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Imagine an emerging market with only 15 years of data. Compute the historical ERP using the geometric mean. (Hint: Compute the annual ERP=Rm-Rrf first and then calculate the geometric mean of it). Save the data to answer Question 2.
Rm | Rrf | |
1 | 0.100 | 0.035 |
2 | 0.120 | 0.045 |
3 | 0.300 | 0.068 |
4 | 0.200 | 0.060 |
5 | 0.050 | 0.030 |
6 | -0.030 | 0.020 |
7 | 0.050 | 0.010 |
8 | 0.100 | 0.030 |
9 | 0.450 | 0.060 |
10 | 0.230 | 0.050 |
11 | 0.150 | 0.040 |
12 | 0.100 | 0.030 |
13 | 0.060 | 0.020 |
14 | 0.020 | 0.020 |
15 | -0.100 | 0.010 |
0.079
0.085
0.063
0.094
0.079
Using the data from question 1, compute the historical ERP using the arithmetic mean.
0.081
0.079
0.085
0.098
0.085
Imagine that the value of the SP500 is 3980. Last 12-months’ dividends and buybacks were 162.00 and are projected to grow over the next 5 years at 3.5%. After that the long-run growth rate is 1%. Risk free rate is 1%. Compute the implied ERP. (Use this illustration for January 2019 ERP as a jumping off point. Once you compute r, don't forget to subtract out Rrf to get implied ERP.)
6.8
5.6
4.6
6.3
4.6
A global firm domiciled in the US is exposed to risk in the markets where it operates. Its ERP is:
US ERP
Combination of ERPs from markets where it operates
Combination of ERPs from markets where it operates