Hypothetical and Causal Reasoning

Hypothetical reasoning

forming and testing a hypothesis to explain evidence

identify problem → form hypothesis → draw implications → test implications

4 steps of hypothetical reasoning

falsifiability

a hypothesis can be proven false by evidence

affirming consequent

if A then B. B. Therefore A. Invalid.

Modus tollens

If A then B. Not B. Therefore not A. Valid.

Confirmation bias

favoring evidence that supports beliefs and ignoring evidence against them

Correlation does not equal causation

Two things happening together does not prove one caused the other.

Post hoc fallacy

Assuming A caused B just because B happened after A.

Agreement

What is the same/common in all effect cases?

Difference

What differs between effect and no-effect cases?

Joint Agreement and Difference

Same in effect cases + absent in no-effect cases

Residues

Match known causes/effects; leftover cause explains leftover effect

Concomitant variation

As one thing increases/decreases, another changes with it