AP Gov Unit 4-5 Mr. Kelly Valley High School

exit poll

public opinion surveys used by major media pollsters to predict electoral winners with speed and precision as well as analyze voting patterns

tracking polls

continuous surveys that enable a campaign or news organization to chart a candidate's daily rise or fall in support

push polls

polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate

random digit dialing

A technique used by pollsters to place telephone calls randomly to both listed and unlisted numbers when conducting a survey. This is a method of randomization.

random sample

a sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion

stratified sample

a sample drawn in such a way that known subgroups within a population are represented in proportion to their numbers in the general population

skewed sample

A sample that is not representative and leads to inaccurate polling results; a deceptive practice used to manipulate public opinion.

Methods of randomization

simple coin toss, rolling dice, computer generated random numbers, table of random numbers

Voter turnout rates in America today are

lower than they are for other OECD countries that are industrialized democracies

Women vote

at a higher rate than men

19th Amendment (1920)

Guaranteed women the right to vote

who votes at highest rates

old people, white people, highly educated people, rich people, women

political socialization

the process by which people gain their political attitudes and opinions

factors of political socialization

family, age, race, school, class, income, occupation, religion, gender, ethnicity, group influence, mass media, party preferences, etc.

distribution of voters on political spectrum

greatest concentration in the middle with small numbers on the fringe

Political Spectrum

a system of classifying different political positions upon one geometric axis that represents people's ideology.

Political Compass

a multi-axis political model to label or organize political thought on two dimensions (social beliefs on Y-axis / economic beliefs on X-axis) creating four quadrants of right libertarian, right authoritarian, left authoritarian, left libertarian

median voter theory

theory that politicians will try to pivot toward voters in the middle during general elections.

base activation theory

theory that politicians will try to win elections by activating members of their political party even if it angers median voters.

open primary

A primary election in which voters may choose in which party to vote as they enter the polling place

closed primary

A primary in which only registered members of a particular political party can vote

Caucus

A meeting of local party members to choose party officials or candidates for public office and to decide the platform. This is used in Iowa for presidential candidate selection.

margin of error

the range of percentage points in which the sample accurately reflects the population

confidence interval

statistical range, with a given probability, that takes random error into account

sample size

the number of times a measurement is replicated in data collection, the larger the sample the smaller the margin of error

Single member district system

system in which the people elect one representative per district. With a winner-take-all rule, this system strengthens the two major parties and weakens minor parties.

proportional representation system

an electoral structure in which political parties win the number of parliamentary seats equal to the percentage of the vote the party receives

Mixed Member Parliament

a legislative body where portions of the elected officials are decided using different voting systems (ex: Germany)

Ranked Choice Voting

Voters put their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices on a ballot. The last-place candidates are gradually eliminated. If your 1st choice is eliminated your vote switches to your second choice. The winner must receive a majority of the vote.

Runoff elections

When no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes in an election, the the top two candidates face each other in a runoff.

one party systems

a system in which only one political party exists or has a chance of holding power, often because the government tolerates no other opposition; usually in authoritarian governments

two party system

An electoral system with two dominant parties that compete in national elections. Third parties may exist but are generally not electorally viable.

Multiple party system

a system of government in which three or more political parties compete for control of the government, these are often the result of proportional representation and result in coalition governments.

coalition building

the banding together of different factions for the purpose of policymaking. In two party systems this happens before the elections, in multiple party systems it happens after the election between the parties

Dealignment

Weakening of partisan preferences that points to a rejection of both major parties and a rise in the number of independents.

Realignment

A process in which a substantial group of voters switches party allegiance, producing a long-term change in the political landscape.

free rider problem

For a group, the problem of people not joining because they can benefit from the group's activities without joining.

Third Parties (American Politics)

Political parties other than the two major parties (Democrats and Republicans)

Roles of Third Parties in American Politics

raise key issues, act as a spoiler, safety valve for discontent, may become one of the two parties, represent minority views

margin of error in elections

because we count all of the votes there is no margin of error. margin of error is a function of sampling

Democratic Party Platform

Supports immigration, abortion, gun control with restrictions, health care reform, etc.

Republican Party Platform

Support stronger border control, merit-based immigration, restricting abortion, gun rights, market-based solutions to healthcare

fiscal policy

Government policy that attempts to manage the government finances by controlling taxing and spending.

monetary policy

the setting of the money supply by policymakers in the federal reserve using mechanisms like the federal lending rate

Electoral College

a body of people representing the states of the US, who formally cast votes for the election of the president and vice president.

focus group

A small group of individuals who are led in discussion by a professional consultant in order to gather opinions on and responses to candidates and issues.

sampling error

an error that occurs when a sample somehow does not represent the target population

approval ratings

The percentage of survey respondents who say that they "approve" or "strongly approve" of the way the president is doing his job.

bandwagon effect

a shift in electoral support to the candidate whom public opinion polls report as the front-runner

social desirability bias

A tendency to give socially approved answers to questions about oneself.

cognitive dissonance

Inner tension that a person experiences after recognizing an inconsistency between behavior and values or opinions

Narrowcasting

targeting media programming at specific populations within society, particularly within one segment of the political spectrum

broadcasting

the transmission of radio waves or TV signals to a broad public audience across the political spectrum

confirmation bias

a tendency to search for information that supports our preconceptions and to ignore or distort contradictory evidence

conservative

A person who believes government power, particularly in the economy, should be limited in order to maximize individual freedom.

liberal

a political perspective open to new opinions or beliefs including a larger role for government and willingness to discard traditional values.

