Voting Behaviour and the role of the Media

Regional differences

Different parts of the UK have historically voted certain ways:

Wales - Historically Labour, but recent May Local Elections have seen shift to Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

Northern Ireland - Own party system split between Unionists (DUP) and Nationalists (Sinn Fein, in power). No mainstream Westminster party succeeds in NI.

London - Majority Labour due to ethnic diversity and public services.

Rural England - Overwhelmingly Conservative due to being white and their economic and socially conservative ideals.

Industrial North of England - Mostly Labour due to the presence of TUs and historic hatred towards Conservatives, especially Thatcher.

South East - Predominantly Conservative because of the London Commuter Belt and more rural.

Class differneces

Traditionally the Classes were split between Upper (land owners, nobility), Middle (property owners), and Working (labourers) Classes. Now it has developed into a ‘6 Letter system:’

A - Higher management + professional workers, business owners and judges. (Conservative)

B - Middle managers + professionals, store managers, teachers, and lawyers. (Conservative)

C1 - Clerical workers such as office clerks and secretaries (Conservative but may flip)

C2 - Skilled manual workers such as builders, electricians, plumbers (Labour but may flip)

D - Semi skilled and unskilled workers such as day labourers and factory workers (Labour)

E - The unemployed, pensioners and those unable to work (Labour)

Has created staunch sets of voters for each major party, hence why they won 82.4% of the vote between them in 2017.

Partisan Dealignment

The process of voters changing which political party they vote for by becoming less loyal to one party and taking into consideration multiple issues, becoming floating/swing voters.

More common now with the rise of ‘minority’ parties such as the Lib Dems, Reform UK, and The Green Party.

Left Behind Voters

A term used to identify a group of voters who feel ignored by the social and economic reforms that’ve occurred across the UK in the past 50 years.

Tend to be economically left but socially right.

Tend to be: older, white, less educated, financially poorer, and in deprived areas.

Gender impacting voting in the 2019 election

Gender gap in the 2019 election showcased the largest difference in support between men and women since the 1970s with 18% more men voting Conservative then women, whilst the gap was only 5% for Labour.

Gender also correlates with party support, Women under 35 are most likely to vote Green, whilst Men under 35 are most likely to vote Lib Dem.

Scholars debated whether sociodemographic and attitudinal differences fuel the radical right gender gap. But the education level for voters of the radical right in 2019 wasn’t different.
6% more men voted UKIP in the 2014 European Election, dropped to 0.6% by 2017.

In 2019, 26% of men stated they would vote for the Brexit Party during the campaign, compared to 18% of women.

Nigel Farage illustrated how gender opinions on leaders show in voters. Men voted a 3.3 compared to women’s 2.8 pre-2019. Post-2019, it rose to 7.3 for men, and 6.8 for women.

Age differences

Younger voters tend to lean left whilst older voters lean right. But older voters are more likely to vote.

Between 2017-2019, the age at which people shift from voting Labour to Conservative has dropped 8 years to 39. Increased to roughly 60 due to the dramatic collapse of the Conservatives between 2019-2024.

The issue in 2019 was the aging British population made it hard for Corbyn to win enough votes, as well as the younger generation less likely to turnout to vote.

Nick Clegg failed the student demographic after promising the Lib Dems would oppose any increase in Tuition Fees, that argument collapsed 2 months into the coalition.

Ethnicity impacting voting

Often the normality is that “White lean Right” and “BAME lean Left”.

BAME = An umbrella term for people with Black, Asian, or Minority Ethnic backgrounds. Fallen out of use thanks to the newer generation.

Conservatives have had ‘anti-minority’ links with Enoch Powell’s Rivers of Blood speech in 1968, and the ‘Cricket Test’ by Norman Tebbit in 1990.

The concentration of minority ethnic groups are in industrial cities such as Birmingham, London, and Manchester, Labour hotspots.

In 2019 the % of votes for Conservatives were 48% of white people who turned out (63%), compared to 20% of BAME voters (52% turnout). For Labour it was 29% white, and 64% BAME.

