Southern Pols Final

Punctuated Equilibrium model

a model used to show political party realignment, one theory

more likely what happen with WHITE VOTING PATERNS

s curve model, gradual change over time

critical election model

a model used to show political party realignment

shows an exact moment in time when there was realignemnt

probs what happened with Black voting patters in the 1964 election

Stable alignment

eye for eye

where specific demographic, social, or economic groups reliably favor one party over time. This creates predictable voting behavior, low electoral volatility, and consistent partisan

Dealignment vs realignment

While dealignment refers to a weakening of ties, realignment occurs when a new, lasting party system replaces the old one.

Dealignment

move away from established parties without forming new, long-term partisan attachments.

Realignment

Political realignment is a dramatic, lasting shift in voter coalitions, ideology, and party power, often triggered by national crises or critical elections. It restructures the political landscape for decades, replacing old dominant coalitions. This differs from routine "alignment," where voters consistently support a specific party

ANES

American national Election Study

a longitudinal set of data since 1952 that has been surveying peoples political prefrences

Are you republican or democratic, Strong or weak? Do you lean towards one party or lean Independent

7 point scale

SC, WD, LD, I, LR, WR, SR

When did white southerns undergo dealignment

1970’s move from Dem —> independent —> eventually GOP

sources of partisan changes in this era

in-migration: move from non south to south, helped republican party

individual defection: a person changing their party identification

generatinal change: younger gen tends to be more republican and dems dying out

Panel Vs survey

panel is same group of people over time, allows for strong causating inference but people drop out an die

Did white people get more republican from 1952-98?

average white southern became 1.8 points more republican, half due to cohort replacement half due to conversion

How to measure class based divisions

income, family based, individual, net worth, education level and job type

post VRA what is the dividing line

less the racial question and more the economic questions

what economic class starts to join republicans

lower income third

diploma divide

divide between those why vote/spoort trump versus not supporting him

the rational southerner

black mobilization, republican growth and the partisian transformation of the american south

what party starts to grow in the south post VRA

republican party

Evidence that republican party grew tremendously in the south

republican win offices at every level in south

In 2016, the GOP held majority control in 22 of 22 state legislative chambers

evidence of political change in south

black mobilization

Theories of southern partisan change

Demographic change: in migration

economics: class-based politics

religionL evangelical support

race: black mobilization into the dems

how did republican growth occur across the south

non uniform, not in the same places at the same time

what influences the decision to support a particular political party

relative competitive across a wide variety of arenas (viability)

the relative consistency of a partys political objectives with a citizens’s (control)

theory of relative advantage for white southerners

republican party support became more valuable based on:

1) democratic party monopoly over party nominates broken

2) black mobilization makes it difficult for conservative whites to maintain control of the democratic party at the local level

Theory of relative advantage for black southerns

democratic party became more valuable becase

1) the relative size of the current black mobilized population

2) the relative size of the black population

3) recent republican growth

Deep south has what type of relationship happening within in it

a feedback loop between black mobilization and GOP growth

Rim south has what type of relationship happening within it

one-way causality: black mobilization and GOP growth

GOP Development Virgina

republicans are in the mountains, Appalachia Virginia

pre civil rights:

old guard faction led by Robert Taft vs young bloods, ww2 vets that wanted change led by Eisenhower

democratic party controlled by conservative BYRD organization, hated brown v board,

conter faction was the anti-byrd faction, not very organized

post ww2

veterans no longer want the byrds, young bloods want education and infrastructure

Linwood Holton elected governon 1970-1974

• progressive republican

change in virginia republican party starts to happen in late 60’s early 70’s

more conservative + republicans becoming conservative —> republican party in virgina is rep by conservative whites and dems by progressive white

LinWood Holton

As Virginia's first Republican governor since Reconstruction (1970–1974), A. Linwood Holton Jr. was a moderate/progressive Republican whose ideology prioritized racial integration, civil rights, and pragmatic governing over strict partisan ideology. He broke the "Massive Resistance" era by advocating for school integration and appointing African Americans to state positions

Byrd Faction

Virginia state wide

• pro business

• anti-new deal

• anti labor

• fiscally conservative

• racially conservative

• loved segregation, would rather shut down public school that intergrate

GOP development Georgia

Pre civil rights

talmadge (conservative) vs anti talmadge (less conservative) faction

no legit republican party, only cared about presidential election

republican party, nationally, is having a rift between taft vs Eisenhower faction

