AIR TRANSPORT RISKS

• Risk, safety, and security

• ________, _________ and _______ are inescapable structural conditions of air transportation. Air transport systems operate under strict global safety frameworks.

• Despite these high safety standards, risks still exist across both operations and public perception. Understanding risk is essential in aerospace engineering and within global aviation value chains.

• Air transport

  • Aircraft operations

  • Air traffic management

  • Maintenance systems

  • Global supply chain logistics

• ALARP Principle

• 19 (Safety Management)

SYSTEM-LEVEL VIEW OF AIR TRANSPORT RISKS

_________ is a complex socio-technical system.

• Risk is inherent in:

  • _________ operations

  • ________ management

  • _________ systems

  • __________logistics

Risk cannot be eliminated, only managed within acceptable levels (________ principle)

Aviation safety is governed by ICAO Annex _____ (___________t

• Safety Management Systems

• 6 – Aircraft Operations

• 17 – Security

_______________

• proactive and predictive safety systems

ICAO SAFETY FRAMEWORK

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) defines global safety standards:

• Annex 19 – ___________

• Annex ___ - ___________

• Annex ___ - ___________

Transition from reactive → __________ safety systems

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

FOUR PILLARS:

1. Safety Policy and Objectives

2. Safety Assurance

3. Safety Risk Management (SRM)

4. Safety Promotion

______________________ (SMS)

SMS is a formal, top-down, system-wide approach to managing safety risk

FOUR PILLARS:

1. _______ and _______

2. ______________

3. __________ (SRM)

4. _______________

1. Hazard Identification

2. Risk Assessment

3. Risk Mitigation

4. Performance Monitoring

______________________

• Safety Risk Controls

• Acceptable Level of Safety Performance

SAFETY RISK MANAGEMENT (SRM) PROCESS

SMS function for hazard control:

1.___________

2.___________

3.—————-

4.___________

• ___________ (SRCs)

• ___________(ALoSP)

• Catastrophic

• Hazardous

• Major

• Minor

• Negligible

AVIATION RISK MATRIX (ICAO STANDARD)

Risk is categorized using a severity vs likelihood matrix:

• __________ – Leads to total system failure, multiple fatalities, or loss of the aircraft.

• __________ – Severe reduction in safety margins, possible serious injury or major system damage.

• __________ – Significant reduction in safety margins, crew workload increase, or passenger discomfort.

• ________– Small reduction in safety margins with no significant effect on safety.

• ________ – No meaningful effect on safety or aircraft operation.

• Frequent

• Occasional

• Remote

• Improbable

• Extremely Improbable

AVIATION RISK MATRIX (ICAO STANDARD)

Likelihood levels:

• _________ – Expected to occur often in operational conditions.

• __________– Likely to occur sometimes during operations.

• __________– Unlikely but possible under normal conditions.

• _________ – Very unlikely to occur but not impossible.

• __________ – Almost never expected to occur during the system’s lifetime.

Actual risk

• 0.05

  • billion

Perceived risk

• High-impact, low-frequency events

• Media amplification

• Lack of system visibility

Psychological distortion

• Availability heuristic

• Dread risk effect

PERCEIVED VS ACTUAL RISK

_________ (statistical):

• Extremely low in commercial aviation (~_____fatalities per _____ passenger-km)

___________:

• Often overestimated due to:

  • High-impact, ______ events

  • _______ amplification

  • Lack of system visibility

_____________ modeled using:

• ____________

• ________effect

Air Transport

• ~ 0.05

• Very Low

Rail

• 0.6

• Low

Road (Car)

• 3.1

• Moderate

Motorcycle

• 108

• Very High

_____________

• Aviation

ICAO GLOBAL TRANSPORT RISK

Mode: ____________

Fatalities / Billion PKM: ~ ____

Actual Risk: ______

Perceived Risk: High

____________________

Mode: __________

Fatalities / Billion PKM: ~___

Actual Risk:____

Perceived Risk: Low

____________________

Mode: __________

Fatalities / Billion PKM: ~___

Actual Risk:_____

Perceived Risk: Low

____________________

Mode: ________

Fatalities / Billion PKM: ~___

Actual Risk:_______

Perceived Risk: Moderate

_____ remains the safest mode statistically, but perception is disproportionately high.

• Air Traffic Control (ATC) saturation

• Airport ground handling failures

• Crew Resource Management (CRM) errors

• Maintenance-Induced Failures

• Reliability Block Diagrams

• Human Factors Analysis and Classification System

OPERATIONAL RISK DRIVERS

_____________ – Occurs when traffic demand exceeds controller capacity, increasing workload, communication delays, and the risk of separation loss.

______________ – Includes errors in baggage handling, refueling, pushback, or loading, which can lead to delays, damage, or safety hazards on the ground.

______________(CRM) errors – Breakdowns in communication, decision-making, or teamwork among flight crew that can compromise situational awareness and safety.

____________(MIF) – Faults introduced during maintenance due to human error, improper procedures, or inadequate inspection, potentially affecting aircraft reliability.

___________ (RBD) – Used to model system reliability by representing components and their interdependencies to evaluate failure probabilities.

__________ (HFACS) – A framework for identifying and analyzing human errors by tracing them to organizational, supervisory, and individual factors.

• Functional risk

• Physical risk

• Psychological risk

• Social risk

• Temporal risk

TYPES OF PERCEIVED RISK

___________ - is the perceived likelihood of a service failure (minor fatality) and/or an inferior service performance (quality) responsible that a passenger will not attain the best possible benefit or utility.

_____________ - the probability that, due to a service failure (major fatality) or through the physical and environmental circumstances of flying (reduced oxygen pressure and air humidity), the passenger is injured or harmed.

_____________ - the likelihood of embarrassment or the loss of self- esteem resulting from a flying experience. Furthermore, it is the risk of a negative effect on the passenger’s peace of mind or self-perception resulting from difficulties between airline passengers.

__________ - is the probability that an image or a reputation of the chosen airline adversely affects the way others think about the passenger.

__________ - represents the time loss associated with a service failure and/or theextra effort getting the failure adjusted, repaired or replaced. In other words, the likelihood of time loss during check-in, time loss due to inconvenient schedule, delays, etc.

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

• Safety Management System (SMS)

• Security Management System

• Quality Management System

___________________________

• Global Aviation Safety Plan

_______________ (IMS)

____________ – Hazard identification, risk assessment, and safety assurance

_____________ – Protection against unlawful interference and threats

_____________ (QMS) – Process control, compliance, and continuous improvement

Framework Support:

International Civil Aviation Organization – _____________ (GASP)