SES final energy and environment

How much have climate disasters cost over the past decade?

Approximately $2 trillion, with $451 billion in 2022 and 2023 alone.

How have climate-related disasters changed in frequency?

83% increase from 1980-1999 vs 2000-2019, with 19% cost increase over the past decade.

What factors are included in climate change cost calculations?

Direct impacts to physical and human capital.

What factors are excluded from climate change cost calculations?

Indirect impacts to infrastructure, supply chains, agriculture, mental and social impacts of death, exacerbation of inequality.

Are current climate damage estimates over or under-estimates?

Under-estimates.

What is the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)?

The net present value of economic damages from emitting one additional ton of CO2.

How is SCC used in policy?

In benefit-cost analysis to compare climate priorities against other policy priorities.

What three factors most affect SCC calculation?

Discount rate, global vs domestic damages, and uncertainties.

What are the four mean SCC estimates from the reading?

$80, $118, $185, and $308.

What is the Biden Administration's SCC estimate?

$190 per ton (Dec 2023).

SCC math: Project A reduces 100 tons at $20,000 cost. SCC is $100. Net benefit?

100 × $100 − $20,000 = −$10,000 (negative, bad project).

SCC math: Project B reduces 50 tons at $4,000 cost. SCC is $100. Net benefit?

50 × $100 − $4,000 = +$1,000 (positive, choose this one).

If world emits 40 GtCO2 and SCC is $190, what are total annual damages?

$7.6 trillion.

One ton of CO2 equals what driving distance?

Driving a Mustang GT from San Francisco to Chicago.

What are the four steps to calculate SCC?

1) Forecast future emissions from GDP, population, technology. 2) Convert annual emissions to atmospheric stock and forecast temperature/sea level rise. 3) Assess impacts on agriculture, health, energy, coastal infrastructure. 4) Convert future damages to present value and sum them.

What are RCPs?

Representative Concentration Pathways. RCP 2.6 is best case, RCP 8.5 is worst case.

What is the global GHG breakdown by sector?

Electricity 25%, Food and Agriculture 24%, Industry 21%, Transportation 14%, Other 10%, Buildings 6%.

What are the largest detailed sub-sources of emissions?

Electricity in buildings 12%, electricity in industry 11%, road transport 10%, deforestation 9%, industry other 7%.

Why is assigning blame for climate change complex?

Need to consider historic emissions (CO2 has long residence time), per capita emissions, and emissions embedded in exports.

What climate impacts are already happening at 1.5°C warming?

Greenland melt rates predicted for 2070 happening now, fire season up 20%, doubling of sea level rise rate, hurricane seasons starting 5 days earlier per decade.

What impacts are likely at 2°C warming (expected 2030s)?

Ice-free summer Arctic, 40% permafrost melted, 100 fewer calories per person per day, 79 million displaced people, greater than 99% loss of coral reefs.

How much human CO2 do natural sinks already absorb?

55%.

What is the breakdown of CO2 fate after emission?

About 59% remains in atmosphere, 24% absorbed by land sinks, 17% by coastal/ocean sinks.

How much CO2 does an average tree sequester per year?

50 lbs per year, or 0.023 tons per year.

How many trees would a US person need to plant to offset emissions?

609 trees (14 tons divided by 0.023).

How many trees would an Indian person need to plant?

89 trees (2.05 tons divided by 0.023).

What are five constraints on tree-planting as a climate solution?

Albedo shift (forests are dark, can warm), soil disturbance releases C, time lag of ~100 years to maturity, area constraints (grasslands already store C, need farmland for 8B people), biodiversity concerns.

Can we solve climate change with reforestation alone?

No, we cannot solve the problem without reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

What does GDP measure?

The size of an economy (value of all products and services produced) and the total income of people in an economy.

What are the main problems with GDP per capita as a wellbeing measure?

Environmental degradation (GDP rises through deforestation), externalities ignored (positive and negative), exclusion of non-market activities (household chores), and income inequality not captured.

Is the critique that GDP 'ignores happiness, health, education' a strong one?

No. GDP per capita is strongly correlated with life expectancy, schooling, and life satisfaction.

What is the system trap 'seeking the wrong goal'?

When goals are inaccurately defined, systems may obediently produce results not intended.

How do you avoid the 'wrong goal' trap?

Specify indicators and goals that reflect the real welfare of the system; don't confuse effort with results.

Name four other system traps.