1964 CRA

Golderwites scandal —> shows black conservatives to side with republicans

1966 governonrs race

Candidiates:

1) Bo callaway, segregationist

2) Lester Madix, VERY segr. WINS

3) ellis arnold, 3govs dude

election: callaway wins plurality, but not majority so legislature decides and its given to maddox because most conservative (still a dem)

Goldwatererites

people in favore of Barry Goldwater winning the presidency ( R, very libertarian from arizona, ran against LBJ)

Goldwater wins GA, looses presidency

becomes senator

not for CRA

what lead to two party growth in the south/ what lead to the republican party to keep growing (deep south vs rim south)

deep sotuh

black mobilization —> positive gop growth —> more black mobilization (positive feed back loop)

rim south

black mobilization —> gop grwoth end

top down approach of two party development

GOP growth starts at presidential level and filters down

bottom up approach to two party development

start at local level offices and filters up

** issue with this, to win you usually need a quality challenger (someone who has held office and needs a candidate to win an election) south had no GOP quality challengers

how do we measure GOP strength

the vote index

which measures

republican gubernatorial + senate + congressional election results and average them

Independent variables of GOP strength

Sub state party competition has a stat significant positive relation

• # of state senate seats contested and won

• # of state house seats contested and won

presidential vote (top down approach)

black electoral strength: primary explanitory variable, does increase in it lead to growth in GOP

in migration

% of evangelical protestant (stat +)

per capita income

agriculutal employment

Conclusions to what lead to the growth of the republican party in the south

bottom up approach: like yas

economic growth/class based theory: nope

religion: some

relative advantage theory: yes, but not until late 70’s and 80’s

GOP strength comes mostly from black registration and sub state party competition 

Relative advantage theory of GOP growth

what is this

as black registration increases, two party growtn increases

Black mobilization and regions of south

rim south: no relationship

deep south: BM = republican strength

county level: BM = republican strehgn

** need significant black population for this to happen (high supply of registrant) why it doesnt affect rim south as much

Section 5 VRA retrogression standard

assures that the plan would not cause future discrimination, prohibits voting behaviors that would diminish the ability of minority voters to elect their candidates of choice, ensures minority voters are not “worse off” after redistricting

Mobile V. Bolden

Plantiff had to prove intent of discrimination not just effect

Traditional Redistricting Criteria

population equalization (most important)

compactness

contiguity

preserving community of interest

core retention

incumbent protection

population equalization

congressional district have to have the same population, zero deviation is allowed, like same within margins of a few people

other distritcs (state house) more leniency, ± 5 point of ideal district size

compactness

ideal is circle

contiguity

it has to be connected, can cross a body of water

preserving community interest

repect for existing political boundaries

core retention

keep same constituents for incumbent

incumbent protection,

how many incumbents were double bumped, incumbent vs incumbent

Apportionment

a head count, a numeration —> everybody gets counted towards representation (undoc, non voting age.._

how many seats are in the house and senate

capped at 435, if some states win seats others must loose, + 100 senators

california lost a seat in 2020

south has been regularly picking up seats post ww2, more people moving to south

How do courts determine if there was a section 2 violation (prohibits voting procedures that denies right to vote on account of race (redistricting matters) it is permanent)

Thornburg V. Gingles (1986)

• to prove effect (not intent) retrospectively (the plan already exists and something it wrong with it)

Gingles test

plantiff must prove

1) the minority group can costiute a majority in a single member district and is geographically compact

2) the minority is politically cohesive

• are they voting similarly/ is there a clear candidiate of choice for the minority = 51%+ for a specific candidate

• is there racially polarized voting occuring in terms of effect

3) is the minority candidate of choice typically defeated by a majority white voting bloc

Effects of Gingles

1) more single member districts that majority/minority —> that are black = more minority rep in legislature

2) elected more democratic (the party) legislature —>  if you are compacting democratic voters in a district, less are spread out, easier for republicans to win other districts and the conservative democrat disappears 

3) lots of new lawsuits, a lot of districts were diluting the minority vote

Example of a crazy redistrict

North Carolina 12

Shaw v Reno (1993)

you can’t gerrymander based solely on race because equal protection

Miller V. Johnson (1995) GA

you can’t gerrymander based predominantly on race, lowers threshold

Strict Scrutiny

Race cannot be predominant factor, there has to be a compelling gov reason. If plan is sketch it goes under strict scuitny and the state has to prove to USSC that there is a narrowly tailored compelling government interest in the plan

Shelby County post Section 2

double bind: if you ingonre section 2 —> vote dilution lawsuite, if you abide by section 2 —> Shaw racial predominance suite

if you use race it must be narrowly and carefully

must show legally significant racially polarized voting

lawsuits happen in district-by-district basis

what is legally significant racially polarized voting

is there a clear candidate of choice?/minority cohesion

does the majority have a diff candidate of choice/majority cohesion

is the minority candidate of choice usually defeated

does section 5 still exist

no!!

