Hybrid regime in Armenia

Armenia regime pre-2018 type?

Neo-Soviet / soft competitive authoritarianism

System type?

Patronal regime (insider networks + oligarchs)

Key leaders?

Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan

“Karabakh Clan” meaning?

Shared Soviet + war networks, not ethnic clan

What was the “castling move”?

Shifted power to PM to bypass term limits

Why did it fail?

Triggered regime collapse (2018)

Autocrat’s dilemma?

Professional army/police refused repression

Armenia’s long-term stability rooted in?

Longue durée (deep historical cohesion)

Key historical trauma?

1915 genocide

Ethnic structure?

Highly cohesive, mono-ethnic

Internal conflict level?

Low (few clan/religious divisions)

Crime level?

Low (Western Europe-like homicide rates)

Gender structure?

Patriarchal but not strongly macho

Women’s role?

Active in protests + household power

Diaspora identity?

Global “trader + migrant” nation

What was the 2018 revolution called?

Velvet Revolution

Why not sudden?

Built from decades of protest learning

Key past protests?

1988 Karabakh, 2015 Electric Yerevan

Main protest tactic 2018?

Mobile, decentralised protests

Leader of movement?

Nikol Pashinyan

Strategy outcome?

Paralysed state without clear target

Why did people join protests?

Democratic values + accountability

Foreign policy stance (2018)?

Neutral (“color-blind”)

Russia policy?

Kept alliances to avoid backlash

Main current constraint?

Security dependence on Russia

Key conflict issue?

Nagorno-Karabakh + regional blockades

Economic development model suggested?

“Developmental state”

Comparators?

Israel / Ireland

Focus sectors?

IT, healthcare, advanced agriculture, chemistry

Main risks today?

Oligarch influence, weak institutions, foreign pressure