GNS T1L4

Nuclear Strategy and Proliferation

What are the countries with nuclear arsenals?

* USA
* Russia
* UK
* France
* China
* India
* Pakistan
* North Korea
* Israel

What is the **Nuclear Triad**?

* Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)
* Strategic Bombers
* Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs)

What are Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)?

* Heaviest weapon in the arsenal, uses multiple warheads (MIRVs)
* Can be mobile and hidden on trucks or in hardened underground silos • Long flight time
* Often static positions, vulnerable to first strikes

What are Strategic Bombers?

* Re-usable carrier system
* Flexible, can be used for first and second strikes
* Immune to second strikes
* Better cost/payload ratio
* (Potentially) vulnerable to air defense and susceptible to human error

What is Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs)?

* Positions are unknown to the enemy the “life insurance” of nuclear war
* Immune to first strikes
* Vulnerable to attack submarines and destroyers

What is mutually assured destruction (MAD)?

A doctrine during the Cold War that suggests if adversaries possess enough nuclear weapons to destroy each other, the fear of massive retaliation deters them from initiating a nuclear attack, creating strategic stability.

What are the two type of nuclear war?

* Limited nuclear war
* Full-scale nuclear war

What are the strategies of **limited nuclear war**?

* Counterforce targeting
* Disarming strike
* Decapitation strike

What is **counterforce targeting**?

A military strategy that involves aiming weapons at an opponent's military assets to destroy or disable them, rather than targeting civilian population centres.

What is an **disarming strike**?

Military action that seeks to disable or destroy an opponent's military capabilities to weaken or eliminate their ability to continue military operations.

What is a **decaptation strike**?

A military strategy that involves targeting and eliminating the leadership or high-ranking officials of an opponent's military or government, with the aim of disrupting their command and control structure and undermining their ability to function effectively.

What are the strategies of **full-scale nuclear war**?

* Countervalue targeting
* Retaliatory strike (second strike)

What is **countervalue targeting**?

A military strategy that involves aiming weapons at an opponent's civilian population centres to cause destruction and damage, with the intent of weakening their morale and strategic capability.

Defensive neorealists are…

Security maximisers

* They will increase their arsenal until they reach deterrence

What is nuclear deterrence?

A strategic concept that aims to prevent the use of nuclear weapons by threatening a retaliatory response in the event of a nuclear attack, thereby creating a deterrent effect that dissuades potential adversaries from initiating such an attack due to the fear of devastating consequences.

What principle (3s) do nuclear weapons relate to?

Self-help

Why are nuclear weapons the ultimate form of self-help?

Because they guarantee a state’s existence and influence

The logical concepts behind nuclear deterrence overlap with another tool of realists. Which is that?

Game Theory

What is “**Game Theory**”?

* The formal, mathematical study of conflict and cooperation in strategic scenarios
* Actors will make rational choices intended to maximize their outcome.
* Used to predict and explain behaviour in (e.g.) economics, war, diplomacy, or biology.

What are the 3 types of “**Game Theory**”?

* Games of perfect/imperfect information
* Cooperative/non-cooperative games
* Symmetric/asymmetric games

What are “**Games of perfect / imperfect information**”?

Games like chess or checker are entirely transparent (each player’s goals, pieces, and capabilities are known). In international relations, this is rarely the case.

What are “**Cooperative / non cooperative games”**:

Players can negotiate and form coalitions to maximize their outcomes. In the most extreme form of non-cooperative games, so called zero-sum games , one player’s gain exactly balances the other player’s

What are “**Symmetric / asymmetric games**”?

Each player has identical strategy sets to choose from, which potentially offer the same payoffs, depending on the other players’ strategies. In asymmetric games, however, players’ available (or viable) strategies may differ, for example, due to different capabilities.

What doe the “**Prisoners’ Dilemma”** entail?

The paradox: Cooperation may lead to better results, but non-cooperation is often the more rational choice

What is the “**pareto efficient”**?

It refers to a state or situation in economics or social sciences where no individual or group can be made better off without making someone else worse off.

What is the “**Nash equilibrium”**?

Both parties have to assume that the other one betrays them (for this is the maximum payoff), so the rational choice is to betray him, too. At this point, nobody has any incentive to change strategy.

How can nuclear war be explained using game theory?

A non cooperative zero-sum game with sequential moves (“strikes”) and imperfect information

Nuclear war and “**minimax theorem**”

Nuclear powers are rational actors who will minimize their own maximum losses

How is a nuclear arms race is a Nash equilibrium?

Players need to continue their strategy to keep the MAD balance stable

Nuclear disarmament through cooperation would be the … strategy

Pareto efficient

How is nuclear war an asymmetric game?

* Different numbers, types, ranges, and detectability of weapons.
* Different priorities/objectives (protecting civilian population vs. protecting own nuclear weapons).

Nuclear geopolitics - Important factors

* Population density
* Protecting the civilian population
* Size and placement of national territory
* Easy access and political control

Range & flight time of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)

Range of more than 5,500 km, but (possibly) more than 30 minutes of flight time

Range & flight time of Medium --/Short Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs and “theatre missiles”)

May fly less than 15 minutes, but need to be stationed in forward positions. Therefore, they have caused severe political crises

Liberalist perspective on disarmament and counter-proliferation

Cooperation and treaty law to facilitate non proliferation

Social Constructivism perspective on disarmament and counter-proliferation

Normative preference for disarmament and perception of nuclear power

**“Partial Test Ban Treaty”** (1963)

Nuclear testing limited to subterranean tests

**Non Proliferation Treaty** (NPT) (1968/70)

Signatories agree to limit the possession of nuclear weapons to the (then) five existing nuclear powers. In return, they gain access to civilian nuclear technology. Today, 190 states have signed the NPT (see map above)