Population Aging in the Process of Chinese-Style Modernization

This set of vocabulary flashcards covers demographic trends, economic impacts, and policy responses related to population aging in China as discussed in the lecture notes.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Replacement Level

The level of fertility required to maintain a stable population, identified as $2.1$.

Population Momentum

The period from when the total fertility rate falls below the replacement level to the point when the population reaches its peak.

Crude Birth Rate

The number of live births per thousand people; in China, this fell from $18.24$ per thousand in $1992$ to $6.77$ per thousand in $2024$.

Working-age Population

The demographic group aged $15–64$ years, which in China began to decline in $2014$.

Aging Society

A society where the proportion of the population aged $65$ and above reaches $7\%$.

Aged Society

A society where the proportion of the population aged $65$ and above reaches $14\%$; China entered this stage with a rate of $15.64\%$ in $2024$.

Super-aged Society

A society where the proportion of the population aged $65$ and above reaches $21\%$; China is projected to reach $21.06\%$ by $2032$.

Natural Rate of Population Increase

The statistical difference between the birth rate and the death rate within a specific region.

Mechanical Rate of Population Increase

The statistical difference between the in-migration rate and the out-migration rate within a specific region.

Three Horses Pulling the Carriage

A metaphor for the structure of aggregate social demand, where household consumption is expected to play a greater role in maintaining sustainable economic growth.

Silver Economy

The economic sector focused on meeting the basic pension, consumption, and care needs of the elderly to stimulate consumption potential.

Secular Stagnation

A macroeconomic phenomenon observed in some developed countries characterized by low inflation, low interest rates, low growth, and high debt due to population aging and excessive savings.

Aging Before Affluence

A characteristic of China's modernization where the aging rate ($15\%$) is notably higher than the world average ($10\%$) despite having a similar per capita GNI.

Human Capital Dividend

A new demographic dividend cultivated by raising the quality of the population through education, childcare, lifelong learning, and vocational training rather than relying on labor quantity.

Peak-cutting and Valley-filling

The strategic coordination and integration of educational resources to address the quantitative reduction and structural changes in the school-age population.

Household Registration System Reform

The dismantling of institutional barriers to population migration to enable migrant workers to register residency in their places of employment and equalize basic public services.

Silver-haired Strength

The potential economic contribution realized by bringing into play the human resources of older workers and the consumption capacity of the elderly population.

Non-cognitive Capabilities

Soft skills cultivated during education that are not easily substituted by artificial intelligence.

Twelve-year Basic Education Guarantee System

A proposed educational framework that incorporates high school into compulsory education and promotes universal coverage of the final year of preschool.