Success to the Successful, Tragedy of the Commons, Rule Beating, Escalation.

What is the most essential definition of degrowth?

Planned reductions in energy and resource use.

Name three other meanings of degrowth.

Lowering GDP, lowering throughput (energy/materials), abandoning GDP per capita as a policy goal, changing values and lifestyles, increasing redistribution and equity, replacing capitalism.

What was the German politician's degrowth proposal?

50 sq m living space per person, no personal cars, train speeds capped at 100 km/h, rationed train travel allotments.

How would degrowth lifestyle changes affect businesses and GDP?

Demand for products falls, businesses cut production and lay off workers, GDP declines.

What are the main critiques of degrowth?

Many ambiguous meanings, GDP and emissions are decoupled, the real driver of growth is innovation not resources, political infeasibility, contested evidence, contradicts renewable infrastructure investment.

What is Myth 1 of degrowth?

Growth is driven by resource depletion. Wrong. The driver is innovation.

What is Myth 2 of degrowth?

More growth means more environmental degradation. Wrong. Environmental degradation has actually declined in recent decades.

What is the Kuznets Environmental Curve?

A pattern showing environmental quality eventually improves with continued economic growth.

Innovation and resource depletion: name the four relationships.

1) Innovation increases efficiency, reduces use (inverse). 2) Innovation reduces dependence on a resource (inverse). 3) Innovation enables new resources, reducing fossils (e.g., solar). 4) Innovation may not change or may increase use.

What is the slides' final conclusion on growth and climate?

Economic growth and innovation are major solutions; we need more growth, not less. But growth alone is not fast enough, so policy is also needed.

What is the 'law of the minimum'?

The factor present in the least amount or abundance limits the extent of growth.

What metaphor explains the law of the minimum?

A barrel with wooden slats of different heights. Water level is limited by the shortest slat.

What are the characteristics of a bottleneck?

Slowest part of system, limits output, creates waste pile-up, under most strain, can stifle progress or be a strategic choke point, inevitable, often the same as the limiting factor.

How do bottlenecks inspire innovation?

Limits force new solutions. Examples: nylon in WWII for silk shortage, synthetic rubber, synthetic fertilizer.

What are leverage points?

Places in a complex system where a small shift can produce big changes in system functioning.

List the iceberg model leverage points from shallow to deep.

Parameters, Feedbacks, Design, Intent.

What kind of intervention is 'Parameters'?

Adding constraints (logging restrictions) or changing rates of flow (fuel standards). Shallow, easy to implement.

What kind of intervention is 'Feedbacks'?

Modifying feedback loops, like spreading real-time high-quality data on extreme weather events.

What kind of intervention is 'Design'?

Changing the rules that govern the system, like a constitutional amendment to protect the planet.

What kind of intervention is 'Intent'?

Changing mindsets and paradigms, like influencing politicians to accept climate realities.

Where does carbon pricing sit on the leverage hierarchy?

Parameters/Feedbacks level (shallow to mid).

What is the biggest bottleneck for the green energy transition?

Electricity grid capacity.

What's the relationship between bottlenecks and leverage points?

Find the bottleneck and you find the leverage point.

What does MAC stand for?

Marginal Abatement Cost curve.

What does the width of each bar in a MAC curve represent?

The potential emissions avoided by that initiative.

What does negative cost mean on a MAC curve?

The initiative saves money. Examples: LED lights, insulation, efficient appliances.

If SCC is $100, which initiatives are economically feasible on the MAC curve?

All initiatives with abatement cost below $100.

What happens to feasible solutions if SCC estimate increases?

More solutions become economically feasible, including more expensive ones like solar plus storage, blue hydrogen, and carbon capture.

What are the three major economic policies to mitigate climate change?

1) Carbon pricing (carbon tax or cap and trade). 2) Subsidizing emission-reducing technologies. 3) Rules, laws, and regulations.

What is a carbon tax?

A tax on greenhouse gas emissions.

How does a carbon tax reduce emissions?

It creates a cost for emitters, who then reduce emissions to lower their costs.

Which countries have or plan to have a carbon tax?

Argentina, South Africa, some EU countries.

What should a carbon tax equal?

The social cost of carbon.

How should governments use carbon tax revenue?

Save for future generations, redistribute to the poor to offset regressive impact, invest in mitigation initiatives.

How does cap and trade work step by step?

