American Crime Final

Gun Control Policy Questions

1. do guns increase criminal violence?

2. are regulations effective crime control?

Policy on Gun Violence

in ideological debate (Morals)

not always receptive to science

debate about the language of federal statues

people entitled to protect their well being

2nd amendment in constitution

New Efforts to Study Guns

private foundations: John Arnold Funding

gun violence seen as expensive public health problems

hard to get money to study

billions of dollars in public costs

Guns in America (Cook and Goss)

mis use of guns= 40,000 deaths per year

17 state gun deaths exceed motor vehicle deaths

73% of all killings involve guns

mass killings nearly always involve guns

Challenge with Guns in Society

intensify private and personal grievances (efficient and lethal)

suicide attempts, everyday verbal altercations, workplace conflict

ex. St Louis drive thru

also for recreation and sport

owned by millions who behave responsibly

guns are a consumer product like a car

Car Comparison

can own but with strict regulations

seatbelts, airbags, age limits, DUI enforcement laws, electronic stability controls

can we apply this to guns?

How Many Americans own Guns? (Cook and Goss)

hard to answer

US has highest prevalence of ownership

survey evidence- 35% in 18/19, down from 54% in 20217, but household survey not individual

63 million owners, 265 million guns

men more likely to own guns

Who Owns Guns?

longterm decline in ownership prevalence

white males from rural regions

key correlate: growing up with guns in house

less than college education

more conservative

not representative cross section of Americans (ownership more common among on pop and most likely to suffer from policy reform)

caveat: largest prevalence of ownership found in some largest cities (Dallas) yet lowest found in largest cities (New York)

51% of suicides in Dallas involve a gun, 12% in NY

Percentage of suicides with a gun is a good measure

Owning a Gun for Self Defense Cook and Goss

most people own a gun for self defense

also hunting

hunting is decreasing so decreased reason to own a gun to hunt

men own guns at earlier age

high rate owners over represent total volume of guns

pareto principle 80/20 (some people own a lot of guns) (most people ow 5 guns)

handguns top choice in criminal usage (75% of murders)

handguns account for 45% of new sales

Trends in Ownership

prevalence of household is decreasing

prevalence and number of guns among individuals is increasing

sales are to individuals but surveys assess households

average number of guns per owner is rising

Harm by Guns (Cook and Goss)

as many gun deaths as traffic accident deaths

why so concerned?- their pervasiveness and lethality (efficient, inflict harm, widely available)

1 million deaths over 30 years (exceed deaths in all wars)

don’t know rate/scale of non fatal gun violence

Should Regulate… (part of debate)

1. transactions- felons, youth, mentally impairs, domestic abusers

2. where guns can be carried- schools, churches, bars

3. type of gun- fully automatic

Views on Guns Role in Violence

guns dont kill people, people kill people (intent)

guns dont kill people but they make it very easy (instrumental)

do guns matter for lethal violence or is it just offender intent? (lethal violence about means or intent)

How Guns Affect Violence- Cook and Goss

1. if offenders are deprived of guns would this not remove intent? (Substitute gun for something else)

2. if offender have guns, it increases the odds of inflicting a mortal wound (instrumental)

Case Fatality Ratios

compare rates of similar incidents that differ by weapon type

lethality of gun incidents > lethality of non gun incidents

Instrumentality Effect

guns are not neutral tools

they increase lethality of disputes

provide a power equalizer

case fatality much higher when a gun is present (ex robbery and assault)

gun assaults 12 times more lethal than knife assaults

Instrumentality v Lethal Intent Cook and Goss

overlap between fatal and non fatal attacks

victim death in knife and gun attacks due to location of wounds

most homicides not result of single intent to kill (start as assaults)

fatality rates very high for a gun

non fatal attacks involve wounds in non fatal areas

Intent Only View

violence impulsive, have ambiguous intent, many attacks could result in death or survival

key: outcome depends on weapon not just intent

lethal intent is not operative (does not reflect the persons mindset)

Is Lethality increasing or decreaing?

