigration

Fertility Rates-

number of births per thousand women of childbearing age.

Fertility Rate + 2.0)

higher pop

fertility rate -(2.0)

lower pop

Differences between Birth Rate and Fertility

Birth Rate expressed in percentage forms, births per thousand of total population (male, female, child, old)

Fertility represents only women

Human Development Index (HDI)-

measurement of "well-being" for a country.

(wealth, life expectancy, gross domestic product, education)

Factors that drive MEDC's

North Americas, Europe, Japan, Israel,

Industrialized nations w/ high GDP

Population is relatively rich

Individuals are unlikely to starve

Relatively high level of resources

being used

Low population growth rates largely to do with CDR and CBR

Very high ecological footprints and carbon footprints

Factors that drive LEDC's

Sub Saharan Africa, large areas in Asia, South America

Less or non industrialized at all

May have raw materials but tend to be exported into MEDC's

Populations has low GDP and right poverty rates

More people are poor with low living standards

High population rates due to rapidly falling CDR

Low ecological and carbon footprints

The Term (1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th World)

Respectively used to refer to...

Technologically advanced democracies

Communist States within the soviet Bloc

Economically underdeveloped countries

Stateless nations

Factors that drive a NIC (newly industrialized country)

Increased industrial development and increased GDP

Massive foreign investment

Population migration to cities providing workforce

Free trade and increased civil rights

Countries Considered to be a NIC

China, India, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, Brazil

Underminers of Human Population Growth Effect on the Environment

More people require more resources

More people produce more waste

People demand increased living standards

The more people there are, the greater the impact is

Demography-

statistical study of which includes human population, total size, age and sex composition, change over time w/ variation in births and death rates.

Factors That Affect Our Resources And Impact on The Environment

Size of the population

Wealth of the population

Resource needs and desires

Malthusian Theory

Expressed views on the danger of overpopulation and claimed that food supply was the main limit to overpopulation

-explains the human population grow geometrically (2, 4, 8, 16, 32)

Explained food supply only grew arithmetically (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12)- was limited by the lack of land

"Laws of Nature," dictated that a human population can never grow over the food supply

Factors That Lead To An Increase In Food Production

Productivity capacity of the land

Existing levels of technology

Factors Leading To Food Declination

Over cultivation

Soil Erosion

Limitations of the Malthusian Theory

Too simplistic

Ignores the reality that only the poor go hungry

Technology can feed the whole globe

Lack of consideration for globalization

Boserup's Theory

Asserts that population increase would result in a stimulation of technological increase which would later stimulate food productions

Also suggest that any increase in population will result in an increase for food production, thus demanding that that agrarian technology will need to change

As population increased so does the demand on technologies

Limitations of Boserup's Theory

Based on assumption of closed community

Closed in communities aren't possible because of constant immigration

Overpopulation may also lead to unhealthy land practices of crop cultivation

Population increase does not always lead to technology increase

Factors That Lead To Large Families

High Infant and Childhood mortality (more chance of a child reaching adulthood)

Security in old age (more of a chance of the parent being cared for be the child)

Children are an economic asset (more kids able to be worked out in the fields)

Status of women (typically considered as being subordinate to men, meaning they are the primary workforce that help manage agricultural)

Ways of reducing family size

Providing education

Improving health

Family counselling

Enhanced income

Improved resource management

Demographic transition model (DTM)-

pattern of decline in the regards of fertility and mortality due to social and economic developments

The 5 Stages of DTM

High Stationary (Pre Industrial Society)- High births due to no birth control, high infant mortality rates, cultural factors of encouraging large families. High death rates due to disease, famine, poor hygiene and little medicine.

Early Expanding (LDCs)- Death rates drops as a result in increase of sanitation, and improvements in food sources. Diseases are decreasing. Birth rates are still high, though child mortality drops due to improved medicines.

Late Expanding (Wealthier LDCs)- Nations becoming wealthier cause a decrease in birth rates because of their accessibility in things like healthcare, education, and emancipation for women. Population levels begins to level and more desire for good materials and less infant death rate indicate that they are more families of smaller size

Low Stationary (MEDC's)- Low birth rates and death rate, industrialized nations, and stale population sizes.

Declining (MEDC's)- Population may not be replaced as fertility rate is low. Problems arise within an ageing workforce

Population Pyramids Stage 1 Expanding

high birth rates, rapid fall in upward age group due to high death rates, short life expectancy

Stage 2 (Expanding)

High birth rates, fall in death rate as more living to middle age; slightly longer life expectancy

Stage 3 (Stationary)-

Declining birth rate; low death rate; more people living to old age

Stage 4 (Contracting)-

low birth rates; low death rate, higher dependency ratio; longer life expectancy.

Limitations With Population Pyramids

This model set doesn't feature a 5 pyramid to it. It does not feature population declination.