Turnout for Elections

Since 1992, there has been a sharp drop in voter turnout, raising democratic legitimacy and public engagement in politics concerns. Also has an impact on which party wins and forms the government.

In 1951, the turnout was 82.6%

In 1979, the turnout was 76%

In 1997, the turnout was 71.3%

In 2019, the turnout was 67.3%

In 2024, the turnout was 59.7% (2nd Lowest since 1945)

Voter Choice

Different factors impact why a voter will choose a certain party:

Economic or Valence issues: Where voters share a common economic preference and vote who will deliver a strong, successful economy. MPs will be rewarded if they deliver, but punished at the polls if it fails.

Rational Choice Theory: Rational/logical judgement based on what’s best for them. The winning verdict will reflect what is best for society.

Issue Voting: A voter places one issue above all, don’t care if other policies may be detrimental to them.

Print Media

Broadsheets - Usually seen as ‘highbrow’, these deal with weighty political debates and present information in a measured, if partisan, way. E.g. The Guardian

Tabloids - These are populist newspapers which focus more on sensation and entertainment. E.g. Daily Mail

Magazines - Can provide an impartial check and help inform high-level debates as political and satirical magazines produce detailed reports. E.g. Private Eye

Radio Media

News Headlines - Has to give regular news and broadcasts, usually on the hour. Basic informative headlines present info without analysis and bias. E.g. BBC News at 6.

Commercial Radio - Number of talk radio stations, designed to engage in political discussions and debate. E.g. LBC Radio

BBC Radio - Many platforms for political discussions with a number of flagship political programmes which interview and challenge politicians and public perceptions. E.g. BBC Radio 4

TV Media

News Broadcasts - All-terrestrial channels are obliged to have regular and impartial news broadcasts occurs at set times for a set duration. E.g. BBC News at 6

Party Broadcasts - 5 minute broadcasts across all channels, regulations to ensure that all parties are given a fair and equal chances.

News Channels - Provide 24hr news coverage, which can drive political events by raising public awareness.

Political Programming - Involve extended interviews and discussions of political issues, allowing the public to engage and sometimes participate.

Online Media

Opinion Polls - Conducted with greater frequency and they are cheaper to run then traditional polls.

Blogs - These provide sources of information and a forum for discussion about political issue.

X/Truth Social - Can provide an informal poll to assess the popularity of an issue or the performances of politicians.

Campaigning - Parties will use viral social media platforms used by certain demographics to appeal to certain age calculations.

Websites - Parties and politicians have their own websites which provide a means to find out about policies, raise issues and donate to the party.

Opinion Polls

Has increased in usage rapidly since 1970s.

Parties, think-tanks, individuals and the media all commission a variety of opinion polls to try to work out public opinions.

Used to test key policies, leadership performance, and the success of a campaigns.

The media often uses them as a starting point for political discussion.

When Done Well polls can be a useful tool to help parties tailor their policies and message to target key demographics.

When Done Poorly misrepresent public opinion and affect the way in which people vote.

Role of the media

Traditionally:

• Report accurately on political events

• Provide commentary on political events and policies

• Act as a check and scrutinise the government

• Investigate controversies and bring them to public attention

• Educate the public on major issues and explain the potential impact of the various options available.

Now they have become partisan which mock and ridicule rather than inform and debate.

Chance that the Radio and TV media becomes so partisan the UK develops a similar split to the USA with media being split along party lines. Already beginning with the rise of GB News.

Events that impacted elections

1979: ‘Crisis, what crisis?’. A headline by The Sun on the WoD. - Framed Callaghan as out of touch, although he never said it and was in front of the polls during the campaign.

1992: ‘We’re alright’ A claim made constantly by Kinnock at a Sheffield Rally - Showed him triumphalist but was only on opinion polls.

1997: The Sun switches support from the Conservatives to Labour - Lead to many supporters switching allegiances, but it was just reacting to prevailing mood.