Understanding Probability and Uncertainty

These flashcards cover key concepts of probability as discussed in the lecture, including distinctions between a priori, statistical, estimated probabilities, and the definitions of risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity.

A priori probability

Probability that is deduced or calculated independent of experience.

Statistical probability

Probability that is based on data and historical records rather than deductions.

Estimated probability

Probability inferred when there is insufficient data to make a statistical probability, but an educated guess can be formulated.

Risk

Quantifiable probability that can be calculated based on known data.

Uncertainty

State of not knowing where probability is not quantifiable and may not include all possible outcomes.

Ambiguity

A form of uncertainty where the outcomes are known but probabilities of these outcomes are unclear or unknown.

Example of a priori probability

Calculating the chance of rolling a three on a fair six-sided die.

Example of statistical probability

Using a baseball player's past performance data to estimate their probability of getting a hit.

Difference between risk and uncertainty

Risk is measurable and calculable, whereas uncertainty is unquantifiable.