The fall in death rate is over exaggerated

AIDS and other disease would have effect on thiS (this is ignored in these models)

It is assuming contraception. It is assuming the obtention of education. This is always not the case

Factors That Lead To Decreased Population Growth

Governmental pension schemes

More and high taxes

Economic stimulation that lead to increased accessibility of education or health care

Urbanization

Educative and economic policies aimed directly at women

Factors Leading To Increased Population Growth

Agricultural development, increased sanitation facilities, and public health sectors

Lowing taxes, increased health care and free education

Immigration movements

Natural Income

rate of replacement of a particular or natural capital

Renewable Natural Capital

resources able to be replaced as fast as it is being used

Nonrenewable Natural Capital-

resources only replaceable by geological timescale

Factors That Give Resources Important Value

Natural resources that have good value to humans

Resource that provide services to humans that support life also (photosynthesis, Water Cycle, maintenance of ecosystem

Natural capital yields natural income (yield, or harvest or services)

Renewable Natural Capital Includes...

Organisms that use solar energy and photosynthesis

Non living items (groundwater and ozone layers)

Non Renewable Natural Capital Includes...

Some of these values can include... (soil, water in aquifers, fossil fuels)

Water is a pre determined values (either renewable or nonrenewable)

Iron ... when extracted is a nonrenewable source

Factors That Determine The Use of a Natural Capital

Politics, the environment, social and cultural values, and technology

Hydrogen fuel cells replacing hydrocarbon based fuel- harvesting algae as a food source

Example of Changing Values of natural Capital\

Many of the cork oak trees were harvested for the biodegradable cork wine bottle sealings. There being replaced by plastic cork sealing which aren't biodegradable and also are made by fossil fuels. Cork forest are losing their natural capital value and thus are being chopped down for property use. The trees have acquired biodiversity.

Valuation-

natural capital that we can put prices on

Factors That Determine Valuation

Economic price of a marketable good

Ecological functions (water storages)

Recreational functions (tourism, leisure activities)

Non-Valuation-

natural capital that is almost impossible to put a price on

Factors That Determine Non Valuation

Intrinsic value

Potential future energy source use

Has value to preexisting future generations

Socioeconomic Environmental Assessment (SEA)-

trying to value the environmental and track resource depletion.

Solid Domestic Waste (SDW) / Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)-

human waste (garbage) from urban and residential zones.

Types of SDW

Biodegradable- food waste, paper, green waste

Recyclable- Paper, glass, metal, some plastics, cloths

Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment- TV's, computers, phones

Hazardous- paints, chemicals, light bulbs

Toxic- pesticides, herbicides

Medical- needles, syringes, drugs

Inert- concrete construction waste

Mixed- plastic toys

Operations That Produce Waste

energy productions, transportation, industrial processes, construction, selling of good and services, domestic activities)

Linear Model's Process

Find the raw materials or natural capital

Uses the energy to produce goods

Breaking down of an item leading to it becoming a deterrent

The Aims of A Circular Economy

Restorative to the environment

Uses renewable energy resources

Elimination or reduction of toxic wastes

Eradication of waste through careful design

Strategies To Managing (SDW)

Reduce, Reuse, Recycle

The Process of Waste To Energy Energy Production

Trash is incinerated by an incinerator. The heated produced is then transferred into steam which then is used to directly power turbines or heat buildings

Anaerobic Digestion

Biodegradable matter is broken up by microorganisms in the absence of oxygen. Methane produced can be used as fuel and the waste can also later be used as fertilizer or soil conditioner.

Domestic Organic Waste

Can be composted or put into anaerobic digesters. Governmental authorities can collect organic waste and compost it on a large scale and sell the composted material which are fertilizers to the public .

Carrying Capacity-

the maximum number of a species or "load" that can be sustainably supported by a given area

Reasons on why it is difficult determining the carrying capacity for humans

Far greater range of resource use for humans

Substituting resources for when they run out

Resources from human to human may vary extremely

Importation of resources

Developing technologies will also lead to change in resource use

Ecocentrist-

People who attempt to virtually eliminate all non-renewable resource use, and minimize their use of renewable resource use.

Ethnocentrists-

People who believe that technological innovation will allow for a expanded human carrying capacity

Conventional Economist:

Argue that trade and technology increase the carrying capacity

Ecological Economist:

Argue that technological innovation increase will lead to increased efficiency when regarding the use of natural capital.

Problems with Increased productivity due to technological innovation

Long term carrying capacity will decrease

High productions cannot be sustained

Factors that result in an increase in Human Carrying Capacity

Less environmental demand

Reusing (reuse object more than once)

Recycling (object material is used again and again)

Remanufacturing (an object's materials are used to manufacture a product of similar conduct)

Absolute reduction in energy and material use (in general using less materials- paper, energy) --- often eroded by population increase

Ecological Footprint (EF)-

an area of land and water required to support a defined human population at a given standard of living.

Factors That Determine a Ecological Footprint

Lifestyle choices

Productivity of food production systems

Land use and industry

A Fair Earthshare-

amount of land each person would get if all the ecologically productive land on Earth were divided evenly among the present world population

Ecological Footprint's Dependence on a country

Population size

Consumption per capita

How many people and how much land one uses

Material Growth lands (timber areas, cow grazing, biofuels, etc)