Color Revolution

What is a color revolution?

Post-communist regime change triggered by electoral fraud

Key cases?

Serbia (2000), Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004), Kyrgyzstan (2005)

Common feature of cases?

High corruption + public grievances + weak legitimacy

Core problem of protest?

High cost + low chance of success

Why do people still protest?

Electoral fraud creates a shared trigger

What is a focal point?

Election fraud as a clear moment for collective action

How do crowds change protest risk?

More people → lower individual punishment risk

How do crowds change benefits?

Real chance of government change

Role of international attention?

Limits regime violence due to scrutiny

What is linkage to the West?

Economic + political + social ties to EU/US

Effect of high linkage?

More opposition support + foreign pressure on regime

What is organisational power?

State capacity to control elites + society

Strong ruling party effect?

Prevents elite defection

Coercive capacity effect?

Enables repression (security forces)

Wealth control effect?

Cuts opposition funding + controls resources

Why did Georgia/Ukraine/Kyrgyzstan fall?

Weak institutions + elite splits + opposition support

Why did Russia/Belarus/Azerbaijan survive?

Strong coercion + wealth control + elite unity

Belarus leader example?

Alyaksandr Lukashenka

Russia leader example?

Vladimir Putin

What is autocratic learning?

Regimes adapt to prevent future color revolutions

How do regimes adapt?

Tighter election control + preemptive repression

Are they always pro-West?

No—mainly anti-corruption + anti-abuse

What limits new leaders?

Low tolerance → “short leash” from public