Probably increasing

minor forms of violence decreasing but homicide/ lethality is rising

violence becoming more deadly (bc of guns)

robbery ex- gun robbers more successful, get more money/ drugs, less victim resistance, victims less likely to get injured, but more deadly when victims do resist

Caliber Evidence

larger caliber= higher odds of death

caliber not linked to skill, intent, number of shots

weapon factors affect case outcomes regardless of intent

US Exceptionalism

US not most violent nation

but deadliest

why- guns and their role in conflict

we can reduce the rate of gun violence without reducing levels of violence (gun regulations)

Policy Implications for Guns

key point= reducing gun use= reduces homicide

even if total violent crime rate stays the same

can increase violent crime but decrease homicide

Context of Suicide

guns present in 50% of suicides

case fatality rate is 85%

suicide is impulsive and preventable

access to guns= turns impulsive action into fatality

Regulating Guns/Policy

regulate transaction of gun sales

but who is at risk?- felons and severe mental illness

transactions regulations can reduce murder but not other crime rates

Value of Guns for Self Defense

2nd amendment, main reason for owning a gun

confirmed in Heller Court Case in 2008

• struck down handgun ban in DC

later permitted in every state

public carrying now widespread (concealed carrying)

Are Guns Good for Self Defense?

key: compare to being unarmed (as victim)

having a gun can reduce threat of victimization

can also escalate situation

key issue in self defense debate

• do guns deter more violence than they produce?

but most people don’t have choice to use gun during conflict

Evidence for Guns and Self Defense

Tark and Kleck 2004

less than 1% of victimizations victims used a gun

forceful resistance reduces injury risk but so do other forceful tactics

slightly stronger effects of gun resistance on victim injury

less loss of property with gun use by victims

weak and unstable effects

selection effects is problem- dont randomly choose weapons

Defensive Gun Use- Cook and Goss

no way of knowing

survey sources sensitive to question type & wording

uses NCVS

non crime victims excluded (problem) (guns could deter crime/someone becoming a victim)

What is Defensive Gun Use?

problem of definition

only in response to violent threat?

self defense= ambiguous term

based on subjective features and perceptions

some incidents might involve illegal carrying

Critique of NCVS for Defensive Gun Use (DGU)

victims unwilling to report they used a gun

underestimates by 30% or more

key: NCVS only asks victims about DGU not non victims

reporting leaves increased vulnerability to police and law

problem- defining what a DGU situation is

• most are normatively/unambiguous (marital violence, drug robbers)

One Shot Gun Survey

National Self Defense Survey by Kleck and Gertz

2.2 to 2.5 million occasions, 3.9% of households, 24% gun was fired

problem= error prone

number of DGU was more than incidents reported to emergency rooms (overestimate of DGU)

Personal Risk of Guns in Home?

yes, translates into suicide rates

higher risk of accidental discharge and injury

as you get older, increased risk of using gun for suicide (but risk of homicide decreases)

JAMA- gun ownership increases risk of gun suicide in days following purchase

Guns as General Deterrent?

lower burglary risk?, does availability translate into lower interpersonal violence? is there a general deterrent effect?

ownership has positive and negative effects

widespread ownership could:

1. reduce community crime

2. infuse illegal markets with guns

3. attract crime (burglary)

evidence- burglary rates higher in places with more guns (bc strong cash incentive)

gun prevalence also increases homicide rates (intensify violence, makes it more lethal)

Concealed Carry Rights/ Laws

public carry of weapon

states have shall issue or may issue

• shall issue- require purchaser receive right to carry (IA) (cant get denied as long as you pass background)

• may issue- can get denied

• Controversial (2nd amend)

• many states moved to shall issue

Iowa Gun Laws

shall issue- Iowa Permit to Carry Weapons

open carry is legal with permit

need permit to purchase and carry outside home

castle doctrine- stand your ground

John Loft: More Guns Less Crime Book

comparing shall issue and may issue states

evidence that shall issue reduced violence

but findings not replicated

most work found the opposite

RAND report- more guns= more gun violence

Concealed Carry Effects

those who carry gun more likely to have it stolen (go into illegal markets)

accident injuries more common when states become shall issue