Evaluate the extent to which general elections in the UK are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition. (30) -

AGREE 1

the unpopularity of the prime minister is a key reason why voters vote against a governing party

1. Rishi Sunak leaving D-day commemorations early spread very quickly on social media harming the Tories popularity

2. 2010 gen election: DC was able to win the election due to the unpopularity of the prime minister Gordon Brown

IPSOS Mori poll: 33% regarded DC as the most capable PM, compared to 29% for Brown

3. 1979 gen election: PM James Callaghan was very unpopular due to the winter of discontent which allowed CON to gain support despite Thatcher not being well known.

Opposition leaders don't need to be hugely popular to win

DISAGREE 1

popularity of opposition leaders

1. 1997 gen election:

Blair - very popular across the country, strong, competent, charismatic, clear vision and control over his party

2. John Major - weak, boring leader oversaw a CON party which was divided over Europe and damaged by a series of "sleaze" scandals e.g cash for questions.

AGREE 2

Perceived incompetence of the government when in office

1. 1979 election: LAB voted out due to perception they were unable to manage the economy especially during the "winter of discontent" when attempts to impose a 5% limit on pay increases led to widespread strikes.

2. Imcompetence of CON government since 2019 was the most important factor in LABs landslide victory. The CON government failed to follow its own COVID 19 members and held parties whilst the public stayed inside.

Voters hold government accountable by punishing them at the next election.

DISAGREE 2

Opposition can only benefit from gov incompetence if they are perceived competent themselves.

1. 1997 election: LAB presented themselves as economically competent, pledged not to increase income tax and to prioritise national finances.

2. 1979 election: CON party's message focused on brining down inflation LAB did too but lacked credibility due to failure in office.

Opposition must appear capable to win

AGREE 3

Opposition parties have similar policies but benefit from having new leadership and avoiding negative associations of the governing party's record in office.

2010 election: CON and LAB policies similar - both parties supporting austerity and bringing down the deficit however CON had more success as the rep for economic competence wasn't damaged by the financial crash that LAB suffered from.

Perception outweighs policy when voters r making a choice.

DISAGREE 3

Offer a manifesto that offers real change

1997 election: Blair successfully rebranded the LAB party. Blair drove forward the policy of modernisation and abandoned old fashioned party policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and strengthening of Trade Union powers.

Use manifestos to offer voters alternatives rather than relying on leadership / party rep