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Risk
The objective likelihood or chance of experiencing negative events, calculated by probability times the severity of the consequences
Hazard
A situation or object that poses a possibility of harm; it only becomes a risk when there is action or exposure
First-order uncertainty (aleatory)
Things we simply cannot know
Second-order uncertainty (epistemic)
Things we do not know yet but could potentially learn
Unknown unknowns
Completely unforeseen events or threats that we are not even aware we do not know
Risk communication
The interactive process of exchange of knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, and opinions related to risks between individuals and institutions
VUCA world
An environment characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity
Industrial modernity
The first age of modernization focused on material wealth, avoiding scarcity, and controlling nature, where risks were visible and physically bound
Reflexive modernity
A mature phase of modernity where traditional frameworks are abandoned, forcing society to critically reflect on the uncertainties and unintended side-effects of its own progress
Risk society
A modern society characterized by a collective awareness of, and a deep vulnerability to, unpredictable, invisible, and human-made technological hazards
Manufactured risks
Threats that do not occur naturally, but are the unintended, complex result of human intervention, scientific knowledge, and technology
Borderless risks
Modern hazards that cannot be contained and cross national borders, social classes, and generations
Invisible risks
Threats that exist on a molecular or subatomic level and only become visible and measurable through scientific intervention
Actual risks
The objective, mathematically calculated statistical probability of a hazard occurring
Perceived risks
The subjective and often emotional way in which individuals or groups estimate and experience hazards, which can deviate strongly from statistics
Organized irresponsibility
The structural inability and unwillingness of modern institutions and insurers to formally take accountability for large-scale technological damage
Facework commitment
Traditional trust placed in known individuals and personal, local relationships
Faceless commitment (faceless trust)
The necessary blind trust that citizens in modern times must place in impersonal, abstract expert systems replacing local trust
Reflexivity
A process of continuous monitoring, surveillance, and making adjustments to one's life and environment as new information becomes available
Life politics
Political concerns focused primarily on improving the quality of life, lifestyle choices, and protecting health and the environment
Authoritarian-technocracy
A system where actual power and decision-making over crucial issues are removed from the democratic process and given to unelected scientific experts
What is the definition of risk according to Spiegelhalter (2017)?
Undesirable things that might happen
How does Gigerenzer (2023) describe risk?
The objective likelihood or chance of experiencing negative events
How is a risk mathematically calculated?
By multiplying the likelihood of an unwanted event (probability) by the magnitude of the consequences (severity)
How do Aven & Renn (2009) define risk?
Uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of an activity with respect to something that humans value
What are the two main dimensions of risk according to Slovic (2016)?
Controllability (can we manage it?) and knowability (do we understand it?)
What are the two main factors of risk perception according to Slovic (2016)?
Factor 1: Dread risk and Factor 2: Unknown risk
What is the exact formula that illustrates how a hazard transforms into a risk?
Hazard + action (exposure)
What is the central question asked in the field of risk communication?
Who communicates what in what form to whom to what effect?
How were hazards perceived during "fatalistic pre-modernity"?
There was no real risk awareness; events were just things that happened
What do the letters in the VUCA acronym stand for?
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity
What does the "Volatility" aspect of a VUCA world refer to?
Unexpected things that can fluctuate
What does the "Ambiguity" aspect of a VUCA world refer to?
People not speaking the same language or lacking a shared meaning (e.g., different understandings of climate change)
What is the primary goal of risk management?
To minimize risks as much as possible, such as making Formula 1 cars as safe as possible
What are the six parameters of the risk society?
What is the paradox of producing more scientific knowledge in a risk society?
It actually leads to greater unawareness because it undermines absolute truths and constantly reveals new, unexpected dangers
According to the lectures on risk and trust, what specific distinction do people make regarding their trust in science?
People often trust the individual scientist, but they do not trust science as an overarching institution
What is the psychological result of society's increasing dependence on expert systems when those systems fail?
It produces the exact opposite of trust, leading to severe anxiety and doubt
What are the two major critiques of the risk society theory?
It focuses too much on risk avoidance (ignoring the benefits of positive risks) and it is biased towards Western technological threats (ignoring traditional hazards like poverty and infectious diseases)