1) Government sets the cap on total emissions. 2) Issues fixed number of permits. 3) Auctions or distributes permits. 4) Permits are traded in a marketplace. 5) Emitters need permits to emit, fined if over. 6) Cap may decline yearly.

What is the common name for cap and trade?

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

What does carbon tax set vs what does cap and trade set?

Carbon tax sets the price. Cap and trade sets the quantity (total emissions).

What was the 1990 Clean Air Act cap and trade for?

SO2 from power plants. It successfully reduced SO2 and acid rain while electricity production grew.

What three ways do emitters respond to a carbon price?

1) Produce less and emit less. 2) Switch to cleaner or more efficient technologies. 3) Innovate new low-emission technologies.

Under cap and trade, if electricity demand rises, what happens?

Permit price rises, total emissions stay the same (capped), production cost rises, innovation incentive rises.

What are the three advantages of carbon pricing?

1) Very effective because people respond to prices quickly. 2) Government doesn't need to know how each industry should reduce. 3) Major revenue generator.

Is federal income tax progressive or regressive?

Progressive. Low income about 0%, middle 16%, high about 25%.

Is carbon price progressive or regressive?

Regressive. It takes a bigger share of income from the poor.

Why is carbon price regressive?

Low-income people spend a larger share of income on energy and goods. Higher-income people have more options to mitigate (efficient appliances, solar, EVs).

How can policymakers fix the regressivity of carbon pricing?

Redistribute carbon price revenues to low-income households as cash. The post-redistribution burden curve becomes much flatter or progressive.

What is carbon leakage?

The practice of firms moving operations to another country to avoid the carbon price.

What is CBAM?

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. A tariff on imported goods equal to the carbon price embedded in those goods.

Why impose CBAM?

To level the playing field and restore domestic competitiveness lost to carbon leakage.

Can CBAM affect foreign emissions?

Yes, it may eventually change foreign firms' emissions by giving them an incentive to clean up.

What are the disadvantages of carbon pricing?

1) Raises costs and is regressive. 2) Reduces domestic competitiveness vs foreign firms, can cause job loss. 3) Politically unpopular.

Why use subsidies instead of carbon pricing?

Carbon pricing is often politically infeasible. Example: US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

What are the advantages of green tech subsidies?

1) Reduce emissions through adoption and innovation. 2) Create jobs. 3) Politically popular because they benefit rich and middle class in short run.

What are the disadvantages of green tech subsidies?

1) Less effective than carbon pricing (second-best option) because they target specific tech, not all economic activity. 2) Increase deficits (US debt could hit 140% of GDP by 2045). 3) Benefit rich and upper-middle, not poor. 4) Can over-stimulate and cause inflation.

What is geoengineering?

Solar radiation management or stratospheric aerosol injection. Injecting particles (SO2, aluminum, calcium carbonate) into the stratosphere (20-30 km up) to deflect sunlight and cool the planet.

What does geoengineering mimic?

Volcanic eruptions.

What is the estimated annual cost of geoengineering?

$2-8 billion per year, negligible compared to $200 billion to $3 trillion annual cost of climate change by 2100.

What are the problems with geoengineering?

Hazy sky, reduces light quality for photosynthesis, damages ozone, alters precipitation, potential for global conflict, doesn't reduce CO2 so doesn't fix ocean acidification, rapid warming if stopped, doesn't refreeze permafrost or sea ice.

How do most researchers view geoengineering?

As 'reluctant supporters' who would prefer emission reductions, with geoengineering as a fallback.

How much has ocean pH dropped since the industrial revolution?

0.1 pH units, which is a 21% increase in acidity (pH is logarithmic).

How acidic could the ocean become by end of century?

150% more acidic than pre-industrial.

What is CCS?

Carbon Capture and Storage. Trapping CO2 during industrial activities before it's emitted, then storing it (typically underground).

What is DAC?

Direct Air Capture. Sucking CO2 out of ambient air and storing it or using it to make products.

Are CCS and DAC negative emission technologies?

Yes.

How did the Biden Admin support DAC?

Pledged $1.2 billion for two commercial scale DAC pilots plus billions in research grants.

How did the Trump Admin treat DAC?

Terminated $7.5 billion in funding for 10 DAC hubs. Supported CCS to align with fossil fuel expansion.

How big could the DAC sector get?

Projected $6 trillion in annual revenues globally by 2050. Capacity could grow 7x by 2030.