Cognitive Biases and Heuristics in Decision-Making: Psychology Notes

Bounded Rationality

Humans try to make rational decisions but our cognitive limitations prevent us from being rational.

Thinking

How we form judgments, make decisons, and reason

Heuristics

Availability, Representativeness, Illusory correlations

Availability Heuristic

We judge frequency by assessing the ease at which examples come to our mind. Events that are more easily remembered are judged as more probable.

Letter K problem

Are there more words that start with letter k or have k as third letter. (More with third letter, but people think start because of more availability)

representativeness heuristic

the tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood of an event by the extent to which it resembles the typical case. (Based on the assumption that categories are homogenous)

Generalization from a single case to the population

We generalize from a small sample to the whole population. (Prison Guard Study, Man who arguments)

Prison Guard Study

People were told that a prison guard's behavior was either typical or nontypical and then shown them acting with compassion or contempt.

Prison Guard Study findings

Found that regardless of whether they believed it to be typical or not, people largely based their conclusion on how they saw them acting.

illusory correlation

the perception of a relationship where none exists

"Man who" arguments

reasoning from a single case to an entire population. Arguing that smoking isn't that bad for you because that person's aunt smoked every day and lived to 90.

Reason-based choice

our goal is simply to make decisions that we feel good about. We want to avoid regretting our choice.

Orbitofrontal cortex damage

Right behind the eyes. Are not able to react to emotional stimuli and are indecisive.

Framing effect

The decision-making bias that results from the way a decision, question, or problem is worded

Disease Problem

People were risk aversive when there was an option of 200 confirmed people saved and a chance of saving 0 or 600 people and were risk seeking when there was an option of 400 confirmed people dead and a chance of saving 600 people or 0.

Emotions in decision making

Emotions play a large role. We are trying to forecast how we will feel with certain choices.

Predicting our own emotions

overestimate how much regret we feel and how long emotions will last

Well-defined problem

a problem with clear specifications of the start state, goal state, and the processes for reaching the goal state

Ill-defined problem

A problem lacking clear specification of either the start state, goal state, or the processes for reaching the goal state.

Problem

occurs when there is an obstacle between the

present state and a goal and it is not immediately obvious how to get around the obstacle.

Restructuring

Reorganization of a problem's representation

Circle Problem

Initial Representation: A circle divided by vertical and horizontal lines, with a small triangle in one quadrant.

Restructured Representation: Recognizing that the key segment (marked x) is the diagonal of a small rectangle within the circle.

Solution Insight: Since both diagonals of a rectangle are equal, x equals the circle's radius, r.

Insight

Sudden realization of a problem's solution

9 dot problem and triangle problem

Rely on insight

Wallas' 4 stages of problem solving

preparation, incubation, illumination, verification

Metcalfe and Wiebe (1987)

- Insight: triangle problem, chain problem

- Noninsight: algebra

- Warmth judgments every 15 seconds

- Insight problems solved suddenly

- Noninsight problems solved gradually

Is insight a premonition of the correct solution?

No. Both people who gave a correct answer and an incorrect answer had a sudden insight.

Why incubation may sometimes help

timing, mind wandering, dissipation of fatigue and frustration, forgetting

functional fixedness

the tendency to think of things only in terms of their usual functions; an impediment to problem solving

Candle problem

seeing boxes as containers inhibited using them as supports

Steel ring problem

Melt the candle wax, revealing the wick and then tie them together. Shows functional fixedness

Einstellung effect (Problem Solving Set)

the term used by Luchins to refer to the set effect, in which people repeat a solution that has worked for previous problems even when a simpler solution is possible

Water jug problem

Three water jugs with different volumes. Pour exactly 5 ounces into bucket. People then use the formula to do it for another similar problem, even when a much simpler solution is present.

Information processing approach

Problem solving is a search for a solution.

Operators

actions that take the problem from one state to another

Initial State

conditions at the beginning of the problem

Path constraint

A limit that rules out some operation in problem solving.

Goal state

condition that occurs when a problem has been solved

intermediate stage

Subgoals between the initial state and goal state

problem space

The initial state, goal state, and all the possible intermediate states for a particular problem.

Tower of Hanoi problem

A problem involving moving discs from one set of pegs to another. It has been used to illustrate the process involved in means-end analysis.

Means-end analysis

Create subgoals (intermediate states that are closer to the goal) to reduce the difference between the initial state and the end state.

mutilated checkerboard problem

Problem solving becomes easier when information is provided that helps

point people toward the correct representation of the problem.

Analogical transfer

Transferring experience in solving one problem to the solution of another, similar problem.

Mutilated checkerboard problem thing

Blank --> Color --> Black and Pink words --> bread and butter

Hill-climbing approach

always choosing the option that appears to most directly lead to the goal

River-crossing problem

Have to defy hill-climbing approach because you have to go backwards to go forward

Pictures and mental imagery

Help in problem-solving by giving a more concrete and visual manner to solve (Bookworm problem)

Steps of analogical transfer

Noticing relationship

Mapping correspondence between source and target

Applying mapping

Radiation problem study

Only 10 percent got it with no hint, 30 percent got it with source problem given but no indication that it would help, 75% got it when told explicitly that the fortress problem would help.

How to increase analogical transfer

Focus on deep structure of the problems

Target problem

the problem the subject is trying to solve

Source problem

A problem or story that is analogous to the target problem and which therefore provides information that can lead to a solution to the target problem.

Surface features

specific elements that make up a problem

Differences between experts and novices

-Amount of knowledge

-Organization of knowledge

-More time analyzing the problem

Chess positions study

Chess experts remembered positions of chess pieces much better than novices. Only when chess pieces were in an organization that made sense in the confines of chess.

Physics problem study

Physics professors sorted physics problems by deep structure (similar physics principles) while students sorted by surface features (similar objects)

Divergent thinking

Thinking that is open-ended,

involving a large number of potential "solutions"

Creativity

anything made by people that is in some way novel

and has potential value

Creative minds

Great knowledge and skill in their domain

• Certain personality traits (e.g., willingness to take risks)

• Internal motivation

• A bit of luck

Life form generation task

People were told to design new creatures that don't exist. Some participants were shown three examples for 90 seconds while others waited for 90 seconds. The people who got examples incorporated features present in those examples more often than the people who waited.

Takeaways from Life form generation study

Preconceptions can hinder creativity. Examples served as mental sets.

Mental Set

a tendency to approach a problem in one particular way, often a way that has been successful in the past

Group vs. Individual brainstorming

Individual brainstorming works better

Swedish Study

Individuals in creative professions were not more likely than the general population to have psychiatric disorders

Close relatives

Close relatives of people diagnosed with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder

• had a higher chance of being in a creative profession

• scored higher on creativity tests

Latent Inhibition

Ability to screen out stimuli that are considered irrelevant

Carson et al

Participants with low LI had higher creativity.

Especially strong association for individuals with high IQ

LI effect on creativity

LI might enhance creativity by increasing the unfiltered stimuli available to

conscious awareness which increases the possibility of creating useful and novel

combinations of stimuli.