Robinson V. Landry LA

states gets lawsuits for racial packing and racial gerrymandering —> section 2 vs 14th amendments —> states are looking for guidance from courts because double bind

Lousiana V. Callais 92025-2026) waiting on court decision

section 2 vs the 14 amendment

Milligan v. Merril

alabama doing some vote dilution and need to create another black minority majority district

Glenymary studies

private org that takes census on people religious beliefs and membership data

aggregate level, membership are you protestant?

ANES

survey data

individual level, what type pf protestant are you? how often do you go to church?

how do they measure attendance data in surveys

high commitment or low commitment

Where is the highest level of evangelical protestants + how recent is using religion as diving line in politics

in the south (31% in 2024 but also increase in nonaffilition), recent

does religion and voting patterns matter with Black people

no, mostly will still vote dem

Evangelical protestants of high commitment voting republican almost == black americans in voting for dems 

true

White Evangelicals and Republican party

core demographic, especially in the south

evangelical loyalty started before trump

socially conservative

Section 2 vs Article 1 section 4 of constitution

Article 1. section 4 “Time, places and manner” states have the power to decide their own elections, but congress can alter

Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee (2021)

• first USSC about vote denial under section 2, happened in Arizona

• are out of precinct voting and ballot harvesting constitution under section 2?

  • using GUIDE POSTS found it did not

out of precinct voting

if you vote in wrong precinct, it doesn’t count

ballot harvesting

bulk collection of absentee by mail in ballots

Guide posts under Bronvich v. democratic national committee

1. Size of the burden imposed by challenged voting rules?

   1. A mere inconvenience is not enough

2. The degree to which a voting rule departs from what was standard in 1982

   1. 1982 VRA gets amended, you no longer had to prove intent, just effect 

   2. GA 1982 only allowed in person voting on election day or valid excuse absentee ballots 

3. The size of the racial disparity

   1. Presence is not enough, significant presence  

4. Must consider the states entire voting system and the opportunities therein 

5. What is the strength of the state interest 

   1. Why is the state doing it, is there a reason for it?

SB 202 and some important changes

GA bill in response to 2020 elections and low voter confidence, changed a lot of stuff

absentee ballot verification

• before: signature match

• after: drivers license/state ID number on the ballot

Absentee Ballot request deadline

• before: 180 days to 4 days prior to election day

• after: 78 days -11 days prior to election

Poll Workers:

• beofre: must live in the county where you work

• after: can live outside

Scanning absentee ballot

before: election day

after: can begin on third monday prior to election day

voter confidence in the wake of SB 202

voter confidence increased for all voters of all parties

SB 202 Election Integrity Act

comprehensive law enacted to modify state election procedures, focusing on voter id requirements and absentee ballots 

Rural Republican Realignment in the Modern South

realignment of rural southern whites from solid democrats to stalwart republicans

how to measure this: new measure: Small town south instead of just rural and urban (categories put in place by census since 1800’s)

there are differences between rural and urban whites

STS by the numbers

Urban Clusters < 20,000 + Rural = STS

Rural vs STS

Rural: identify as republican and conservative, gun owners, more religious, more evangelical adherence and more church attendance

STS: small town south whites and GOP coalition

** in the south there are more rural white than urban whites

Reagan (1980/90’s) vs Post-Trump coalition

Reagan:

• internationalists (anti communism, and pro free trade)

• fiscally and socially conservative

Post Trump Populism

• anti free trade

• kinda protectionist, anti foreign aid and immigration

• socially conservative

• populist topics (no one is talking about budget or debt crisis)

demographics of white in south

rural white electorate is shrinking + not a lot nonsouth in migration

Hispanic data starting 1980 (bc thats when census started asking)

started in texas and south florida but have difused over the south in recent years, especially. in georgia

how important are hispanics in politics (stair step of political influence)

population —> voting age population —> citizen age population —> registered —> voters

growth-citizenship dichotomy: lots of growth in the group but many non citizens

which way to hispanics tend to vote

2020 dem

2024 republican