Diplo Final Terms

Deterrence

A strategy to prevent an adversary from attacking by convincing them that the costs/risks outweigh potential gains, primarily through threats of punishment or denial of success.

Rational-legal Authority

A form of governance where authority is derived from established laws and rules rather than from individual leaders or traditional customs.

Cyber-coercion

The use of digital means to data theft or disruption to force a state to act against their own interests.

Vertical Proliferation

States that already have nuclear weaponry expanding or improving their nuclear technology.

Core Countries

The wealthier states that control most of the global economy (US, Canada, Australia, Western Europe, Japan)

Periphery Countries

States who do not hold a disproportionate or outsized portion of the economy.

Mutually Assured Destruction

The understanding that if nuclear states go to war with other nuclear states, both will ultimately be destroyed and the ensuing war would be both unwinnable and not worth winning.

Horizontal Proliferation

States that do not already have nuclear weaponry gaining nuclear technology.

Right to seek asylum

The idea that all people have the right to flee their home country and seek shelter elsewhere if they are fleeing conflict or being persecuted at home.

Non-refoulement

Protection for refugees to not be returned to where they came from if there is substantial or noteworthy threat that they will be hurt or otherwise irreparably harmed upon return.

Nuclear Latency

When a state has access to all knowledge and materials necessary to construct nuclear weapons but has not. (Spain)

Veto Players

States or actors whose agreement is necessary to change the status-quo.

Stability-instability Paradox

If two states have nuclear weapons, the likelihood of the going into direct large-scale conflict decreases but the likelihood of them going into smaller conflicts increases.

Wallerstein on capitalism and the advantages of states

States with stronger political institutions and economies often contain the core processes (corporate functions) while weaker states contain the peripheral processes, meaning that stronger states can dictate the labor divisions and economic constraints placed on these peripheral states. Essentially, core states control the wealth of peripheral states.

R2P

Responsibility to protect. New global norm set down by the UN in 2005 which seeks to ensure that the international community never fails to prevent mass atrocities. States must: 1. protect their own populations from mass atrocities. 2. States must help one another achieve that same goal for their own populations. 3. The international community must be willing to step in if any nation is failing to protect its population.

US’ response to Rwanda

After a US-lead peacekeeping effort failed in Somalia, the United States did not want to get involved in Rwanda for fear of casualties and loss of political efficacy. They also had advanced warning of the genocide and ethnic militias rising and did nothing, were actively supporting removal of UN peacekeepers at the time, did not see the issue as having a major impact on US interests, and put forth a slow humanitarian response which failed to reduce impact.

Climate change and conflict

Climate change will inevitably change access to resources such as water, arable land, and oil fields. Many states and even non-government entities could use these changes to their benefit. Mass migration due to unemployment or drought from state to state may strain diplomatic relationships. Failure of governments to effectively respond to climate crises could reduce their efficacy and support.

Nuclear deterrence

Each state involved must believe that the other state possesses nuclear weapons and that they are willing and able to use them. It of course helps if you do have nuclear weapons and hold demonstrations to show the power of your weaponry but it is not necessary. The simple belief that a state has weapons even if they don’t is enough.

What makes a state build nukes?

Perceived threat, alliances, domestic political power (especially in autocracies), capability, security and deterrence.

Two types of deterrence

Deterrence by punishment: Mutually assured destruction
Extended deterrence: An attack on our ally is an attack on us

Colonialism and the world wars

Colonies were drawn into European conflicts, colonial subjects were forced to fight in the wars, colonies provided supplies such as soldiers, oil, food, minerals, and land. Colonial subjects willingly fought, especially in WWI because they believed it would give them freedom or increased autonomy which they were denied. In India, these exploitations and broken promises lead to Gandhi’s non-violent protests. The conflicts show the fragility of European power, encourages Vietnam to seek independence influenced by Wilsonian rhetoric. African veterans return from the war expecting equal political opportunity since they have fought for these freedoms in the colonizer’s land in the wars.

Decolonization after WWII

European powers were economically exhausted after the wars, making their imperialist claims weaker. War damaged military power which made it difficult to retain colonies. Europe could no longer claim to be a superior society since they all just tried to kill each other and many of them were occupied. The wars also brought more colonial subjects into political conversations leading to more political awareness in the colonies. The UN emphasized self-determination. US and USSR both welcomed, backed, and fought for newly independent states. However, borders were arbitrary and led to ethnic conflict, proxy wars threatened peace, European economies were substantially weakened.

Emanuel Kant on democracy and peace

People must consent to war (prevents war because citizens bear the cost), separation of power prevents reckless decisions, democracies are less likely to start wars of aggression, free speech and press leads to transparency of government, democratic states are more predictable (reduces miscalculation risks), democracies have shared norms. However, democracies still need international laws, respect for sovereignty, and cosmopolitan rights to establish global peace.

Human rights

Considering them prevents unrest and violence, improves state stability and political power, human rights are often the foundation of international law and upholding them strengthens cooperation, improves health and trust in alliances, advocacy leads to influence and a good public image for a state, wars and military action can be prevented through humanitarian efforts early on, and respecting justice and accountability reduce the risk of repeated actions.

Global commons

Problem: shared resources with no owner, states take more but everyone shares the cost equally, cooperation is beneficial to all but everyone is also incentivized to cheat, some are hit harder than others by costs even when they do not contribute as much to the problem.
Solutions: changing international norms, building international treaties to hold states accountable, incentivize cooperation through financial aid and trade opportunities, empower institutions to be able to have stronger enforcement powers, holding corporations responsible for failures to follow rules.

Sudan

Both sides are antagonistic, ethnic cleansing and persecution, little to no humanitarian efforts can reach Darfur, UAE is supporting the RSF for gold exports, Russia and others are supporting SAF for influence in the region, lack of civilian trust in institutions. First and foremost, humanitarian efforts need to be made, a trusted, neutral humanitarian force needs to be able to enter Sudan to provide food and medical support to locals. From there, a civilian-lead transition is necessary for lasting peace because the people are unlikely to trust institutions they did not create themselves. For this, a moderate and peaceful negotiator that is recognized by both the RSF and the SAF must lead peace talks.

4 models of nuclear deterrence

Security deterrence: prevent other states from attacking you through MAD
Domestic politics: Meant to improve a leader or government’s image to their own people, symbolize national strength, maybe to distract from problems
Norms: To enhance a states image and put it alongside other major powers, nuclear weapons are meant to display a state’s strength and power more than for practical use
Strategic Interaction: States build nuclear weaponry because their allies and rivals have, not because they themselves are necessarily seeking them. Some states do not because they feel protected by another state (South Korea does not have nuclear weaponry because the US says it will act on South Korea’s behalf)

Deterrence and cyberthreats

It is difficult because it is hard to attribute, states can easily deny, it isn’t an expensive way to attack, hard to define as a attack instead of a crime, constant attacks, defense is near impossible because the network is intentionally interconnected, infrastructure and corporate targets, does not follow traditional power balance because weaker states can feasibly attack stronger ones.