Politics Essay plans

Long term vs short term factors for voting behaviour

intro - one para long term - one para class and how it has changed - one para on short term considerations

intro

for much of the 20th century voting behaviour was significantly influenced by long-term factors such as class identity, party loyalty, and regional affiliations. But after 1970s this link has weakened, due to embourgeoisement, the rise of a more educated workforce and the growth of identity politics. the role of long-term factors is declining and the support for political parties is more dependent on current events and public perceptions of competence in the tumultuous political landscape of modern Britain.

long term factors

regional patterns - Wales, Merseyside, and North East have strong working-class histories and consequently remain loyal to Labour - class linked loyalties embedded in geography.

Age - the ‘age gradient’ has become one of the most consistent features of British politics since 2017. Younger graduates overwhelmingly support more socially progressive parties such as Labour or Liberal Democrat due to their stance on climate change, social equality and cultural liberalism. Whereas the Conservative have held a long-standing majority share of votes of those over 65.

These both tie in with how social no longer defines the voting behaviour of an individual, but its influences still re-emerge until specific political circumstances

Class and class dealignment

Traditionally - Labour + trade unionism and economic solidarity; Conservative + middle class, property ownership and economic stability

In 2024, Labour still dominates C2DE groups, winning 45% of this category - Conservative remain competitive among AB voters

However these patterns are merely a correlation, not a causation - they are more closely linked to new economic realities - public service funding, taxation and housing and the salience of these issues remains divided along the class lines.

When the issues prioritised by class groups change, there can be large scale partisan dealignment. e.g. 2019 BoJo swung the red wall

the decline of heavy industry and the rise of service sector employment have blurred the class boundaries that traditionally defined electoral persuasions.

Middle income professionals may support Labour on social issues. The 2024 election highlights this fluidity as the decisive vote was a coalition between urban working class individuals and affluent liberal middle class supporters.

There is now a focal shift away from long-term cleavages and towards perceptions of short-term considerations

Short term

Whilst personal social priorities can be derived from longer term proclivities and background - voters have become increasingly polarised in their attitudes towards emerging economic issues, regardless of socio-economic position

Voting behaviour and political alignment now has less and less to do with class and more to do with interpretations of party promises and faith in leadership.

For instance, the 2024 election was dominated by perceptions of Rishi Sunak’s weak leadership and the failures of the Conservative party during years of stagnation. An application of Valence theory helps explain how Labour’s modest policy platform was sufficient to secure a landslide - voters simply believed that Labour would govern more effectively than the Conservatives, not because they promised drastic change, they just offered competence

Rational choice models also suggest that voters acted strategically in 2024, after their disillusionment with the subsequent ineffective Conservative leadership - which was heavily amplified by the media. Long-term divisions were disregarded as the electorate turned to their own evaluation of the competence of the parties in the UK

Pressure Group success

intro - human resources, methods, status

intro

PGs aim to influence policy and gain support through various means

many groups are constrained by their lack of access to financial resources, outsider status, or misalignment with current government

However some are successful when aided by large membership and direct action that contribute to the salience of the issues they raise

additionally, what qualifies success and its extent varies from group to group

HUman resources

Against - e petitions to revoke article 50 and remain in the EU were not successful, despite millions of signatures and celebrity engagement from Patrick Stewart and Gary Lineker in the People Vote campaign for a second referendum.

For - the goverment must still respect political sovereignty and to a certain degree act in the will of the people as a component of democracy

many examples of public pressure bringing about influential change and causing government u turn. e.g. e petitions on the topic of assisted dying and Marcus Rashford’s campaign for the extension of free school meals. aided heavily by media coverage. Whilst outcomes depend on political receptiveness, public support raises the awareness of a cause that a pressure group campaigns for. (if that’s what constitutes their success)

Methods

For groups that seek formal change in the face of injustices, their human resources have varying impact on their success, dependent on their means of bringing about change.

Judicial reviews and legal challenges could be an influential pathway for a PG, but this requires substantial financial resources and expert legal teams - making this passage inaccessible to many PGs.

e.g. Asylum aid and Detention action were successful in combatting the government’s Rwanda Asylum policy

e.g. in