Ideology

a system of ideas and ideals, especially one that forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy.

Libertarian

One who believes in limited government interference in personal and economic liberties

moderate

Person whose views are between conservative and liberal and may include some of both ideologies

Populist

a supporter of the rights and power of the people

progressive

A belief that solving social problems are an appropriate role of the national government

Salience

An individual's belief that an issue is important or relevant to him or her.

Gatekeeping/Agenda Setting

the power of the media to bring public attention to particular issues and problems

Scorekeeping/Horse Race Journalism

news coverage that focuses on who's winning rather than focusing on policy issues relevant to the voters

Inflation

a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money.

federal reserve board

an independent regulatory agency of the federal government established in 1913 to regulate the nation's banking and financial industry

progressive taxation

the tax as a percentage of income increases as income increases

regressive taxation

the tax as a percentage of income decreases as income increases

supply-side economics (Reaganomics)

An economic philosophy that holds the sharply cutting taxes will increase the incentive people have to work, save, and invest. Greater investments will lead to more jobs, a more productive economy, and more tax revenues for the government. This is based on the Laffer curve

Laffer Curve

A relationship between the tax rates and tax revenues that illustrates that high tax rates could lead to lower tax revenues if economic activity is severely discouraged.

Medicare

A federal program of health insurance for persons 65 years of age and older

Medicaid

A federal and state assistance program that pays for health care services for people who cannot afford them.

Social Security

federal program of disability and retirement benefits that covers most working people

demographic trends in the USA

-population is growing, aging, and becoming more diverse-increasing percentage of foreign born-decrease in white population-greatest increase in Hispanic population-smaller increases in black and Asian populations-population is aging-decreases in the middle age and children populations

Swing States v. Safe States

In the Electoral College system, states which are nearly guaranteed to be won by a party are considered safe, while states which could go either way are considered swing and get most of the attention..

Facilitating voter choice

Americans vote on many more officials than most citizens of other countries do.

This requires Americans to be informed about more candidates.

Parties make obtaining this information easier.

People use party as an information "shortcut" when making voting decisions

Racial makeup of the Democratic party

Democratic party is majority white but tends to be more ethnically and racially diverse than the Republican party

Racial makeup of the Republican party

Republican party is super majority white but includes ethnic and racial voters, just as a smaller percentage than the Democrats

simple majority

a majority of 50 percent plus one or the smallest whole number greater than 50%

Plurality

Candidate or party with the most votes cast in an election, not necessarily more than half.

super majority

Required majorities that are greater than a simple majority. (ex: 60%, 2/3, 3/4)

Retrospective Voting Model

a theory of democratic elections in which voters look back at the performance of a party in power and cast ballots on the basis of how well it did in office

prospective voting model

a theory of democratic elections in which voters decide what government will do in the near future by choosing one or another responsible party

rational choice voting

Voting based on what is perceived to be in the citizen's individual interest

party-line voting

voting for candidates who belong only to one political party for all of the offices on the ballot

split-ticket voting

voting for candidates of different parties for different offices at the same election

party identification (party ID)

A voter's self-proclaimed preference for one party or another, this is the strongest predictive variable for predicting voter behavior

Green Party

A minor party dedicated to the environment, social justice, nonviolence, and the foreign policy of nonintervention. Ralph Nader ran as the Green party's nominee in 2000 and acted as a spoiler helping defeat Al Gore

Libertarian Party

A minor party that believes in extremely limited government. Libertarians call for a free market system, expanded individual liberties such as drug legalization, and a foreign policy of nonintervention, free trade, and open immigration.

absentee ballot

One that allows a person to vote without going to the polls on Election Day

Australian ballot

a government-printed ballot of uniform dimensions to be cast in secret that many states adopted around 1890 to reduce voting fraud associated with party-printed ballots cast in public

Motor Voter Law

this was a law to encourage more people to participate in voting. This allowed people to register to vote while they renewed their license. The thought was that most people renew their license and thus it would give them a chance to register at the same time.

midterm election

Elections held midway between presidential elections.

political efficacy

The belief that one's political participation really matters - that one's vote can actually make a difference

Precinct

The smallest unit of election administration; a voting district

voter apathy

indifference and inaction on the part of individuals or groups with respect to the political process

voter registration

System designed to reduce voter fraud by limiting voting to those who have established eligibility to vote by submitting the proper documents.

voter turnout

the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election

wards

divisions of a city for electoral or administrative purposes or as units for organizing political parties

linkage institutions

The channels through which people's concerns become political issues on the government's policy agenda. In the United States, linkage institutions include elections, political parties, interest groups, and the media.