Intel unit 4 test

Epistemology

The concepts and tools we use to warrant knowledge (how we know what we know)

Anecdotal

Limited to one person’s experiences and generally a low quality form of warrant for a knowledge claim

Peer-reviewed research

When scholars subject their substantive claims and the methods by which they arrived at their conclusions to external, anonymous review by recognized experts in the field of study.

Correlation

Refers to two or more events occurring at roughly the same time and place that may or may not be related casually.

Probabilistic

Type of correlation - expression of the likelihood of event B occurring if cause A happens. (If event A happens, what is % of B occurring?)

Laws

Broadest statements of causality, highlighting an unvarying, deterministic relationship between a cause and its effects

Hypothesis

Specific explanations of cause and effect. Derived from broader casual statements provided by theories, hypothesizes can explain events.

Biases

Problems with perception that cause people to view the world inaccurately and/or make wrong inferences regarding what others perceive.

Vividness of personal experience

The tendency to overestimate the importance or likelihood of an event based on the clarity and intensity of our personal experiences, rather than objective evidence or statistics.

Conformation bias

Tendency to seek out only information that supports prior beliefs

Fundamental attribution error

Cognitive bias where analysts view their countries actions as always right, and adversaries always wrong

Anchoring

Analyst focuses on an initial piece of information, establishing a baseline that may not be representative of the target

Motivated biases

People actively want to believe certain things. Is both emotional and cognitive, connecting one’s identity to a belief. Very hard to alter as it’s tied to deep commitment within them. Make poor analysts

Iraq Survey Group

Over 1000 Americans, British, and Australian citizens and military personnel tasked with finding out what went wrong during Iraq WMD.

Evidence

compelling support for a particular point

Rational actor model

when analysts believe that decisions in an organization are made on the basis of a logical calculation, such as weighing ends and means or risks and rewards.

Mirror Imaging

occurs when people assume that others, even in a different culture, would deal with a situation more or less the same way in which they would.

Chronology

the listing of events in the order in which they happened. This order may well be different from the order in which reports about the events were received; thus it promotes clarity about where individual events fit into the overall pattern. Briefly summarizing the various events, tofi t them into a chronology, also helps analysts to focus ont h e key elements andt h e relative value of reports.

Network Analysis

A way to think about problems; looks at multiple possible links, and thus an enhanced capacity for sensing and communicating.

Flowchart

lays out the times and dates of a specific vent; valuable to analysts because they take advantage of the power of visualization to show an overall picture, summarize large amounts of data, and indicate gaps.

Stoplight Matrix

Another use of a matrix is to lay out indicators in a grid using a system known as a stoplight matrix, with green indicating normal activity (low risk or threat), yellow indicating caution (something to be investigated), and red indicating the need for immediate attention and perhaps action

Red Team

a procedure from military training in which a unit is explicitly assigned the duty of conducting itself the way the enemy would:

Critical Thinking

reflexivity regarding how one thinks about subjects- that is, thinking about thinking- and the ability to interrogate the possible hidden motives behind the truth claims of others, to discern the origins of ideas.

Falsifiable

a hypothesis or scientific statement can be proven false through evidence or observation. It allows for testing and refining theories in the scientific method.

Decomposition

a means by which analysts break down intelligence tasking into smaller, more manageable parts.

Indicators

Drivers of events used to track changes and the corresponding effects of these drivers over time.

Systems analysis

Good judgement project

teaches people from a wide variety of backgrounds how to become “super forecasters”. using techniques from statistics, psychology, and economics.

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

a method designed to eliminate less plausible explanations for events.