Power and developments

US is hegemon (5)

• Wall Street is the world's central global trading hub, with the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 at $47 trillion as of March 2025

• The USA has some 750 military bases in more than 80 countries across the globe and can deploy troops anywhere in the world at any time.

• The US has the world's largest military budget. In 2015, it spent $610 b on defence, more than the rest of the world combined ($601 b). China spent $216 bn

• The aggregate tonnage of the US navy is greater than China and Russia. The US has 11 aircraft carriers compared to 3 for China and 1 for Russia.

• The USA has an expanding population that is estimated to reach 439 million by 2050.

US is not hegemon (7)

• China has overtaken the US as the biggest investor in South America and Africa. US debt to China in early 2025 amounted to $749 billion

• The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AlIB) based in Beijing, has 98 members and 12 prospective members and is challenging the World Bank as a major lender in the developing world

• The USA's soft-power influence has been undermined by unpopular wars in the middle east and questionable tactics with terrorist suspects, such as waterboarding in Guantanamo Bay. Iran. Venezuela.

• The Trump administration's policy of America First has alienated many nation-states and reduced US soft-power influence. This can be seen in the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the opportunity for China to seize global leadership in combatting climate change

• In 2016 Russia announced that it had constructed the world's most lethal nuclear weapon: the

• RS:28 Sarmat, which can dodge radar, travel up to 10,000 km and can carry up to 12 warheads

• China has been expanding its global cultural influence by opening Confucius Institutes across the world, spreading Chinese values.

Multipolarity (7)

• With the collapse of the Soviet Union the US achieved hegemonic status. According to the hegemonic stability theory, a hegemon that is perceived by other states as being benign can act as a global policeman and encourage and promote global stability.

• Liberals were optimistic at the end of the Cold War that there was potential for greater stability and peace. The UN was now more functional without the USA and Soviet Union vying for dominance and this was a time of global cooperation marked by humanitarian interventions.

• The rise of China, Russia and the BRIC countries will see an increase in global instability as the US is challenged for hegemony. This will increase the sense of an anarchical world order with no guarantee of states cooperating due to the ineffectiveness of global governance.

• Liberals are more optimistic about the consequences of multipolarity for global peace and stability. They argue that in the absence of a global hegemony or superpower rivalry, states are more likely to cooperate in multilateral organs of global governance.

• A multipolar world encourages risk taking by states, undermining the potential for a long-lasting balance of power. WWIl broke out because global politics had become multipolar in the 1930s, with the Axis Powers prepared to take the risk of rebalancing global relations in their favour.

• Realists, like Mearsheimer, argue that multipolarity represents the most unstable distribution of global power. This is because the system is much more fluid than bipolarity and unipolarity, since there is a constantly shifting balance of power as even matched states seek to maximise their influence at the expense of others.

• Liberals argue that for multipolarity to provide peace, nation-states must put aside state egoism and be prepared to cooperate through organisations such as the G7, G20, UN, WTO and EU.

Unipolarity (10)

• The global triumph of the Washington Consensus, based upon the free-market capitalism of the US, has led to greater trade between nations than ever before. This encourages trust, cooperation and a more global interconnected economy.

• China has recently began challenging American hegemony, particularly in its 'near-abroad' with the building of reefs in the South China Sea, despite US condemnation. Russia exhibited a strong challenge to US hegemony with its annexation of Crimea despite international condemnation.

• The unchallenged authority of Rome provided stability in the ancient world as no other power could challenge its authority. This long period of peace was known as Pax Romana. A similar situation occurred during the apogee of the British Empire, known as Pax Britannia. Pax Americana was achieved at the end of the Cold War.

• As states are power maximisers, in their attempts to protect themselves, they will feel constrained by another power's claims to global hegemony. This will be particularly dangerous and destabilising, particularly when a hegemon is declining in power and influence, and this can make international relations very volatile.

• The USA's unrivalled military outreach has prevented certain states from achieving regional hegemony. The US has a significant military presence in the Pacific, deterring China's ambitions and the US Fifth Fleet patrols the Straits of Hormuz in the middle east, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, deterring Iran from seeking regional hegemony.

• The end of the ideological struggle of the Cold War has seen many countries 'freeloading' off the back of US power. Countries can look to the US for military protection, deterring conflict, or economic security through the strength of its markets.

• Francis Fukuyama highlighted how The End of History had been achieved in the 1990s as capitalism and liberal democracy triumphed. The USA's cultural, political and economic identity was assured and a period of global peace would ensue.

• The US political philosopher Noam Chomsky argued that the possession of hegemonic power is very dangerous, since a lack of constraints can encourage a state to act in defiance of international norms of behaviour. This can lead to a malign hegemony, in which a 'rogue superpower' no longer takes the views of other states.

• Britain at the beginning of the 20th century was a declining power, losing the Boer War and being challenged by Germany, who had only recently become a nation-state. Similar claims could be made against the US, who failed in its objectives in the middle east and saw its economic model shaken with the 2008 financial crash.

• Kenneth Waltz has highlighted how a unipolar world can also be highly unstable because the hegemonic status of one state can encourage dangerous resentment among emerging powers.

BRICS and emerging powers (6)

• Brazil, Russia, India, China and South America originally

• As of 2025/2026, it has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia, representing over 45% of the world's population and significant global GDP

• Russia, India and China have nuclear weapons and rank in thee top 5 2026 military spending

• India, Russia, China and Brazil rank in top 10 for population ranking

• All have lots of natural resources and trade

  • Brazil - uranium, hydropower, coffee

  • Russia - oil, gas and coal

  • India - telecommunications and MNCs outsources

  • China idominates global trade for materials like gallium (98% of exports), magnesium (95%), tungsten (82%)

  • South Africa - diamonds, gold, cobalt

• All in G20

MINT countries (2)

• Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey

• None have nuclear weapons