PSCI 3500 Midterm

Science and Falsification

• provisionally understanding the world

• quest for knowledge that relies on criticism

• might be wrong, might be potentially testable

Scientific Method

1. Research Question

2. Theory

3. Hypothesis: X (IV) → Y (DV)

4. Test Hypothesis

5. Evaluation

Albert Hirschman (1970)

• Exit: Your behavior to achieve the best outcome possible given your new environment

• Voice: “Voice” (complain, protests, lobby, take direct action) to try change the environment 

• Loyalty: Accept the fact and make no changes

Game Theory

• is a tool, not theory

• Choices, strategies, equilibrium

Contractarian view of the state

State of Nature: “war of every man against every man” (Hobbes)

Predatory view of the state

• Extortion (Charles Tilly)

• Concert for security leads states to use their power to extract resources from others

State of Nature Game with Payoffs

Democracy

• Demokratia, dangerous and unstable by the middle of the 19th century

• Many philosophers preferred Monarchy to Democracy

View of Democracy

• Substantive View: outcomes

• Procedural view: minimalist, institutions or procedures, Dahl’s view

• Polyarchies: inclusion, contestation

Nominal measure

• discrete categories

• a democracy or a dictatorship

Ordinal measure

• rank order cases

• ex.  income: low income, middle income, high income

Interval measure

• Difference between variables can be evaluated

• Polity IV and Freedom House

How do you evaluate measures?

• validity

• reliability

• replicability

Validity

our measures correspond to the concepts

Reliability

repeatedly and consistently produces the same score

Replicability

the ability of third-party scholars to reproduce the process

Modernization theory

as countries develop economically, they are

• more likely to become democratic

• more likely to remain democratic

Survival Story

• Przeworski (Przeworski and Limongi, 1997)

• Democracy is more likely to survive as countries develop and become richer, but it is not more likely to emerge

Socioeconomic structure

• a shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services

• Peasants moved from rural to urban areas

• Gentry became a rising class

Resource Curse

Democracy is less likely to emerge and survive in countries whose economies depend heavily on oil production or mineral extraction

Dependent variable (Y)

• the thing we want to explain

• Change in DV depends on IV

Independent variables (X)

• the things we think explain or determine the value of the dependent variable

• Doesn’t depend on anyone or anything 

Empirical evidence model

Y against X

Economic Determinants of Transitions to Democracy

Primordialist arguments

• fixed since “primordial” times

• democracy is not for everyone

Constructivist arguments

constructed or invented rather than inherited

Parochial

traditional

What are subjects in political culture?

centralized authoritarian systems

What are civics (participants)?

• Democratic

• Compatible with democracy

Clash of civilization

cultural conflicts, certain cultures are incompatible with democracy

Is Protestantism compatible with democracy? Why or why not?

Yes bc of individual responsibility

types: lutherans, baptists

Why was catholicism considered incompatible with democracy?

• Hierarchy

• Conflicts with loyalty to church/pope

Why was confucianism considered incompatible with democracy?

• Asian values

• collectivist instead of individualists

• Social harmony, yin and yang 

Why was islam considered incompatible with democracy?

• theocracy (government by religion)

• violent

• women as being unequal

Three waves of democracy–Huntington

• Wave 1: 1828–1926. American and French revolutions, WWI

• Wave 2: 1943–1962. Italy, West Germany, Japan, Austria, and so on

• Wave 3: 1974– . Started with Greece, Spain, and Portugal. Then Latin America and Africa.

Transition to Democracy

• external imposition

• Bottom-up transition

• Top-down transition

External Imposition

Intervention by democracies produces the trappings of democracy, but fails to increase the level of democracy

Preference Falsification

applaud dictators who they disliked (Kuran 1991)

Revolutionary threshold

• type of tipping model

• An individual has a protest size at which she/he is willing to participate

• A = {0, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10}

  • won’t revolt

• A’ = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10}

  • Change of of private preferences 

  • Revolutionary cascade, east germany and arab spring 

  • Sudden revolution

  • Predictability

Top-down transition

• possible under incomplete information, under uncertainty, or by mistakes

• Policy of liberalization on the part of the government 

Best outcome for dictatorship group and opposition group

Dictatorship group: broaden dictatorship (5,4)

Opposition group: democratic transition (2,5)

How can democratic transitions be possible?

under incomplete information and under some uncertainty

How can top-down transitions occur?

when someone makes a mistake

What are the independent and dependent variables?

As Evangelical in district increases, support for trump increases 

Independent variable: Evangelical in district increases

Dependent variable: support for trump increases

What are the independent and dependent variables?

As literacy increases, level of domestic violence against women decreases 

Independent: Literacy increases

Dependent: level of domestic violence against women decreases

Who was the gentry?

• New class that emerged when peasants moved to urban areas

• Made a lot of money through businesses 

• Important for economic structure 

• Made representative gov

• After industrial revolution, they got a lot of money, not nobles